Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessment. A case study from the Ebro Valley evaporite alluvial karst (NE Spain)

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km² year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology (precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km²) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km² year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km² year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence. Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes.     

Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.     

Modeling households’ decisions on reconstruction of houses damaged by earthquakes––Japanese case study

In this study, households’ decisions on reconstruction of damaged houses were modeled, using questionnaire data in Japan. Characteristics of households’ decisions were investigated using parameter estimation results. The effects of subsidizing policy were evaluated as follows. First, subsidy for rebuilding may be effective for the households whose houses were heavily damaged. Second, there is a possibility that subsidy accelerated rebuilding of houses by the households having children. Third, subsidy for rebuilding may not be effective for elderly people’s households and households in depopulated areas.     

Numerical modeling of tide-surge interaction along Orissa coast of India

The Orissa coast of India is one of the most vulnerable regions of extreme sea levels associated with severe tropical cyclones. There was extensive loss of life and property due to the October 1999 super cyclone, which devastated large part of the Orissa coast. The shallow nature of the head bay, presence of a large number of deltas formed by major rivers of Orissa such as Mahanadi and Dhamra, and high tidal range are responsible for storm surge flooding in the region. Specifically, rising and falling tidal phases influence the height, duration, and arrival time of peak surge along the coast. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the tide-surge interaction during the 1999 Orissa cyclone by using nonlinear vertically integrated numerical models. The pure tidal solution for the head bay region of the Bay of Bengal provides the initial condition for the fine resolution nested grid Orissa model. However, the feedback from the Orissa model does not affect the head bay model as the study provides a one-way interaction. Numerical experiments are performed to study the tide-surge interaction by considering various relative phases of the tidal waves with the surge-wave produced by 1999 Orissa cyclone. The comparison, although utilizing only the limited estimates of tidal data, appears adequate to assert that the principal features are reproduced correctly.     

Si diffusion in zircon

Self-diffusion of Si under anhydrous conditions at 1 atm has been measured in natural zircon. The source of diffusant for experiments was a mixture of ZrO₂ and ³⁰Si-enriched SiO₂ in 1:1 molar proportions; experiments were run in crimped Pt capsules in 1-atm furnaces. ³⁰Si profiles were measured with both Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and nuclear reaction analysis with the resonant nuclear reaction ³⁰Si(p,γ)³¹P. For Si diffusion normal to c over the temperature range 1,350–1,550°C, we obtain an Arrhenius relation D = 5.8 exp(−702 ± 54 kJ mol⁻¹/RT) m² s⁻¹ for the NRA measurements, which agrees within uncertainty with an Arrhenius relation determined from the RBS measurements [62 exp(−738 ± 61 kJ mol⁻¹/RT) m² s⁻¹]. Diffusion of Si parallel to c appears slightly faster, but agrees within experimental uncertainty at most temperatures with diffusivities for Si normal to c. Diffusion of Si in zircon is similar to that of Ti, but about an order of magnitude faster than diffusion of Hf and two orders of magnitude faster than diffusion of U and Th. Si diffusion is, however, many orders of magnitude slower than oxygen diffusion under both dry and hydrothermal conditions, with the difference increasing with decreasing temperature because of the larger activation energy for Si diffusion. If we consider Hf as a proxy for Zr, given its similar charge and size, we can rank the diffusivities of the major constituents in zircon as follows: D _Zr < D _Si << D _{O, dry} < D _{O, ‘wet’}.     

Room-temperature equation of state of Li<Subscript>2</Subscript>VOSiO<Subscript>4</Subscript> up to 8.5 GPa

High-pressure single-crystal X-ray diffraction measurements of lattice parameters of the compound Li₂VOSiO₄, which crystallises with a natisite-type structure, has been carried out to a pressure of 8.54(5) GPa at room temperature. Unit-cell volume data were fitted with a second-order Birch-Murnaghan EoS (BM-EoS), simultaneously refining V ₀ and K ₀ using the data weighted by the uncertainties in V. The bulk modulus is K ₀ = 99(1) GPa, with K′ fixed to 4. Refinements of third order equations-of-state yielded values of K′ that did not differ significantly from 4. The compressibility of the unit-cell is strongly anisotropic with the c axis (K ₀(c) = 49.7 ± 0.5 GPa) approximately four times more compressible than the a axis (K ₀(a) = 195 ± 3 GPa).     

Structural investigation of the synthetic CaAn(PO4)2 (An = Th and Np) cheralite-like phosphates

The crystallographic structures of the synthetic cheralite, CaTh(PO₄)₂, and its homolog CaNp(PO₄)₂ have been investigated by X-ray diffraction at room temperature. Rietveld analyses showed that both compounds crystallize in the monoclinic system and are isostructural to monazite LnPO₄ (Ln = La to Gd). The space group is P2₁/n (I.T. = 14) with Z = 2. The refined lattice parameters of CaTh(PO₄)₂ are a = 6.7085(8) Å, b = 6.9160(6) Å, c = 6.4152(6) Å, and β = 103.71(1)° with best fit parameters R _wp = 4.87%, R _p = 3.69% and R _B = 3.99%. For CaNp(PO₄)₂, we obtained a = 6.6509(5) Å, b = 6.8390(3) Å, c = 6.3537(8) Å, and β = 104.12(6)° and R _wp = 6.74%, R _p = 5.23%, and R _B = 6.05%. The results indicate significant distortions of bond length and angles of the PO₄ tetrahedra in CaTh(PO₄)₂ and to a lesser extent in CaNp(PO₄)₂. The structural distortions were confirmed by Raman spectroscopy of CaTh(PO₄)₂. A comparison with the isostructural compounds LnPO₄ (Ln = Ce and Sm) confirmed that the substitution of the large rare earth trivalent cations with Ca²⁺ and Th⁴⁺ introduces a distortion of the PO₄ tetrahedra.     

Optical spectrum based measurement of flotation slurry contents

Monitoring and control of a flotation circuit is mainly based on the information gained by assaying the process slurry lines. In flotation plants, usually an X-ray fluorescence analyzer is used to obtain the on-line assays. This article introduces the visual and near-infrared reflectance spectroscopic analysis of the process slurries as a supplementary method which complements the on-line assay information available from an X-ray fluorescence analyzer. It is shown that the spectral information can be used to accurately predict the element contents in the slurry in between successive XRF analyses. Since the spectral measurements can be taken with high frequency as opposed to the sparse X-ray fluorescence analysis, a practically continuous on-line estimate of the slurry contents is reached. These estimates can be used in the plant control to improve the overall performance of the circuits and to yield also economical savings. Additionally, the frequent monitoring of the grades can provide means to eliminate rapid disturbances in the circuits, thus improving the stability of the process.     

The spatial implications of the functional proximity deriving from air passenger flows between European metropolitan urban regions

Until recently the traditional spatial configuration of the European geography was based upon the core-periphery model. The ‘pentagon’, broadly defined as lying between London, Paris, Milan, Munich and Hamburg, was seen as the core area characterised by having the highest concentration of economic development in the European Union (EU), with the remainder of the European territory viewed as peripheral, albeit to varying degrees. In a number of cases such peripheral areas equated with clear regional disparities. The elaboration of the European Spatial Development Perspective (ESDP) (CEC, European spatial development perspective, towards balanced and sustainable development in the territory of the European Union, 1999) challenged this core-periphery model. European spatial planning policies, aimed at encouraging social and economic, and with ever increasing importance, territorial cohesion, seek amongst other aspects to encourage the development of a balanced and polycentric urban system. This paper adopts a network analysis approach to the analysis of air passenger flows between some 28 principal European metropolitan urban regions. The evaluation of these flows contributes to an enhanced comprehension of the spatial dynamics of the European metropolitan territory which goes beyond that deriving from the more standard analyses of the individual components of the urban system. Several indicators are used, deriving from gravitational modelling techniques, to analyse the complexity of the air passenger flows. A multidimensional scaling (MDS) technique is introduced in order to interpret and visualise the resulting spatial configuration and positioning of the different metropolitan centres within the conceptual European ‘space of air passenger flows’, thereby contrasting with the more traditional map-based geographical image of Europe, based upon Cartesian coordinates.

Influence of Structural Non-Stationarity of Surface Roughness on Morphological Characterization and Mechanical Deformation of Rock Joints

Summary Structural non-stationarity of surface roughness affects accurate morphological characterization as well as mechanical behaviour of rock joints at the laboratory scale using samples with a size below the stationarity threshold. In this paper, the effect of structural non-stationarity of surface roughness is investigated by studying the scale dependence of surface roughness and mechanical behaviour of rock joints. The results show that the structural non-stationarity mainly affects the accurate characterization of the surface roughness of the fracture samples. It also controls the amount and location of the contact areas during shear tests, which in turn affects the mechanical properties and asperity degradation of the samples. It is concluded that for accurate determination of the morphological and mechanical properties of rock joints at laboratory and field scales, samples with size equal to or larger than the stationarity threshold are required. Author’s address: Nader Fardin, Rock Mechanics Group, Department of Mining Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Tehran, P.O. Box: 11365/4563, Tehran, Iran