A Critical Analysis of a Recent Test of the Lense–Thirring Effect with the LAGEOS Satellites

In this paper, we quantitatively discuss the impact of the current uncertainties in the even zonal harmonic coefficients J _l of the Newtonian part of the terrestrial gravitational potential on the measurement of the general relativistic Lense–Thirring effect. We use a suitable linear combination of the nodes Ω of the laser-ranged LAGEOS and LAGEOS-II satellites. The one-sigma systematic error due to mismodelling of the J _l coefficients ranges from ~ 4% for the EIGEN−GRACE02S gravity field model to ~ 9% for the GGM02S model. Another important source of systematic error of gravitational origin is represented by the secular variations j _l of the even zonal harmonics. While the relativistic and J _l signals are linear in time, the shift due to j _l is quadratic. We quantitatively assess their impact on the measurement of the Lense–Thirring effect with numerical simulations obtaining a 10−20% one-sigma total error over 11 years for EIGEN-GRACE02S. Ciufolini and Pavlis (Nature 431:958–960, 2004) claim a total error of 5% at the one-sigma level.     

利用地震数据预测煤系地层裂隙

煤系地层内的裂隙是煤层气积聚的主要场所，同时也是地下水富集、运移的重要条件。煤炭生产过程中防止瓦斯爆炸和突水淹井需要完成的一项重要任务是煤系地层裂隙带的预测和圈定，但采用传统的纵波地震勘探方法只能识别较大的断层，却难以提取相对微观的裂隙信息，其中的一个重要原因在于单靠纵波区分裂隙层反射和岩性反射存在困难。基于三维三分量（3D3C）反射地震数据预测裂隙带的核心是高裂隙密度带会引起反射转换PS波的振幅异常。初步研究表明，PS波振幅异常有望成为强裂隙探测的有力判据。     

Temporal and spatial variations of δ18O in precipitation of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin

This paper reveals the temporal and spatial variations of stable isotope in precipita-tion of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin based on the variations of δ18O in precipitation at four stations (Lhaze, Nugesha, Yangcun and Nuxia) in 2005. The results show that δ18O of pre-cipitation has distinct seasonal changes in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin. The higher value of δ18O occurs in spring prior to monsoon precipitation, and the lower value occurs during monsoon precipitation. From the spatial variations, with the altitude-effect and rainout process during moisture transport along the Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, 18O of precipitation is gradually depleted. Thus, δ18O of precipitation decreases gradually from the downstream to the upstream, and the lapse rate of δ18O in precipitation is approximately 0.34‰/100m and 0.7‰/100km for the two reasons. During monsoon precipitation, spatial variation of δ18O in precipitation is dominated by the amount effect in the large scale synoptic condition.     

地震勘探技术新进展——中国地球物理学会年会地震新技术简介

2006年10月中旬在成都召开了中国地球物理学会年会,这次年会对几十个地球物理学术理论与其应用领域进行了学术交流,其中一些地震勘探新技术,值得从事煤炭地震勘探的同行们借鉴,如饱和激发、山地高精度定位、精细表层调查等复杂山地地震采集技术,振幅补偿、叠前时间偏移、层析静校正等资料处理技术,三维地震数据可视化解释技术以及基于CMP理论的横向分辨率控制方法等.     

The Tsunami of 26 December, 2004: Numerical Modeling and Energy Considerations

A numerical model for the global tsunamis computation constructed by Kowalik et al. (2005), is applied to the tsunami of 26 December, 2004 in the World Ocean from 80°S to 69°N with spatial resolution of one minute. Because the computational domain includes close to 200 million grid points, a parallel version of the code was developed and run on a Cray X1 supercomputer. An energy flux function is used to investigate energy transfer from the tsunami source to the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Although the first energy input into the Pacific Ocean was the primary (direct) wave, reflections from the Sri Lankan and eastern shores of Maldives were a larger source. The tsunami traveled from Indonesia, around New Zealand, and into the Pacific Ocean by various routes. The direct path through the deep ocean to North America carried miniscule energy, while the stronger signal traveled a considerably longer distance via South Pacific ridges as these bathymetric features amplified the energy flux vectors. Travel times for these amplified energy fluxes are much longer than the arrival of the first wave. These large fluxes are organized in the wave-like form when propagating between Australia and Antarctica. The sources for the larger fluxes are multiple reflections from the Seychelles, Maldives and a slower direct signal from the Bay of Bengal. The energy flux into the Atlantic Ocean shows a different pattern since the energy is pumped into this domain through the directional properties of the source function. The energy flow into the Pacific Ocean is approximately 75% of the total flow to the Atlantic Ocean. In many locations along the Pacific and Atlantic coasts, the first arriving signal, or forerunner, has lower amplitude than the main signal which often is much delayed. Understanding this temporal distribution is important for an application to tsunami warning and prediction.     

Modelling offshore sand wave evolution

We present a two-dimensional vertical (2DV) flow and morphological numerical model describing the behaviour of offshore sand waves. The model contains the 2DV shallow water equations, with a free water surface and a general bed load formula. The water movement is coupled to the sediment transport equation by a seabed evolution equation. Using this model, we investigate the evolution of sand waves in a marine environment. As a result, we find sand wave saturation for heights of 10–30% of the average water depth on a timescale of decades. The stabilization mechanism, causing sand waves to saturate, is found to be based on the balance between the shear stress at the seabed and the principle that sediment is transported more easily downhill than uphill. The migration rate of the sand waves decreases slightly during their evolution. For a unidirectional steady flow the sand waves become asymmetrical in the horizontal direction and for a unidirectional block current asymmetrical in the vertical. A sensitivity analysis showed the slope effect of the sediment transport plays an important role herein. Furthermore, the magnitude of the resistance at the seabed and the eddy viscosity influence both the timescale and height of sand waves. The order of magnitudes found of the time and spatial scales coincide with observations made in the southern bight of the North Sea, Japan and Spain.     

Applicability of P/S amplitude ratios for the discrimination of low magnitude seismic events

Applicability of regional P/S amplitude ratios for the discrimination of low-magnitude seismic events was tested and proved using earthquakes and explosions in Central Asia. Results obtained show that regional P/S amplitude ratios which may discriminate medium or large magnitude events well, are also applicable to low magnitude events. Their performances for low magnitude events are almost as good as that for medium or large events. Statistical comparisons based on 25 P/S discriminate from the four seismic stations WMQ, BLK, MUL and MAK showed that the average misclassification rate for low-magnitude seismic events averagely was only 2 percent higher than that for medium and large magnitude seismic events.     

关于琼东南盆地始新统地层研究的思考

始新统湖相地层是琼东南盆地原油勘探领域的主力烃源岩,历年来各轮资源评价结果均显示具有较好的石油勘探前景,但自1987年Ying9井首次钻遇油层至今,琼东南盆地原油勘探领域一直未取得重大突破。近年来寄予厚望的S3X井钻探失利具有一定典型性,笔者等以S3X井钻后分析为契机,通过与珠江口和北部湾盆地始新统地层对比研究,提出了不同于以往的看法。分析显示琼东南盆地已发现原油中,源于低等水生生物的C₃₀4-甲基甾烷含量,以及反映氧化还原条件的姥植比(Pr/Ph)参数,均弱于珠江口和北部湾盆地半深湖相优质烃源岩;琼东南盆地“低频—连续—强振幅”地震相特征与珠江口盆地钻井证实的半深湖相优质烃源岩地震反射特征差异较大;琼东南盆地在区域位置、构造演化与沉积充填模式方面与珠江口和北部湾盆地也存在明显差异,使得始新统湖相地层的分布规模和优质烃源岩的发育条件等方面,均弱于珠江口和北部湾盆地。因此,建议在与周缘盆地始新统地层的对比研究过程中应适度审慎,尤其是以陵水凹陷为代表的中央坳陷带始新统湖相烃源岩分布规模不宜过于乐观。同时,指出受地貌格局影响,不同凹陷海侵进程并不同步,琼东南盆地除始新统...     

Spatial and temporal variations of spatial population accessibility to public hospitals: a case study of rural–urban comparison

Quantification and assessment of nationwide population access to health-care services is a critical undertaking for improving population health and optimizing the performance of national health systems. Rural–urban unbalance of population access to health-care services is widely involved in most of the nations. This unbalance is also potentially affected by varied weather and road conditions. This study investigates the rural and urban performances of public health system by quantifying the spatiotemporal variations of accessibility and assessing the impacts of potential factors. Australian health-care system is used as a case study for the rural–urban comparison of population accessibility. A nationwide travel time-based modified kernel density two-step floating catchment area (MKD2SFCA) model is utilized to compute accessibility of travel time within 30, 60, 120, and 240 min to all public hospitals, hospitals that provide emergency care, and hospitals that provide surgery service, respectively. Results show that accessibility is varied both temporally and spatially, and the rural–urban unbalance is distinct for different types of hospitals. In Australia, from the perspective of spatial distributions of health-care resources, spatial accessibility to all public hospitals in remote and very remote areas is not lower (and may even higher) than that in major cities, but the accessibility to hospitals that provide emergency and surgery services is much higher in major cities than other areas. From the angle of temporal variation of accessibility to public hospitals, reduction of traffic speed is 1.00–3.57% due to precipitation and heavy rain, but it leads to 18–23% and 31–50% of reduction of accessibility in hot-spot and cold-spot regions, respectively, and the impact is severe in New South Wales, Queensland, and Northern Territory during wet seasons. Spatiotemporal analysis for the variations of accessibility can provide quantitative and accurate evidence for geographically local and dynamic strategies of allocation decision-making of medical resources and optimizing health-care systems both locally and nationally.