Optimisation of wave energy extraction with the Archimedes Wave Swing

This paper addresses the Archimedes Wave Swing (an offshore wave energy converter, which produces electricity from sea waves). It compares the performances of latching control (a discrete, highly non-linear, intrinsically sub-optimum control strategy), of reactive control, of phase and amplitude control (two optimum control strategies that involve non-causal transfer functions, which have to be implemented with approximations, thus rending the control sub-optimum), and of feedback linearisation control (a non-linear control strategy). From extensive simulations it is concluded that the latter performs clearly better irrespective of the sea state, and leads to a significant increase of absorbed wave power.     

Determination of source parameters of small earthquakes in the east part of Guandong and south part of Fujian Province

Determination of source parameters of small earthquakes from amplitude ratios of and is studied in this paper when the distribution of the regional seismic network is skew to the earthquakes. The distribution of stations of the seismic network was to one side of the 17 earthquakes chosen from among 39 earthquakes in the east part of Guangdong and south part of Fujiang Province. The distribution of stations was classified into three types according to their relative positions with respect to the chosen earthquakes and the experiments of artificial data were done. Excellent results were also presented in various unfavourable conditions by using the method. As to the 39 small earthquakes recorded by the network in east Guangdong and south Fujian Province from 1982 to 1986, the results can be summarized as follows: Most of the fault planes of the earthquakes apear to be steep. Most of the principal compression stressesP and tensile stressesT are nearly horizontal, concentrating in the WNW-ESE direction. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinia,13, 420–429, 1991.     

Data assimilation methods for estimating a heterogeneous conductivity field by assimilating transient solute transport data via ensemble Kalman filter

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is developed to identify a hydraulic conductivity distribution in a heterogeneous medium by assimilating solute concentration measurements of solute transport in the field with a steady‐state flow. A synthetic case with the mixed Neumann/Dirichlet boundary conditions is designed to investigate the capacity of the data assimilation methods to identify a conductivity distribution. The developed method is demonstrated in 2‐D transient solute transport with two different initial instant solute injection areas. The influences of the observation error and model error on the updated results are considered in this study. The study results indicate that the EnKF method will significantly improve the estimation of the hydraulic conductivity field by assimilating solute concentration measurements. The larger area of the initial distribution and the more observed data obtained, the better the calculation results. When the standard deviation of the observation error varies from 1% to 30% of the solute concentration measurements, the simulated results by the data assimilation method do not change much, which indicates that assimilation results are not very sensitive to the standard deviation of the observation error in this study. When the inflation factor is more than 1.0 to enlarge the model error by increasing the forecast error covariance matrix, the updated results of the hydraulic conductivity by the data assimilation method are not good at all. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2006年9月秭归泄滩极微震群初步研究

2006年 9月17～22日在秭归泄滩镇西侧发生了一次极微震群活动,其中最大地震为9月20日21时10分 ML1.8级.分析结果表明:本次震群的震中主要集中于泄滩镇老石门村至老泄滩一线,震源深度为海平面以上0.5 km范围内,为正倾滑机制解;该震群频谱最佳频率主要集中在2 Hz左右,初步推断该震群为地表层重力作用下矿塌型地震并伴有几次浅层微滑坡.     

灰色模型用于卫星钟差长期预报的性能研究

利用灰色模型对GPSRb钟和Cs钟进行了长期预报,并与常用的二阶多项式模型预报进行比较,结果表明:灰色模型对GPSCs钟进行长期210d(天)预报时精度高达ns量级,对GPSRb钟的预报精度在10ns量级,明显高于二阶多项式模型的预报精度,满足实际应用中的精度要求。     

关于琼东南盆地始新统地层研究的思考

始新统湖相地层是琼东南盆地原油勘探领域的主力烃源岩,历年来各轮资源评价结果均显示具有较好的石油勘探前景,但自1987年Ying9井首次钻遇油层至今,琼东南盆地原油勘探领域一直未取得重大突破。近年来寄予厚望的S3X井钻探失利具有一定典型性,笔者等以S3X井钻后分析为契机,通过与珠江口和北部湾盆地始新统地层对比研究,提出了不同于以往的看法。分析显示琼东南盆地已发现原油中,源于低等水生生物的C304 甲基甾烷含量,以及反映氧化还原条件的姥植比（Pr/Ph）参数,均弱于珠江口和北部湾盆地半深湖相优质烃源岩;琼东南盆地“低频—连续—强振幅”地震相特征与珠江口盆地钻井证实的半深湖相优质烃源岩地震反射特征差异较大;琼东南盆地在区域位置、构造演化与沉积充填模式方面与珠江口和北部湾盆地也存在明显差异,使得始新统湖相地层的分布规模和优质烃源岩的发育条件等方面,均弱于珠江口和北部湾盆地。因此,建议在与周缘盆地始新统地层的对比研究过程中应适度审慎,尤其是以陵水凹陷为代表的中央坳陷带始新统湖相烃源岩分布规模不宜过于乐观。同时,指出受地貌格局影响,不同凹陷海侵进程并不同步,琼东南盆地除始新统发育湖相地层外,渐新统崖城组早期部分凹陷也具有发育湖相地层和油型烃源岩的条件,这一新观点在一定程度可扩展琼东南盆地原油勘探研究的局面和思路。     

溱潼西斜坡地震资料“双高”处理关键技术

溱潼凹陷西斜坡是岩性、构造-岩性等隐蔽油藏勘探的有利区,具有砂体薄、横向变化快、圈闭面积小、断裂关系复杂等特点。常规地震处理剖面保幅性差、频率低,导致小断层识别困难、地层尖灭线刻画精度低、岩性圈闭不落实。开展以提高地震资料保幅性、提高分辨率为核心的“双高”处理方法研究,构建以保幅去噪、一致性处理、高精度Radon变换法压制多次波、反Q滤波提高分辨率、五维数据规则化及精细速度建模等为主的技术体系,并确定对应的质量控制方法。“双高”处理的地震资料保幅性好、信噪比高,波组产状与地质认识更吻合,目的层主频提高10 Hz,有效频宽拓宽20 Hz,小断层及地层尖灭点较清晰。新处理资料的解释发现了一批有利油气目标。     

2017年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋预报精度评定

以中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的最佳路径数据集为依据,对2017年西北太平洋和南海海域热带气旋定位精度及路径、强度和登陆点预报精度进行了评定。评定结果表明：2017年定位总平均误差为26.7 km,比2016年略偏大。无论是主观预报还是客观预报方法,近两年在72 h以内的路径预报整体水平并没有超越2015年。2017年,中央气象台除了对台风纳沙在台湾宜兰的24 h登陆点预报较差外,其余台风的24 h登陆点预报误差基本在65 km以下。采用不同机构的最佳路径或实时定位定强数据作为参考会对精度评定的结果产生较大影响。     

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北印度洋风浪流数值预报系统:Ⅱ-检验分析

基于系统构建工作[1],开展北印度洋风浪流数值预报系统后报和准业务化预报,并利用2013年9月—2014年3月共6个月的资料对预报结果进行了统计检验。结果显示北印度洋风浪流数值预报业务运行稳定可靠,大气模式(WRF)72 h预报的500 hPa位势高度距平相关系数达到89%,海浪模式(SWAN)的72 h有效波高预报的相对误差低于20%,海流模式(ROMS)的72 h海表温度预报的均方根误差在0.5℃左右;同时对2013年10月期间孟加拉湾的超级气旋风暴"PHAILIN"的预报结果进行了分析。该风、浪、流预报系统能够较好地预报"PHAILIN"的移动路径、最低气压及相应的海浪和海流过程。该系统的试运行和检验分析结果,对建立新一代海洋环境数值预报系统具有一定借鉴意义。