Flood forecasting and infiltration modeling/Prévision de crue et modélisation de l’infiltration

Abstract

Abstract The role of accuracy in the representation of infiltration on the effectiveness of real-time flood forecasting models was investigated. A simple semi-distributed model of conceptual type with adaptive estimate of hydraulic characteristics included in the infiltration component was selected. Infiltration was described by a very accurate approach recently formulated for complex rainfall patterns, or alternatively through a simpler formulation known as an extension of the classical time compression approximation. The results indicated that, for situations involving a significant rainfall variability in space, the inaccuracy in the representation of infiltration cannot be corrected by the adaptive component of the rainfall–runoff model. A preliminary analysis of the role of an approximation of saturated hydraulic conductivity to be used in each homogeneous area of the semi-distributed model used both in non-adaptive version and in real-time is also presented.     

Identification of runoff generation processes using combined hydrometric,tracer and geophysical methods in a headwater catchment in South Africa / Identification des processus de génération de l'écoulement par combinaison de méthodes hydrométriques,de traçage et géophysiques dans un bassin versant sud-africain

Résumé

Des mesures hydrométriques classiques et l'imagerie 2-D de résistivité électrique (IRE) détaillée ont été combinées avec le prélèvement de traceurs pour identifier les processus hydrologiques en jeu dans un bassin versant semi-aride de la province Cap-Oriental, en Afrique du Sud. L'étude des événements de précipitation et d'écoulement a souligné la forte relation qui existe entre les précipitations et les caractéristiques de la génération des écoulements. L'observation du potentiel hydrique du sol ainsi que du niveau d'eau souterraine a mis en évidence le développement d'une nappe perchée dans le sol. Ces résultats sont confirmés par des séparations d'hydrogrammes à base de traceurs et illustrent le rôle important des écoulements souterrains superficiels. L'étude par IRE a permis de mieux connaître la structure du sous-sol. Finalement, l'étude par IRE, combinée avec des mesures obtenues par réflectométrie en domaine temporel (TDR), a permis d'extrapoler à des mesures sélectives de teneur en eau. Pour récapituler, l'utilisation et la combinaison de différentes méthodes de terrain ont mené au développement d'un modèle conceptuel du fonctionnement hydrologique de ce bassin versant. Le rôle dominant des mécanismes de subsurface a été démontré.     

The last deglaciation in the Picos de Europa National Park (Cantabrian Mountains,northern Spain)

A sedimentological and geochemical study of the Lago Enol sequence (Cantabrian Mountains, northern Spain), together with detailed geomorphological mapping, provides a first record of glacier evolution and climate change over the last 40 ka in the Picos de Europa National Park. The Enol glacier retreated from its maximum extent prior to 40 ka BP as demonstrated by the onset of proglacial lacustrine sedimentation in two glaciated depressions: the Comella hollow to the north (before 40 ka BP) and the Lago Enol (before 38 ka BP). These results support previous evidence that the maximum extent of southern European glaciers occurred earlier than in northern Europe. Alternation of homogeneous and laminated proglacial sediments during the glacier retreat illustrate a dynamic glacial evolution during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (40–26 ka BP). A slight warming is detected at 26 ka ago with the change from proglacial sediments (in a lake located in contact to the glacier) to glaciolacustrine sedimentation (in a non‐contact or distal lake). Finally, the onset of organic‐rich sediments took place at 18 ka ago. This last transition occurred in two phases, similarly to the North Atlantic Last Termination, suggesting a link between North Atlantic Deep Water formation oscillations and palaeohydrological variability in the Cantabrian Mountains. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

(Re) deposition of loess in southern Limbourg,the Netherlands 3. Field evidence for conditions of deposition of the middle and upper silt loam complexes,and landscape evolution at Nagelbeek

This paper is about conditions and processes during the accumulation of the Upper Pleniglacial Middle and Upper Silt Loam complexes at Nagelbeek, Limbourg, a Weichselian stratigraphical type locality. The complexes correlate with Hesbayan and Brabantian loesses in Belgium, formed between 28,000 and 12,400 yrs BP. They are characterized by sediment features (cracks, mass deformations, and cut-and-fill features) that are ascribed to a cryogenic regimen. The main Middle Silt Loam subunit contains contraction cracks deformed and further modified by masswasting. Intra-Upper-Pleniglacial pedogenic intervals are inferred from three greyish bands, from a truncated weathered zone surmounting the Middle Silt Loam, and from an aeolian-cumulic palaeosol at the base of the Upper Silt Loam. Latter two zones and an intervening erosional unconformity were cryogenically reworked, less than 22,000 yrs BP, to form a complex stratigraphical marker-zone: the ‘Horizon à Langues de Nagelbeek’. Morphological variants of the marker-zone are described. The geomorphic evolution of the Nagelbeek upland, from Saalian to Holocene times, is summarized in unconformity maps and a time diagram.     

Statistics on the vertical structure of rainshowers

A large sample of summertime data from the McGill Radar Weather Observatory was analyzed to determine the variation with altitude of the horizontal extent of individual rainshowers. For echoes defined by a reflectivity factor of 39 dBz (equivalent to a rainfall rate of about 10 mm/h) it was found that the mean area of the total population of echoes decreases linearly with altitude from approximately 20 km² at 2 km to 11 km² at 8 km. Subsets of the total population were investigated, consisting of only the echoes penetrating the altitudes of 6, 7, and 8 km. On the average these relatively tall echoes are much greater in horizontal extent than the total population. Whereas the sizes of the total population of echoes at any altitude are distributed approximately exponentially in terms of the square root of area, the sizes of the “survivors” that extend to high altitudes may be described by the gamma distribution with a mean value decreasing approximately linearly with height above 3 km and a dispersion of 0.55. Some characteristics are also reported for echoes defined by reflectivities of 31 dBz and 47 dBz. Estimates are given of the fraction of the total area in a horizontal plane that contains echoes in each of these categories.     

Lithosphere formation in the central Slave Craton (Canada): plume subcretion or lithosphere accretion?

Major-element compositions of minerals in peridotite xenoliths from the Lac de Gras kimberlites provide constraints on the mode of lithosphere formation beneath the central Slave Craton, Canada. Magnesia contents of reconstructed whole rocks correlate positively with NiO and negatively with CaO contents, consistent with variable partial melt extraction. Alumina and Cr₂O₃ contents are broadly positively correlated, suggestive of melt depletion in the absence of a Cr–Al phase. Garnet modes are high at a given Al₂O₃ content (a proxy for melt depletion), falling about a 7 GPa melt depletion model. These observations, combined with high olivine Mg# and major-element relationships of FeO-poor peridotites (<7.5 wt%) indicative of melt loss at pressures >3 GPa (residual FeO content being a sensitive indicator of melt extraction pressure), and similar high pressures of last equilibration (∼4.2 to 5.8 GPa), provide multiple lines of evidence that the mantle beneath the central Slave Craton has originated as a residue from high-pressure melting, possibly during plume subcretion. Apparent low melt depletion pressures for high-FeO peridotites (>7.5 wt%) could suggest formation in an oceanic setting, followed by subduction to their depth of entrainment. However, these rocks, which are characterised by low SiO₂ contents (<43 wt%), are more likely to be the result of post-melting FeO-addition, leading to spuriously low estimates of melt extraction pressures. They may have reacted with a silica-undersaturated melt that dissolved orthopyroxene, or experienced olivine injection by crystallising melts. A secular FeO-enrichment of parts of the deep mantle lithosphere is supported by lower average Mg# in xenolithic olivine (91.7) compared to olivine inclusions in diamond (92.6).     

The November 2002 eruption at Piton de la Fournaise volcano,La Réunion Island: ground deformation,seismicity, and pit crater collapse

An eruption on the eastern flank of Piton de la Fournaise volcano started on 16 November, 2002 after 10 months of quiescence. After a relatively constant level of activity during the first 13 days of the eruption, lava discharge, volcanic tremor and seismicity increased from 29 November to 3 December. Lava effusion suddenly ceased on 3 December while shallow earthquakes beneath the Dolomieu summit crater were still recorded at a rate of about one per minute. This unusual activity continued and increased in intensity over the next three weeks, ending with the formation of a pit crater within Dolomieu. Based on ground deformation, measured by rapid-static and continuous GPS and an extensometer, seismic data, and lava effusion patterns, the eruptive period is divided into five stages: 1) slow summit inflation and sporadic seismicity; 2) rapid summit inflation and a short seismic crisis; 3) rapid flank inflation, onset of summit deflation, sporadic seismicity, accompanied by stable effusion; 4) flank inflation, coupled with summit deflation, intense seismicity, and increased lava effusion; and finally 5) little deflation, intense shallow seismicity, and the end of lava effusion. We propose a model in which the pre-intrusive inflation of Stage 1 in the months preceding the eruption was caused by a magma body located near sea level. The magma reservoir was the source of an intrusion rising under the summit during Stage 2. In Stage 3, the magma ponded at a shallow level in the edifice while the lateral injection of a radial dike reached the surface on the eastern flank of the basaltic volcano, causing lava effusion. Pressure decrease in the magmatic plumbing system followed, resulting in upward migration of a collapse front, forming a subterranean column of debris by faulting and stoping. This caused intense shallow seismicity, increase in discharge of lava and volcanic tremor at the lateral vent in Stage 4 and, eventually the formation of a pit crater in Stage 5.     

GPS高程测量精度试验与分析

详细论述了GPS高程测量的主要误差来源，利用实测数据对GPS高程测量成果的精度及稳定性进行分析比较，从观测时间等方面提出了保证精度的要求。     

对青藏高原末次冰盛期降温值、平衡线下降值与模拟结果的讨论

1999年 5期《第四纪研究》刊登的“青藏高原冰期环境与冰期全球降温”论文 ,内容丰富 ,提出了许多重大问题和新鲜讯息 ,发人深思。本文就部分内容进行讨论 ,认为根据新近若干冰期降温值较大的信息 ,就得出冰期降温幅度为过去认识的两倍的普遍性推断 ,还为时过早。青藏高原新近研究表明夏季降温值是较小的 ;冰川平衡线高度取决于以夏季温度为标志所提供的消融热量与全年降雪积累量的平衡 ,单纯就降温值 ,不能决定平衡线下降值 ;全球各地气候、地形差别很大 ,冰期变化也很悬殊 ,不存在全球均一的 1 0 0 0m左右平衡线下降值 ,干旱区的下降值多低于此数。青藏高原末次冰盛期 (LGM)冰川堆积 (终碛、侧碛 )和侵蚀形态(冰斗、槽谷 )一般保存良好、形态鲜明 ,较易识别 ,近年已获取测年资料 ,证明过去地貌法判别的LGM冰川规模 ,并以此决定的LGM平衡线位置基本恰当 ,当然也有误判者。从 2 0世纪 2 0年代起 ,研究者逐渐认识高原内部主要是中西部LGM平衡线下降值较小 ,经过多次改进的LGM平衡线高度分布图显示约有 1 /3左右地区 ,平衡线下降值不足 30 0m ,实为世所罕见。其原因可能主要在高原西北部是全球惟一高海拔寒旱核心区域 ,为极大陆型或极地型冰川分布区 ,以现代西昆仑山崇测冰川、古里雅冰帽为例 ,平衡线高度