Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 1. Débit maximum annuel

Abstract

Results of a study on change detection in hydrological time series of annual maximum river flow are presented. Out of more than a thousand long time series made available by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany, a worldwide data set consisting of 195 long series of daily mean flow records was selected, based on such criteria as length of series, currency, lack of gaps and missing values, adequate geographical distribution, and priority to smaller catchments. The analysis of annual maximum flows does not support the hypothesis of ubiquitous growth of high flows. Although 27 cases of strong, statistically significant increase were identified by the Mann-Kendall test, there are 31 decreases as well, and most (137) time series do not show any significant changes (at the 10% level). Caution is advised in interpreting these results as flooding is a complex phenomenon, caused by a number of factors that can be associated with local, regional, and hemispheric climatic processes. Moreover, river flow has strong natural variability and exhibits long-term persistence which can confound the results of trend and significance tests.     

北京石花洞结构特征及发育演化过程研究

北京石花洞是中国北方已探明洞穴中次生碳酸盐沉积规模最大、种类最丰富的洞穴;石花洞的景观美学价值和科学价值,在我国北方岩溶洞穴中占有重要地位。2013年7月,为了获取石花洞发育规模、空间结构等基本数据,采用国际通用洞穴测量方法,运用激光测距仪、罗盘和倾角仪,辅以Onstation洞穴绘图软件和ArcMap10软件对石花洞洞穴开展了全面的调查和测绘。结果显示:(1) 石花洞洞穴系统整体呈北西西-南东东向展布,长度为5 639 m,洞底投影面积为37 096 m2,洞底高差为172 m,洞内最高点海拔约为265 m,最低点海拔约为93 m。洞穴系统的发育演化主要受地层产状与北东向和北西向两组断层控制;(2) 石花洞洞穴系统分为五层,自上而下,各层洞道平均海拔依次为249 m, 211 m, 154 m, 111 m和95 m;(3) 最底第五层季节性地下河洞道长1 638 m,自西北向东南方向贯穿整个洞穴系统,依干湿季水文条件的差别,地下水以季节性涨落为主要特征,有多段有水通道;地下河道下游末端为叉状河道,崩塌明显,洞壁上无明显流纹发育;(4) 综合石花洞地下河走向和流向、洞穴发育控制因素和区域地层产状特征、石花洞与周边洞穴的空间位置关系,推测孔水洞是石花洞洪水期的排泄口。      

Climate control on stacked paleosols in the Pleistocene of the Po Basin (northern Italy)

Paleosols are recurrent features in alluvial successions and provide information about past sedimentary dynamics and climate change. Through sedimentological analysis on six sediment cores, the mud-dominated succession beneath the medieval ‘Two Towers’ of Bologna was investigated down to 100 m depth. A succession of weakly developed paleosols (Inceptisols) was identified. Four paleosols (P1, P2, P3 and PH) were radiocarbon-dated to 40–10 cal ka bp . Organic matter and CaCO₃ determinations indicate low groundwater levels during soil development, which spanned periods < 5 ka. The development and burial of soils, which occurred synchronously in the Bologna region and in other sectors of the Po Plain, are interpreted to reflect climatic and eustatic variations. Climatic oscillations, at the scale of the Bond cycles, controlled soil development and burial during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (P1 and P2). Rapid sea-level oscillations probably induced soil development at the MIS 3/2 transition (P3) and favored burial of PH after 10 ka bp . Weakly developed paleosols in alluvial successions can provide clues to millennial-scale climatic and environmental variations. In particular, the paleosol-bearing succession of the Po Plain represents an unprecedent record of environmental changes across the Late Pleistocene (MIS 3 and 2) in the Mediterranean region.     

Time–frequency analysis to profile hydrological regimes: application to Haiti

Abstract

Comprehensive characterization of its flow rates is prerequisite to a proper understanding and water management of a given hydrological region. Several studies question the soundness of stationarity in time series and suggest the need for a quantification of the events and non-stationary features in flow rate time series. In this study, we combine statistical and time–frequency (TF) analyses to characterize and classify the flow rates of an understudied region, namely Haiti. Wavelet transforms and cyclostationarity analyses were combined with principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to identify three groups of hydrological regimes in the country, suggesting similar management: (1) relatively stable flow rates with TF behaviour; (2) periodic and strongly seasonal flow rates; and (3) unstable flow rates. We argue that the TF methodology can yield additional information in regard to flow events and multiscale behaviour, even for short records. Flow rate characterization would benefit from the exhaustive approach described here.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR E. Toth     

柴达木盆地那棱格勒河及其尾闾盐湖锂成矿物源：来自水化学和锶、硫同位素证据

柴达木盆地那棱格勒河尾闾盐湖(一里坪干盐滩、东台吉乃尔盐湖、西台吉乃尔盐湖和察尔汗盐湖别勒滩区段)赋存了我国目前最大的卤水锂矿床。那棱格勒河及其尾闾盐湖锂的物源仍存在一定争议,主要有围岩风化、古湖残留、含盐系地层淋滤、油田水、深部水等,目前缺乏有力的地球化学证据。本文系统采集了那棱格勒河流域及其尾闾盐湖不同水体样品16件,分析了其主、微量元素含量及锶、硫同位素组成。结合前人的研究成果,对区域水体中锂的来源进行了探讨,得出结论如下:那棱格勒河水锂含量(0.45～0.79 mg/L)比楚拉克阿拉干河支流(0.00～0.05 mg/L)高出一个数量级,其高锂含量主要受洪水河支流的补给;洪水河高锂含量与其上游热泉水的补给有关,该热泉水锂、锶含量高、⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr比值偏高,δ³⁴S值偏低,与青藏高原典型热泉水地球化学特征(锂含量0.4～34.8 mg/L,锶含量0.07～4.24 mg/L,⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr比值0.71224～0.71259,δ³⁴S值-10....     

震后都汶公路沿线泥石流沟堵江危险性评估

震后泥石流松散物质显著增多,临界雨量降低,导致泥石流暴发频率增加、规模增大,从而使震后灾区泥石流堵江事件频繁发生,给灾区带来严重的二次灾害。为了评价震后泥石流堵江概率大小,本文在野外考察基础上,获得研究区泥石流沟基础数据,并根据水文模型计算不同频率下的泥石流规模; 在此基础上利用泥石流堵江公式,获取研究区域泥石流堵江危险程度(数值),并结合研究区域已发生的泥石流堵江事件,界定了泥石流堵江公式的临界值,使之能够更加准确用来判定泥石流堵江概率,并对 5·12 地震极震区都汶公路沿线的7条泥石流在不同频率下的泥石流堵江概率进行评价。评价结果显示:牛眠沟和关山沟在暴发50a及其以上泥石流时,会发生堵江; 烧房沟、红椿沟和磨子沟在暴发10a及其以上泥石流时,会发生堵江事件; 洱沟和太平沟在暴发5a及其以上泥石流时便可能发生堵江; 上述泥石流沟一旦发生堵江,便会给映秀镇和都汶公路带来严重灾难。通过本文获取的堵江临界值可以作为判定泥石流堵江的参考标准,为泥石流防治、预报提供参考,同时可以为灾后重建和预防二次灾害提供科学借鉴。     

EVOLUTIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF HYPER－CONCENTRATED FLOW IN BRAIDED CHANNEL OF THE YELLOW RIVER

ＥＶＯＬＵＴＩＯＮＡＬＣＨＡＲＡＣＴＥＲＩＳＴＩＣＳＯＦＨＹＰＥＲ－ＣＯＮＣＥＮＴＲＡＴＥＤＦＬＯＷＩＮＢＲＡＩＤＥＤＣＨＡＮＮＥＬＯＦＴＨＥＹＥＬＬＯＷＲＩＶＥＲ￥ＱＩＰｕ；ＬＩＷｅｎｘｕｅ（Ｓｅｎｉｏｒｅｎｇｉｎｅｅｒ，ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＨｙ...     

Data collection methodology for dynamic temperature model testing and corroboration

This article describes a data collection approach for determining the significance of individual heat fluxes within streams with an emphasis on testing (i.e. identification of possible missing heat fluxes), development, calibration and corroboration of a dynamic temperature model. The basis for developing this approach was a preliminary temperature modelling effort on the Virgin River in southwestern Utah during a low‐flow period that suggested important components of the energy balance might be missing in the original standard surface‐flux temperature model. Possible missing heat fluxes were identified as bed conduction, hyporheic exchange, dead zone warming and exchange and poor representation of the amount of solar radiation entering the water column. To identify and estimate the relative importance of the missing components, a comprehensive data collection effort was developed and implemented. In particular, a method for measuring shortwave radiation behaviour in the water column and an in situ method for separating out bed conduction and hyporheic influences were established. The resulting data and subsequent modelling effort indicate that hyporheic and dead zone heat fluxes are important, whereas solar radiation reflection at the water surface was found to be insignificant. Although bed conduction can be significant in certain rivers, it was found to have little effect on the overall heat budget for this section of the Virgin River. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of climatic change on river runoff in northern Xinjiang of China over last fifty years

The characteristics of climatic change and river runoff, as well as the response of river runoff to climatic change in the northern Xinjiang are analyzed on the basis of the hydrological and meteorological data over the last 50 years by the methods of Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and the nonlinear regression model. The results show that: 1) The temperature and the precipitation increased significantly in the whole northern Xinjiang, but the precipitation displayed no obvious change, or even a decreasing trend in the northern mountainous area of the northern Xinjiang. 2) River runoff varied in different regions in the northern Xinjiang. It significantly increased in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang (p=0.05), while slightly increased in the west of the northern Xinjiang. 3) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects river runoff by influencing temperature and precipita-tion. The NAO and precipitation had apparent significant correlations with the river runoff, but the temperature did not in the northern Xinjiang. Since the mid-1990s river runoff increase was mainly caused by the increasing temperature in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang. Increased precipitation resulted in increased river runoff in the west of the northern Xinjiang.     

The linkage between velocity patterns and sediment entrainment in a forced‐pool and riffle unit

A field‐based project was initiated in order to characterize velocities and sediment entrainment in a forced‐pool and riffle sequence. Three‐dimensional velocities and turbulence intensities were measured with an acoustic Doppler velocimeter at 222 different points at three similar flows that averaged approximately 4·35 m³ s⁻¹ within a large pool–riffle unit on North Saint Vrain Creek, Colorado. Sediment‐sorting patterns were observed with the introduction of 500 tracer particles painted according to initial seeding location. Tracer particles moved sporadically during a 113 day period in response to the annual snowmelt peak flow, which reached a maximum level of 14·8 m³ s⁻¹. Velocity data indicate high instantaneous velocities and turbulence levels in the centre of pools. Patterns of sediment deposition support the notion that stream competence is higher in the pool than the downstream riffle. Flow convergence around a large channel constriction appears to play a major role in multiple processes that include helical flow development and sediment routing, and backwater development with low velocities and turbulence levels above the constriction that may locally limit sediment supply. Jet flow, flow separation, vortex scour and turbulence generation enhance scour in the centre of pools. Ultimately, multiple processes appear to play some role in maintenance of this forced pool and the associated riffle. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.