西安东部夜间异常增温原因及其数值模式预报订正

利用陕西省气象监测站观测资料、NCEP/NCAR和ERA5全球再分析资料,对2019年12月10日凌晨西安东部一次夜间温度异常跃增过程进行深入分析.结果表明:①此次夜间增温过程发展迅速、局地性强、预报难度大.②500 hPa内蒙东部冷槽底后部干燥的西北气流和850 hPa干暖气团有利于产生大气下沉绝热增温.西安地区近地...     

基于注意力机制与自适应时序分解的气温预报模型

针对传统方法在捕捉气象序列长期依赖关系及泛化性能上的不足,提出了一种基于稀疏注意力与自适应时序分解的气温预报模型（ATFSAS）。该模型整体采用编码器 解码器架构,结合稀疏注意力机制以有效捕捉气象观测数据间的长期依赖性。为减少编码过程中造成的冗余,提出了一种信息蒸馏方法。通过结合多层解码器与自适应时序分解单元,逐步细化预报信号中的周期性和趋势性分量,实现了较为精准的气温预报。基于德国耶拿气象数据集,进行24 h精细化气温预报,其平均绝对误差为1.7108℃。基于中国地面气候资料日值数据集,进行中短期日平均气温预报和多地区单日平均气温预报,相比传统模型LSTM,ATFSAS模型预报结果的平均绝对误差分别提升了35.56%和23.66%。     

中南地区航空器空中颠簸指数适用分析

利用ERA Interim再分析资料和2015—2019年中南地区航空器空中报告,对比分析7个指数在中南地区空中颠簸的适用效果,结果表明：①不同指数有无颠簸之间的值域重合率,Brown指数最低,其次是Ellrod1和Ellrod2,能够从指数值判断颠簸的强弱及存在与否,空报率较低;MOS CAT和L P指数值域重合率过高,容易造成较高的空报。②Ellrod1、Ellrod2和Brown计算的颠簸区与空中报告的位置对应最好,Dutton和HTG表现不稳定,MOS CAT和L P指数计算范围偏大,适用性较差。不同指数计算侧重点不同,当热力因素占主导时,HTG指数计算效果较好。     

Better air for better health: Forging synergies in policies for energy access,climate change and air pollution

Air pollution and its related health impacts are a global concern. This paper addresses how current policies on air pollution, climate change and access to clean cooking fuels can effectively reduce both outdoor and household air pollution and improve human health. A state of the art modeling framework is used that combines an integrated assessment model and an atmospheric model to estimate the spatial extent and distribution of outdoor air pollution exposures. Estimates of household energy access and use are modeled by accounting for heterogeneous household energy choices and affordability constraints for rural and urban populations spanning the entire income distribution. Results are presented for 2030 for a set of policy scenarios on air pollution, climate change and energy access and include spatially explicit emissions of air pollutants; ambient concentrations of PM2.5; and health impacts in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) from both ambient and household air pollution. The results stress the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation in addressing the impacts of outdoor air pollution. A combination of stringent policies on outdoor air pollution, climate change and access to clean cooking fuels is found to be effective in achieving reductions in average ambient PM2.5 exposures to below World Health Organization recommended levels for a majority of the world's population and results in a significant decline in the global burden of disease from both outdoor and household air pollution.     

Application of the threshold method to air quality data

A new threshold method is explained in a manner suitable for workers in the general scientific area. Its application to the prediction of extreme pollutant concentrations is described and the results are compared with those of a conventional procedure, using a set of published data. A discussion concerning the difficulties of the presently used statistical technique is also included.     

Temperature and heat flux spectra in the turbulent buoyancy subrange

The physical nature of motions with scales intermediate between approximately isotropic turbulence and quasi-linear internal gravity waves is not understood at the present time. Such motions play an important role in the energetics of small scales processes, both in the ocean and in the atmosphere, and in vertical transport of heat and constituents. This scale range is currently interpreted either as a saturated gravity waves field or as a buoyancy range of turbulence.We first discuss some distinctive predictions of the classical (Lumley, Phillips) buoyancy range theory, recently improved (Weinstock, Dalaudier and Sidi) to describe potential energy associated with temperature fluctuations. This theory predicts the existence of a spectral gap in the temperature spectra and of an upward mass flux (downward buoyancy and heat fluxes), strongly increasing towards large scales. These predictions are contrasted with an alternate theory, assuming energetically insignificant buoyancy flux, proposed by Holloway.Then we present experimental evidences of such characteristic features obtained in the lower stratosphere with an instrumented balloon. Spectra of temperature, vertical velocity, and cospectra of both, obtained in homogeneous, weakly turbulent regions, are compared with theoretical predictions. These results are strongly consistent with the improved classical buoyancy range theory and support the existence of a significant downward heat flux in the buoyancy range.The theoretical implications of the understanding of this scale range are discussed. Many experimental evidences consistently show the need for an anisotropic theory of the buoyancy range of turbulence.     

The influence of medium-range transport on O3 levels at a rural site in Israel

Simultaneous ozone measurements were made at a rural site, 25 km SSW of the city of Jerusalem, and in the center of the city during a period of 28 months. The ozone data were supplemented by SO₂, NO/NO _x ,and meteorological measurements at both sites. Elevated ozone concentrations were recorded at the rural site, mostly during the spring months (May and June) during which the monthly averages and the monthly averages of the daily 30 min maximum levels equalled those measured in the city. During the summer months, both average and peak levels were lower at the rural site by 20 and 35 ppb. The increased ozone levels at the rural site were accompanied by a parallel increase of SO₂ and NO _x ,suggesting hat the excess ozone at the rural site is a result of a transformation during transport of air pollutants from coastal sources.     

Air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean during several contrasting monsoon seasons

Monthly mean anomaly fields of various parameters like sea surface temperature, air temperature, wind stress, effective radiation at the surface, heat gain over the ocean and the total heat loss between a good and bad monsoon composite and the evaporation rates over the Arabian Sea and southern hemisphere have been studied over the tropical Indian Ocean. The mean rates of evaporation on a seasonal scale over the Arabian Sea during a good and bad monsoon composites were equal (about 2·48 × 10¹⁰ tons/day). The evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere were greater during all the months. The mean evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere on a seasonal scale for the good and bad monsoon composites were 4·4 × 10¹⁰ and 4·6 × 10¹⁰ tons/day respectively. The maximum evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere were observed in August. The anomalies of wind stress, effective radiation at the surface and the heat gain over the ocean also exhibit large variations in August, as compared to other monsoon months.     

根据波速-压力关系评价岩石岩性、物性的实验研究

本文在实验室里对老爷庙油田馆陶组（Ng）油气贮层砂岩岩芯的孔隙度φ、空气渗透率κ、骨架密度ρ_ma、岩石密度ρ_b和不同有效覆盖压力△P下岩芯的声波时差△t,做了精确测量,用回归分析拟合了φ-K、φ-ρ_b、φ-△t和V-△p（△t-△p）的经验关系式;保持原始孔隙结构不变的前提下,在岩芯饱和各种矿化度的孔隙流体时测定了声波时差△t与孔隙度φ的关系.研究结果表明,当贮层的φ-K、φ-ρ_b和φ-△t相关时,可用声波时差△t或波速V解释贮层的岩性,并可反演求出贮层的φ、K和ρ_b;地层有效覆盖压力对贮层的孔隙度和波速具有明显的影响.根据V-△p曲线的变化规律,可以评价贮层的岩性和埋藏地质体的油、气储集能力.这些结果对油田地震勘探和石油测井资料的解释具有重要的参考价值,并为预测储油有利地区和评价贮层提供了一种新的途径.     

STUDY OF THE POSSIBILITIES OF USING AN AIR MASS TRANSFORMATION MODEL IN TAIYUAN

An AMT-model,consisting of a trajectory model and a one-dimensional boundary layer model,is tested fortrajectories arriving in Taiyuan to study the possibility of using it in Taiyuan.The sensitivity of the model tothe different processes was studied.Some parameters of the model were modified for the purpose of forecast-ing in specific mountainous terrain and dry climate conditions.Results of examples which we have workedout for Taiyuan circumstances for the periods of July(summer)1985 and January(winter)1986,show that the12h runs of the AMT-model are able to reproduce(on historical data)the sounding of Taiyuan.The AMT-modelcontributes fruitfully to short-range weather forecasts(12—36h ahead)during periods of severe air pollution andwhen cold waves occur.