生活垃圾卫生填埋地质环境(LFGE)效应的系统分析方法研究——以上海浦东新区为例

在系统分析总结国内外本领域的研究发展现状的基础上,以上海浦东新区城市生活垃圾卫生填埋处理为研究背景,首次提出ＬＦＧＥ效应系统分析方法的完整理论和应用体系,体系主要包括：ＬＦＧＥ效应的主控因素特征分析;在垃圾淋滤试验、有关土的工程性能试验和反映运移转化特征的土柱试验基础上的作用机制研究;具单元、组合、整体模拟及压实效应模拟功能的模拟计算研究;在不确定性条件存在下,随机模拟研究和以贝叶斯决策分析理论为基础的ＬＦＧＥ效应决策分析技术经济转换研究     

Archimedean族Copulas函数在多变量干旱特征分析中的应用

以甘肃省陇西站月降水资料为例,应用9种3维Archimedean Copulas函数构造了干旱历时、干旱烈度和烈度峰值的联合概率分布,并进行了多变量的拟合优度评价,利用优选出的3维非对称型M12 Copula函数,计算联合分布的重现期以及不同组合下的条件概率与条件重现期。结果表明,M12Copula函数可以描述干旱历时、干旱烈度和烈度峰值间的联合分布。由于Copula函数能够用来构建不同边缘分布的联合分布,可以获得变量间不同组合下的重现期,因而能够更全面客观地反映干旱的特征,是描述干旱多变量分布的一种有效途径。     

青藏高原沱沱河地区冻土融化深度预测的概率分析

多年冻土空间异质性和边界条件及土性参数的可变性,往往会导致了冻土变化预测的不确定性,全球气候变暖更加剧这一过程.以青藏高原沱沱河地区试验段冻土融化深度预测为例,提出了在全球气候变暖条件下,基于参数服从某一概率分布的确定性模型的概率分析方法,基于此方法进行了融化深度的概率预测.由含水量、干容重的概率分布和20组ATI(空...     

特定场地下土工构筑物的几何可靠性分析

针对特定场地下土工构筑物的正常使用极限状态,采用近年发展的几何可靠性方法计算了多种构筑物的可靠度指标。考虑同一场地下的钻孔灌注桩、抗浮锚杆和CFG桩单桩加载变形测试曲线的离散性,各曲线回归参数呈现差异并可作为随机变量,进而探讨了各曲线回归参数间的相关性及联合分布特性。基于这些回归参数的联合发散概率密度等值线,即随机变量刚好达到极限承载能力状态,该几何可靠性算法可在随机变量的原始空间求得土工构筑物的可靠度指标。通过比对该几何可靠度指标与常规的一次可靠性算法成果,验证了该几何可靠性计算技术的可行性。计算表明,几何可靠性评价模型实施简便,易于被工程技术人员接受。     

地震工况下坝坡的抗滑安全系数取值标准研究

地震工况下的坝坡抗滑稳定性核算一直是大坝安全性评价的重要环节,采用科学合理的计算方法是评价坝坡安全性的基本保证。本文从概率极限分析的角度探讨了坝坡稳定性可靠度分析的概率意义,提出了将地震发生当做概率事件的坝坡可靠度计算方法。为验证将地震超越概率纳入坝坡稳定分析中的合理性,本文通过两个典型算例和小浪底坝坡典型剖面的抗滑稳定性分析研究了坝坡在地震工况下的单一安全系数与可靠指标的变化规律。研究结果表明在坝坡稳定分析中引入超越概率计算所得结果与工程实际相符,与以往的将地震发生当做确定性事件计算方法相比,该方法显著提高了坝坡的可靠指标值;比较可靠指标与单一安全系数的取值标准显示出在坝坡稳定分析中合理地引入地震概率分析方法能够保证坝坡在地震和正常工况下有相近的可靠指标值     

声波测井岩石波速统计分析

通常不同岩性的声波速度不同,同一岩性因裂隙发育和风化程度不同,声波速度也不相同。声波测井技术就是依据岩层的这一特性,划分不同岩层及岩层的风化破碎程度。这里对某铁路线的勘测的声波测井结果进行统计分析,给出了测区钻孔揭露的主要岩石较完整状态的声波波速统计值和异常发育概率统计。     

Development of Seismic Risk Scenarios Based on a Hybrid Method of Vulnerability Assessment

A hybrid methodology of vulnerability analysis is presented, involving elements from both empirical and theoretical methods. A model for correlating analytically calculated structural damage indices to loss (in monetary terms) is also proposed and calibrated against available statistical data. Probability damage matrices derived using this methodology are incorporated into a cost-benefit model tailored to the problem of estimating the feasibility of seismically rehabilitating the existing stock of reinforced concrete buildings in Thessaloniki, Greece. Losses calculated using the suggested procedure are found to be in good agreement with losses incurred during the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake. The results of the present study also indicate that benefit/cost ratios for reinforced concrete buildings are quite low. Hence, it appears that a pre-earthquake strengthening programme is not economically justifiable.     

Seismic recognition of local inhomogeneities

A simple method to contour local inhomogeneities using seismic data is proposed. It formalizes an approximate inversion method which is based on the interpretation of local inhomogeneities as making the differences between an actual seismic data set and a previous reference model. It uses the optimal statistical criteria of parameter estimation and recognition and the ray representation of the waves spreading. Any combination of direct, reflected and/or other types of waves may be used as the database. Inhomogeneities, having a size two times above the wavelength of the seismic waves, can be resolved. Laboratory experiments, using ultrasonic waves and analysis of data from field experiments, confirmed the theoretical results. The method can be used to search for ore bodies, kimberlite cubes, oiltraps, etc.     

Aftershock Statistics

The statistical properties of aftershock sequences are associated with three empirical scaling relations: (1) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling, (2) Båths law for the magnitude of the largest aftershock, and (3) the modified Omoris law for the temporal decay of aftershocks. In this paper these three laws are combined to give a relation for the aftershock decay rate that depends on only a few parameters. This result is used to study the temporal properties of aftershock sequences of several large California earthquakes. A review of different mechanisms and models of aftershocks are also given. The scale invariance of the process of stress transfer caused by a main shock and the heterogeneous medium in which aftershocks occur are responsible for the occurrence of scaling laws. We suggest that the observed partitioning of energy could play a crucial role in explaining the physical origin of Båths law. We also study the stress relaxation process in a simple model of damage mechanics and find that the rate of energy release in this model is identical to the rate of aftershock occurrence described by the modified Omoris law.     

Ecological Risk Assessment of Benzo[a]pyrene in Yellow River Delta

Ecological risk assessment is of great significance to promoting the rational management effectively for the oil‐polluted areas. A comprehensive evaluation method of ecological risk, including probabilistic risk assessment and regional ecological risk assessment, is developed through employing the contaminant benzo[a]pyrene as an indicator to assess ecological risk of five oil mining plots, respectively in Yellow River Delta. In this study, firstly we evaluate the ecological risk probability of five oil mining plots using overlapping area of probabilistic curves, and the results show that local ecological risk varies between the maximum 0.4 and the minimum 0.01. Then we overlay boundaries of five administrative divisions in Yellow River Delta and the spatial distribution patterns of ecosystems to generate new risk receptor plaques, and calculate the integrated value of 30 specifically classified plaques for comprehensive evaluation of ecological risk. The results, fluctuating within the range of 0.00005 and 0.25, indicate that local government should be vigilant to ecological risk of benzo[a]pyrene to some extent, although the current situation is not severe in whole.