Evaluation of a recently proposed record selection and scaling procedure for low‐rise to mid‐rise reinforced concrete buildings and its use for probabilistic risk assessment studies

This paper evaluates a recent record selection and scaling procedure of the authors that can determine the probabilistic structural response of buildings behaving either in the elastic or post‐elastic range. This feature marks a significant strength on the procedure as the probabilistic structural response distribution conveys important information on probability‐based damage assessment. The paper presents case studies that show the utilization of the proposed record selection and scaling procedure as a tool for the estimation of damage states and derivation of site‐specific and region‐specific fragility functions. The method can be used to describe exceedance probabilities of damage limits under a certain target hazard level with known annual exceedance rate (via probabilistic seismic hazard assessment). Thus, the resulting fragility models can relate the seismicity of the region (or a site) with the resulting building performance in a more accurate manner. Under this context, this simple and computationally efficient record selection and scaling procedure can be benefitted significantly by probability‐based risk assessment methods that have started to be considered as indispensable for developing robust earthquake loss models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

云南鲁甸M_S6.5地震余震重定位及其发震构造

整合了鲁甸震区周边的云南省地震台网、昭通市地震台网、巧家台阵,以及流动台站2个月的震相观测数据,对鲁甸地震序列进行了重新定位,得到了1 750个地震的震源参数。重定位结果显示,余震有2个优势分布方向,分别为SE向和SW向,具有不对称的共轭分布特征。2个余震条带的展布长度相当,约为16km,夹角约100°。余震分布显示鲁甸地震的发震断层为高倾角的走滑断层。主震位于2个余震条带中间略偏西南的位置,早期余震主要沿NW-SE向垂直于昭通-鲁甸断裂分布,主震西南侧的余震可能为后期触发的。根据余震分布与周边断层的关系、主震震源机制、烈度分布的长轴方位,以及滑坡分布等资料,认为鲁甸地震的发震断层为NW向的包谷垴-小河断裂。包谷垴-小河断裂南北两侧无论是在地震活动、深部速度结构,还是块体运动方向和速率方面都存在显著差异,断裂北侧的高速异常可能是阻止余震向北继续扩展的主要原因。     

芦山M7．0地震余震分布特征

使用双差定位方法,对2013年4月20日08时02分芦山 M 7．0地震后近10天的余震进行重新定位,获得精度较高的重定位结果;在此基础上,对余震空间分布特征进行研究,推测芦山主震的发震断层可能为大川-双石主断裂东侧的一条次级隐伏逆冲断层。     

Seismic risk assessment of interdependent critical infrastructure systems: The case of European gas and electricity networks

We study the seismic vulnerability of the interdependent European gas and electricity transmission networks from a topological point of view, whereby the electricity network depends on the gas network through gas‐fired power plants. First, we assessed the seismic response for each independent network; then we analyzed the increased vulnerability due to their interdependency. We implemented a probabilistic reliability model that encompasses the spatial distribution of both network structures and their seismic hazard exposure using a Geographic Information System. We characterized the network interdependency using the strength of coupling of the interconnections, together with the seismic response of the independent—gas—network. We calculated the network fragility curves of the independent and dependent networks in terms of various performance measures (connectivity loss, power loss, and impact on the population) and found that the gas network is more seismically vulnerable than the electricity network. The interdependency introduces an extra vulnerability to the electricity network response that decreases with the extensiveness of the networks' damage states. Damage was also evaluated at a local level in order to identify the most vulnerable parts of the network, where it was found that the potential for the highest power loss is located in southeast Europe. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enrichment of seismic ground motion databases using Karhunen–Loève expansion

Best estimate seismic analysis are generally based on time‐domain simulations of structural responses. The seismic load is then modeled by a stochastic process representing ground motion. For this purpose, the analyst can use recorded accelerograms or work with synthetically generated ones. The number of ground motion time‐histories available for a given scenario and site condition is limited and generally not sufficient for carrying out more advanced probabilistic structural response analysis. It is then necessary to have at our disposal methods that allow for generating synthetic accelerograms that realistically characterize earthquake ground motions. However, most of the methods proposed in literature for generating synthetic accelerograms do not accurately reproduce the natural variability of ground motion parameters (such as PGA, cumulative absolute velocity, and Arias intensity) observed for recorded time histories. In this paper, we introduce a new method for generating synthetic ground motion, based on Karhunen‐Loève decomposition and a non‐Gaussian stochastic model. The proposed method enables the structural analyst to simulate ground motion time histories featuring the properties mentioned above. To demonstrate its capability, we study the influence of the simulation method on different ground motion parameters and on soil response spectra. We finally compute fragility curves to illustrate the practical application of the proposed method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fragility analysis of low‐rise masonry in‐filled reinforced concrete buildings by a coefficient‐based spectral acceleration method

This study presents a seismic fragility analysis of low‐rise masonry in‐filled (MI) reinforced concrete (RC) buildings using a proposed coefficient‐based spectral acceleration method. The coefficient‐based method, without requiring any complicated finite element analysis, is a simplified procedure for assessing the spectral acceleration demand (or capacity) of buildings subjected to earthquakes. This paper begins with a calibration of the proposed coefficient‐based method for low‐rise MI RC buildings using published experimental results obtained from shaking table tests. Spectral acceleration‐based fragility curves for low‐rise MI RC buildings under various inter‐story drift limits are then constructed using the calibrated coefficient‐based method. A comparison of the experimental and estimated results indicates that the simplified coefficient‐based method can provide good approximations of the spectral accelerations at peak loads of low‐rise MI RC buildings, if a proper set of drift‐related factors and initial fundamental periods of structures are used. Moreover, the fragility curves constructed using the coefficient‐based method can provide a satisfactory vulnerability evaluation for low‐rise MI RC buildings under a given performance level. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

唐山老震区地震活动特征

整理校正唐山长时间地震序列数据,用基于时空ETAS模型的随机除丛法,分析1976年唐山长时间地震序列的活动特点,发现唐山老震区1992年后进入余震活动的晚期阶段,目前地震活动未完全恢复到背景地震的水平。用频度和应变能两种不同的异常指标分析唐山老震区作为“余震窗口”对中强震的指示意义,发现唐山余震窗口的早期阶段（1980-1986年）,频次作异常指标映震效果较好,晚期阶段（1992-2010年）,应变能作为异常指标映震效果更好。     

Spatio-temporal characteristics of aftershocks and seismogenic structure of the 2011 MW9.0 Tohoku earthquake,Japan

The Tohoku megathrust earthquake, which occurred on March 11, 2011 and had an epicenter that was 70 km east of Tohoku, Japan, resulted in an estimated ten's of billions of dollars in damage and a death toll of more than 15 thousand lives, yet few studies have documented key spatio-temporal seismogenic characteristics. Specifically, the temporal decay of aftershock activity, the number of strong aftershocks (with magnitudes greater than or equal to 7.0), the magnitude of the greatest aftershock, and area of possible aftershocks. Forecasted results from this study are based on Gutenberg-Richter's relation, Bath's law, Omori's law, and Well's relation of rupture scale utilizing the magnitude and statistical parameters of earthquakes in USA and China (Landers, Northridge, Hector Mine, San Simeon and Wenchuan earthquakes). The number of strong aftershocks, the parameters of Gutenberg-Richter's relation, and the modified form of Omori's law are confirmed based on the aftershock sequence data from the M_W9.0 Tohoku earthquake. Moreover, for a large earthquake, the seismogenic structure could be a fault, a fault system, or an intersection of several faults. The seismogenic structure of the earthquake suggests that the event occurred on a thrust fault near the Japan trench within the overriding plate that subsequently triggered three or more active faults producing large aftershocks.     

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