地震危险性评价中余震活动的影响--以邢台余震区为例

目前通用的地震危险性模型在确定有关地震活动性参数时都强调删除余震,其理由是因为所应用的地震活动模型是泊松模型。但是在现实的地震灾害中,有些是因为余震活动所引起的。忽略余震活动的影响,可能会低估某些区域的地震危险。本文提出考虑余震活动的地震危险性分析模型,并从此模型出发,以邢台地震为例,对余震区内、余震区边界和余震区外等场点计算了考虑余震活动的地震危险性结果,同时,在原有模型的基础上,只改变余震区所处的潜在震源区的地震年发生率,计算相同场点的地震危险性结果,并把这两个结果与不考虑余震活动的结果进行比较,在此基础上讨论在某些区域考虑余震活动的必要性。     

Uniform hazard versus uniform risk bases for performance‐based earthquake engineering of light‐frame wood construction

This paper investigates the implications of designing for uniform hazard versus uniform risk for light‐frame wood residential construction subjected to earthquakes in the United States. Using simple structural models of one‐story residences with typical lateral force‐resisting systems (shear walls) found in buildings in western, eastern and central regions of the United States as illustrations, the seismic demands are determined using nonlinear dynamic time‐history analyses, whereas the collapse capacities are determined using incremental dynamic analyses. The probabilities of collapse, conditioned on the occurrence of the maximum considered earthquakes and design earthquakes stipulated in ASCE Standard 7‐05, and the collapse margins of these typical residential structures are compared for typical construction practices in different regions in the United States. The calculated collapse inter‐story drifts are compared with the limits stipulated in FEMA 356/ASCE Standard 41‐06 and observed in the recent experimental testing. The results of this study provide insights into residential building risk assessment and the relation between building seismic performance implied by the current earthquake‐resistant design and construction practices and performance levels in performance‐based engineering of light‐frame wood construction being considered by the SEI/ASCE committee on reliability‐based design of wood structures. Further code developments are necessary to achieve the goal of uniform risk in earthquake‐resistant residential construction. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于性能的基础隔震钢筋混凝土框剪结构的倒塌可靠度分析

利用基于性能的结构可靠度分析方法,对基础隔震钢筋混凝土框剪结构进行分析研究。选取20条实际地震动记录,以0.2g为步长对结构地震动参数PGA进行调幅后,建立了140个结构-地震动样本空间。选取上部结构的最大层间位移角、隔震层位移为量化指标,对每一个样本进行动力非线性时程分析后,将结构响应进行统计得到结构在各地震动强度下超越极限破坏状态的概率,将其绘制成基础隔震钢筋混凝土框剪结构的易损性曲线并利用整体可靠度方法分析结构发生倒塌的可靠度指标。该方法直观地反映了结构发生倒塌的概率,为结构的地震损失评估提供依据。     

伊朗中东部Ghaen-Birjand地区上地壳各向异性研究c

通过对1997年5月10日Zirkuh ( Ghaen-Birjand )破坏性地震若干余震横波分裂现象的观测，研究了该地区上地壳各向异性特征. 采用质点运动图和纵横比两种不同手段获取了横波分裂参数. 所选余震记录显示了明显的横波分裂，说明该地区介质具有强烈的各向异性. 通过质点运动的方法得出:快横波的偏振方向为22N19E；且快、慢横波的延时之差为6516 ms. 用纵横比的方法得到的结果为:快横波的偏振方向35N18E, 且快、慢横波的延时之差为(4910)ms. 对于厚约5 km各向异性均匀分布的水平层， 我们采用了一个沿应力分布的裂纹模型，并采用垂直于N22E排列, 且密度为0.01的裂纹情况来解释本文结果. 由于研究范围是上地壳，因此假设裂纹被水填充. 最后通过Hudson模型，对裂纹密度为0.005, 0.01和0.03的模型，给出横波速度随传播方向与裂纹对称轴夹角的变化曲线. 结果表明，当横波的偏振平行于裂纹表面时波速不随角度变化；而偏振垂直于裂纹表面时，速度曲线则有明显变化.      

On the treatment of uncertainties in the development of fragility functions for earthquake loss estimation of building portfolios

State‐of‐the‐art methods for the assessment of building fragility consider the structural capacity and seismic demand variability in the estimation of the probability of exceeding different damage states. However, questions remain regarding the appropriate treatment of such sources of uncertainty from a statistical significance perspective. In this study, material, geometrical and mechanical properties of a number of building classes are simulated by means of a Monte Carlo sampling process in which the statistical distribution of the aforementioned parameters is taken into consideration. Record selection is performed in accordance with hazard‐consistent distributions of a comprehensive set of intensity measures, and issues related with sufficiency, efficiency, predictability and scaling robustness are addressed. Based on the appraised minimum number of ground motion records required to achieve statistically meaningful estimates of response variability conditioned on different levels of seismic intensity, the concept of conditional fragility functions is presented. These functions translate the probability of exceeding a set of damage states as a function of a secondary sufficient intensity measure, when records are selected and scaled for a particular level of primary seismic intensity parameter. It is demonstrated that this process allows a hazard‐consistent and statistically meaningful representation of uncertainty and correlation in the estimation of intensity‐dependent damage exceedance probabilities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of seismic fragility surfaces for reinforced concrete buildings by means of nonlinear time‐history analysis

Fragility curves are generally developed using a single parameter to relate the level of shaking to the expected structural damage. The main goal of this work is to use several parameters to characterize the earthquake ground motion. The fragility curves will, therefore, become surfaces when the ground motion is represented by two parameters. To this end, the roles of various strong‐motion parameters on the induced damage in the structure are compared through nonlinear time‐history numerical calculations. A robust structural model that can be used to perform numerous nonlinear dynamic calculations, with an acceptable cost, is adopted. The developed model is based on the use of structural elements with concentrated nonlinear damage mechanics and plasticity‐type behavior. The relations between numerous ground‐motion parameters, characterizing different aspects of the shaking, and the computed damage are analyzed and discussed. Natural and synthetic accelerograms were chosen/computed based on a consideration of the magnitude‐distance ranges of design earthquakes. A complete methodology for building fragility surfaces based on the damage calculation through nonlinear numerical analysis of multi‐degree‐of‐freedom systems is proposed. The fragility surfaces are built to represent the probability that a given damage level is reached (or exceeded) for any given level of ground motion characterized by the two chosen parameters. The results show that an increase from one to two ground‐motion parameters leads to a significant reduction in the scatter in the fragility analysis and allows the uncertainties related to the effect of the second ground‐motion parameter to be accounted for within risk assessments. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simplified fragility analysis of fan type cable stayed bridges

A simplified fragility analysis of fan type cable stayed bridges using Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) procedure is presented for determining their failure probability under random ground motion. Seismic input to the bridge support is considered to be a risk consistent response spectrum which is obtained from a separate analysis. For the response analysis, the bridge deck is modeled as a beam supported on springs at different points. The stiffnesses of the springs are determined by a separate 2D static analysis of cable-tower-deck system. The analysis provides a coupled stiffness matrix for the spring system. A continuum method of analysis using dynamic stiffness is used to determine the dynamic properties of the bridges .The response of the bridge deck is obtained by the response spectrum method of analysis as applied to multidegree of freedom system which duly takes into account the quasi - static component of bridge deck vibration. The fragility analysis includes uncertainties arising due to the variation in ground motion, material property, modeling, method of analysis, ductility factor and damage concentration effect. Probability of failure of the bridge deck is determined by the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method of reliability. A three span double plane symmetrical fan type cable stayed bridge of total span 689 m, is used as an illustrative example. The fragility curves for the bridge deck failure are obtained under a number of parametric variations. Some of the important conclusions of the study indicate that (i) not only vertical component but also the horizontal component of ground motion has considerable effect on the probability of failure; (ii) ground motion with no time lag between support excitations provides a smaller probability of failure as compared to ground motion with very large time lag between support excitation; and (iii) probability of failure may considerably increase for soft soil condition.     

1973年炉霍大地震(Ms=7.6)最大余震(Ms=6.3)的库仑破裂应力触发

1973年2月6日在四川省炉霍发生Ms7.6大地震，震后在震中周围出现丰富的余震，其最大余震（Ms6.3）发生在鲜水河断裂和玉树－甘孜断裂之间的正断层活动区内。本文根据震源机制解，地表破裂，同震位错分布，地震地质构造等资料，建立炉霍走大地震破裂的弹性位错模型，计算该大地震在周围正断层滑动方向上引起的库仑破裂应力变化（△CFS），结果表明，最大余震发生在库仑破裂应力增加（△CFS＞0）的地区，△CFS＝4.5MPa,因此认为，最大余震可能是由主震引起的库仑破裂应力变化触发的。     

唐山与通海两大地震的强余震的差别及其原因探讨

1970年通海地震序列与1976年唐山地震序列的对比表明,两次地震的余震衰减,余震强度和频度,余震分布区的形状等有区别.对此提出了一种解释：若余震分布区域的长轴长度a与短轴长度b之比a/b越大,则震源体越接近于一个面,在一个面上进行的调整过程应当比较简单,余震的衰减比较快,强余震比较少而小;反之则震源体越表现出一个体的形态,在一个体内进行的调整过程应当比较复杂,余震衰减比较慢,强余震比较多而大.对于那些在主震后能够很快进行定位并勾画出余震区域轮廓的情况,可以尝试利用a/b快速判断后面强余震的多少以及余震衰减的快慢.     

伊兹米特地震的余震序列特征分析

对１９９９年８月１７日伊兹米特７．４级地震后的２０６９次Ｍ≥２．０余震进行了时间、空间序列分析,并对所得结果进行了讨论。