2014 年新疆于田MS 7. 3 地震序列特征及早期趋势判断

介绍了2014年2月12日新疆于田MS7. 3 地震的基本参数、发震构造和地震序列特征,并与2008 年于田MS7. 3 地震序列特征进行对比分析。结果显示,2014 年于田MS7. 3 地震有MS5. 4 直接前震,序列强余震频次低、余震衰减较快,目前最大余震震级为MS5. 7; 通过分析历史地震序列类型、计算于田单台序列的h 值、b 值、主震释放的能量与序列能量的比值等参数,初步判断于田MS7. 3 地震序列为“前震—主震—余震型”。     

Seismic fragility of lightly reinforced concrete frames with masonry infills

Seismic fragility of lightly reinforced concrete frames with masonry infills is assessed through numerical simulations considering uncertainty in ground motion and building materials. To achieve this aim, a numerical model of the components is developed, a rational approach to proportion and locate individual struts in the equivalent three‐strut model is proposed, and an explicit nonlinear column shear response model accounting for the infill–column interaction and soft‐story mechanism is employed. The proposed numerical model is used to (1) generate probabilistic seismic demand models accounting for a wide range of ground motion intensities with different frequency content and (2) determine limit state models obtained from nonlinear pushover analysis and incremental dynamic analysis. Using the demand and limit state model, fragility curves for the masonry‐infilled frames are developed to investigate the impact of various infill properties on the frame vulnerability. It is observed that the beneficial effect of the masonry infill diminishes at more severe limit states because of the interaction with the boundary frame. In some cases, this effect almost vanishes or switches to an adverse effect beyond a threshold of ground motion intensities. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Framework of aftershock fragility assessment–case studies: older California reinforced concrete building frames

Current seismic design codes and damage estimation tools neglect the influence of successive events on structures. However, recent earthquakes have demonstrated that structures damaged during an initial event (mainshock) are more vulnerable to severe damage and collapse during a subsequent event (aftershock). This increased vulnerability to damage translates to increased likelihood of loss of use, property, and life. Thus, a reliable risk assessment tool is required that characterizes the risk of the undamaged structure subjected to an initial event and the risk of the damaged structure under subsequent events. In this paper, a framework for development of aftershock fragilities is presented; these aftershock fragilities define the likelihood that a building damaged during a mainshock will exhibit a given damage state following one or more aftershocks. Thus, the framework provides a method for characterizing the risk associated with damage accumulation in the structure. The framework includes the following: (i) creation of a numerical model of the structure; (ii) characterization of building damage states; (iii) generation of a suite of mainshock–aftershocks; (iv) mainshock–aftershock analyses; and (v) development of aftershock fragility curves using probabilistic aftershock demand models, defined as a linear regression of aftershock demand–intensity pairs in a logarithmic space, and damage‐state prediction models. The framework is not limited to a specific structure type but requires numerical models defining structural response and linking structural response with damage. In the current study, non‐ductile RC frames (low‐rise, mid‐rise, and high‐rise) are selected as case studies for the application of the framework. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

介质黏滞性质对余震活动影响的数值模拟

假定主震破裂面上残余凹凸体的破裂导致余震,残余凹凸体尺度符合分形分布,在破裂面上随机分布,残余凹凸体破裂/失稳强度符合对数正态分布;以岩石圈下部粘弹介质震后应力松弛作为导致残余凹凸体破裂的动力输入,加载应力按负指数形式衰减;以库仑破裂准则作为失稳判据,考虑残余凹凸体破裂对附近区域的应力加载,在不同条件下模拟生成包含时、空、强三要素的人工"余震"序列。通过G-R关系及修改的大森公式,检测模拟输出与实际余震活动统计特征的吻合程度,以此作为进一步调整模型参数的依据。在此基础上重点讨论介质黏滞性质对余震活动的影响。结果显示:表征岩石物理特性的黏滞系数对余震活动持续时间、衰减快慢起重要的控制作用,黏滞系数与衰减系数之间显示负指数的相关关系。余震序列G-R关系与黏滞系数关系不大,主要受控于残余凹凸体的尺度分布,即与构造不均匀性关系更为密切。     

地震破裂的科里奥利力的余震效应在中国大陆外的震例研究及普适性讨论

对地震发生时快速错动的断层两盘产生的科里奥利力的研究做了简短回顾,以此理论与方法对中国大陆外的部分震例,包括中国台湾地区及中亚土耳其地区发生的大地震的余震进行讨论,并简短讨论了地震破裂的科里奥利力效应预测余震强度用于全球的普适性问题。     

2003年9月27日中蒙俄交界处7.9级大震的预测回顾

回顾了我们对2003年9月27日中蒙俄交界处7．9级地震(矩震级为8级)的预测。从Corioli力观点讨论了该震的强余震(矩震级7．3级)。     

Freestanding block overturning fragilities: Numerical simulation and experimental validation

The overturning fragilities of symmetric and asymmetric freestanding blocks, ranging in height from 0.54 to 3.6 m and with height‐to‐width ratios ranging from 2.1 to 6.6, are determined numerically. A probabilistic formulation regularizes the overturning responses when exposed to earthquake‐like random‐vibration waveforms. The peak amplitude of the forcing excitation (peak ground acceleration or PGA) is parameterized as a function of the block size, block shape, overturning probability, and either the PGA normalized peak ground velocity (PGV/PGA), spectral acceleration at 1 s (S_a(1)/PGA), or spectral acceleration at 2 s (S_a(2)/PGA). These later intensity measures are correlated with the duration of the predominant acceleration pulse. The overturning fragilities are compared with shake table experiments using blocks ranging in height from ～0.2 to 1.2 m and with height‐to‐width ratios ranging from ～2 to 10. Excitations utilized in the shake table experiments include recordings of the 1979 Imperial Valley, 1985 Michoacan, 1999 Duzce, 1999 Chi‐Chi, and 2002 Denali Earthquakes along with synthetic waveforms. The overturning fragilities accurately represent the overturning responses of blocks with simple basal contact conditions. Objects with multiple rocking points, such as precariously balanced rocks, are more fragile than predicted. Nondestructive tilting tests are used to account for blocks with complex basal contact conditions, demonstrating that these blocks overturn similarly to more slender blocks with simple contact conditions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards probabilistic seismic performance of vehicle-bridge interaction systems: From stochastic dynamic model to fragility analysis

This paper aims to assess the seismic fragility of vehicle-bridge-interaction (VBI) systems considering the effects of vehicle types, traffic conditions, and road surface qualities. A stochastic nonlinear mechanical model for the earthquake-VBI system is developed, and the fragility functions for the proposed VBI model are derived by considering the relevant probabilistic seismic demand parameters. On the basis of a typical four-span continuous prestressed concrete highway bridge in China, a complete numerical model for the VBI system is built considering multiple uncertainties from bridge and vehicle parameters, as well as the road surface qualities. A total of 120 real ground motion records with different combinations of magnitude-source-to-site distance (M-R) and earthquake intensity characteristics are selected. Meanwhile, 80 scenarios in terms of different combinations of vehicle types, vehicle speeds, and road surface irregularities are defined. In this context, 96,000 nonlinear time-history analyses are performed, and the developed fragility models are applied to the VBI system at both component and system levels. Results indicate that the fragilities of pier drift, bearing shear strain, and the overall VBI system increase with the increase of the vehicle weight or the decrease of the vehicle speed, while the vertical deck displacement is dominated by the vehicle weight. It is also found that the road surface quality has a negligible effect on both component and system fragilities.     

西藏地区地震类型特征研究

对1970年以来西藏地区139组5级以上地震序列类型进行统计及特征分析,发现西藏地区中强以上地震序列以主—余型和孤立型为主,约占79.1%。随主震震级的增加,主—余型所占比例逐渐增加,孤立型和多震型所占比例减少。绝大多数地震的最大震级余震在主震后3个月内发生。西藏地区多震型地震主要发生西藏中强以上地震活跃时段,因此在西藏及邻区5级以上地震频度较高时需注意多震型地震的发生。从地震序列类型空间分布来看,孤立型地震和主—余型地震大多发生在构造相对单一的地区,而多震型地震则大多发生在构造复杂且存在多组构造交汇的区域。     

Characteristics of the May 12,2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 Earthquake Sequence and Discussion on Relevant Problems

The aftershock activity of the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 Earthquake Sequence shows an obvious segmented feature. Most of the large aftershocks were distributed in the north and south parts of the aftershock zone. Thrusting was dominant with a small amount of strike-slip component in the south part. The aftershock activity decayed gradually, presenting the sequence features of a mainshock-aftershock pattern. The north part was the ending area of the maiushock fracture where strike-slipping was dominant, showing an obvious swarm feature. Therefore it became the major area for large aftershocks. The modulation of the earth tide on aftershock activity is remarkable; most large aftershocks occur during the period of flood and neap tide. The time period around 16:00 was the dominant occurring time for large aftershocks. The p-value, a parameter of modified Omori formula, increases gradually with time, and reaches about 1 at the end. Based on previous study, the sequence patterns, magnitude of maximum aftershock, as well as the duration of aftershock activity has been discussed. The primary results also show that the magnitude difference between the maiushockand the maximum aftershock is proportional to the rupture size of the maiushock for huge earthquakes of about Ms8.0. This means that when the magnitudes of the earthquakes are nearly the same, large rupture size corresponds to sufficient energy release.