对1989年大同－阳高地震序列两次强余震发震时间的灰色预测

应用灰色系统理论对１９８９年大同－阳高６．１级地震序列两次强余震（系指Ｍ＿Ｌ≥４．７）的发震时间进行了尝试性预测，其结果与事实比较吻合，表明该方法在震后短时间内，用仅有的部分序列资料来估计其发展趋势，具有一定的实际意义。     

1982年卢龙MemＳsub6.1地震余震序列震源机制的矩张量反演

用矩张量反演的方法，通过对1982年10月19日河北卢龙MＳ6.1地震的余震序列的震源机制求解，认为卢龙盆地的主压应力轴方位角为N74deg;E，近东西向；而盆地的北边变为N43deg;E；在盆地中心有些部位主压应力轴转为北西方向，与盆地周边的主压应力轴方位几乎垂直. 这说明在卢龙地震中构造的不同部位地壳应力方位很不一致，反映出卢龙地区构造活动的复杂性. 一方面，由于卢龙位处中国大陆东部，受到来自东部的日本海盆地在太平洋板块驱动力作用下的挤压；另一方面，卢龙又夹持在燕山地块与华北板块之间，因而受块体边界的限制也是很明显的.      

科里奥利力效应及对强余震预报方法的研究(一)─预报方法的原理、思路

科里奥利力（Corioli）是一个在旋转系统中运动的物体必然伴随的力,地震是在地球这一旋转系统中相对两断层盘的突然运动过程,因而断层的运动必然要伴随科里奥利力。由于断层错动旋性不同（左旋、右旋等）,因而科里奥利力就会表现出使断层错动时两盘压紧或拉张的效应,压紧则主震释放能量不彻底,随后的余震就强,反之余震弱,这样就可从断层错动方向预报余震强度。     

Calculation of the h-value during Superposing of Strong Earthquake Sequences and Its Application in Earthquake Prediction

For a strong earthquake swarm, the key to estimate the frequency attenuation coefficient h-value of ensuing strong earthquake sequence accurately lies in quantitative calculation and subtraction of the foreshock sequence effect.Taking the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm sequence as an example, we analyzed and compared the h-values when foreshock effect has been subtracted or not subtracted. The result shows that the boundary between the two great difference is the M56.6 earthquake on April 11,1997. The h-values with foreshock effect subtracted are all Iess than 1 before the moderately strong earthquakes, but after the earthquake, the h-values are all greater than 1. On the contrary, the h-values with foreshock effect do not show this kind of turning variation.Practical test results shows that quantitatively subtracting foreshock effect is beneficial to the judgement of the trend of the activity of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm. This provides the basis for accurately grasping sequence development and     

Development of fragility curves using high‐dimensional model representation

Fragility curves represent the conditional probability that a structure's response may exceed the performance limit for a given ground motion intensity. Conventional methods for computing building fragilities are either based on statistical extrapolation of detailed analyses on one or two specific buildings or make use of Monte Carlo simulation with these models. However, the Monte Carlo technique usually requires a relatively large number of simulations to obtain a sufficiently reliable estimate of the fragilities, and it is computationally expensive and time consuming to simulate the required thousands of time history analyses. In this paper, high‐dimensional model representation based response surface method together with the Monte Carlo simulation is used to develop the fragility curve, which is then compared with that obtained by using Latin hypercube sampling. It is used to replace the algorithmic performance‐function with an explicit functional relationship, fitting a functional approximation, thereby reducing the number of expensive numerical analyses. After the functional approximation has been made, Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the fragility curve of the system. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vulnerability of ordinary moment resistant concrete frames

The effects of structural modeling (bar slip in lap splice), ground motion selection process (epsilon effect) and size of a structure (number of bays and stories) on the fragility of reinforced concrete ordinary moment resisting frames are investigated. An analytical model is developed to account for bar slip in lap splice, which exhibits good correlation with existing experimental data. Then, incremental dynamic analysis is used to derive the fragility curves for four model structures. The model structures simulate frames with a different number of bays and stories. Finally, the fragility curves are corrected for the epsilon effect. The results show that slip in the lap splice can significantly increase the failure probability, especially for the collapse prevention limit state. At the same time, it is found that spectral shape has a significant impact on the fragility curves. It is also found that accounting for or ignoring bar slip or epsilon effects increases the probability of failure for larger structures. This indicates an unconservative bias in the safety of larger structures.     

Seismic assessment of damaged piloti‐type RC building subjected to successive earthquakes

Building structures damaged by a seismic event may be exposed to the risk of aftershocks or another event within a certain period. In this paper, the seismic assessment of damaged piloti‐type RC buildings was carried out to evaluate probabilistic retrofitting effects under successive earthquakes. First, a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of retrofitting was proposed, and then the proposed methodology was demonstrated with a structure retrofitted with buckling‐restrained braces (BRBs). For consideration of realistic successive earthquakes, past records measured at the same station were combined. Within the framework, a series of nonlinear time history analyses were performed for an as‐is model subjected to single earthquake, a damaged model subjected to successive earthquakes, and a damaged model retrofitted with BRBs subjected to successive earthquakes. In addition, fragility analysis was systematically applied in the framework for evaluation of effectiveness of the retrofitting strategy. The proposed framework was capable of quantifying the influence of successive earthquakes and evaluating the effectiveness of BRB retrofitting by considering the severity of the first earthquake damage and the hysteresis behavior of the retrofit element. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Generation of hazard-consistent fragility curves

This paper presents an analytical method for generating fragility curves of structures. In the proposed method, seismic sources, path attenuation, local soil conditions, and nonlinear building behavior are systematically considered. The uncertainties in the earthquake-site-structure system are quantified by considering the uncertainties in the seismic, site, and structural parameters that define the system. For an illustration, the proposed method is used to generate fragility curves and a damge probability matrix for Smith Hall on the main campus of The University of Memphis, Memphis, Tennessee.     

Seismic performance evaluation of typical dampers designed by Chinese building code

Adding dampers is a commonly adopted seismic risk mitigation strategy for modern buildings, and the corresponding design procedure of dampers has been well established by the Chinese Building Code. Even though all types of dampers are designed by the same procedure, actual seismic performance of the building may differ from one to the others. In this study, a nine-story benchmark steel building is established, and three different and typical types of dampers are designed according to the Chinese Building Code to realize structural vibration control under strong earthquake excitation. The seismic response of the prototype building equipped with a viscoelastic damper, viscous damper and buckling-restrained brace(BRB) subjected to 10 earthquake records are calculated, and Incremental Dynamic Analysis(IDA) is performed to describe progressive damage of the structure under increasing earthquake intensity. In the perspective of fragility, it shows that the viscoelastic damper has the highest collapse margin ratio(CMR), and the viscous damper provides the best drift control. Both the BRB and viscoelastic dampers can effectively reduce the floor acceleration responses in the mid-rise building.     

A discussion on Corioli force effect and aftershock activity tendency of the M=8.1 Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake on Nov. 14, 2001

Introduction An M=8.1 earthquake occurred to the west of the Kunlun Mountain Pass on November 14, 2001 (Kunlun Mountain earthquake for short). It is the largest earthquake during the latest 50 years in Chinese mainland since the 1951 Dangxiong, Tibet M=8.0 earthquake, and it broke the status that there had not occurred any M7.0 earthquake during the subsequent 4 years since the 1997 Mani, Tibet M=7.5 earthquake. Hereafter, the preparation and evolution process of large earthquakes, the v…