非纬向基流中爆发性气旋的数值研究

利用以MM4为基础的自适应网格模式,对1981年月12月20日20时-21日20时一次太平洋西部气旋强烈爆发的过程进行了数值模拟研究得出:(1)气旋强烈爆发的过程是非常短暂的,是非地转调整的结果;(2)气旋爆发过程中基流由西南风转为准西风;(3)基流的反气旋性弯曲和非热成风空间分布不均匀性与气旋的强烈爆发有明显的联系.关键词:自适应网格,爆发性气旋,非地转调整,高空急流.     

灾害风险的决定因素及其管理

灾害风险的影响不仅由灾害本身决定,更取决于风险的决定因素——暴露度和脆弱性。暴露度和脆弱性是动态的、多维度的。高暴露度和脆弱性是不平衡发展的结果。在气候变化的背景下,只有正确认识暴露度和脆弱性的维度,重视风险沟通和风险累积,选择适当的方法进行风险评估,才能设计和实施有效的灾害风险管理战略以适应长期气候变化。在致力于降低、转移和分担风险的同时,还要对灾害风险进行防御和响应,提高对不断变化的风险的恢复力。通过使用这些整合的灾害风险管理方法,灾害风险管理决策与应对措施会限制暴露度和脆弱性,使气候变化适应成为可能。     

Maladaptation and development as usual? Investigating climate change mitigation and adaptation projects in Cambodia

ABSTRACT

Based on research into multiple types of climate change mitigation and adaptation (CCMA) projects and policies in Cambodia, this paper documents intersecting social and environmental conflicts that bear striking resemblance to well-documented issues in the history of development projects. Using data from three case studies, we highlight the ways that industrial development and CCMA initiatives are intertwined in both policy and project creation, and how this confluence is creating potentials for maladaptive outcomes. Each case study involves partnerships between international institutions and the national government, each deploys CCMA as either a primary or supporting legitimation, and each failed to adhere to institutional and/or internationally recognized standards of justice. In Cambodia, mismanaged projects are typically blamed on the kleptocratic and patrimonial governance system. We show how such blame obscures the collusion of international partners, who also sidestep their own safeguards, and ignores the potential for maladaptation at the project level and the adverse social and environmental impacts of the policies themselves.

Key policy insights

• Initiatives to mitigate or adapt to climate change look very much like the development projects that caused climate change: Extreme caution must be exercised to ensure policies and projects do not exacerbate the conditions driving climate change.

• Safeguards ‘on paper’ are insufficient to avoid negative impacts and strict accountability mechanisms must be put in place.

• Academic researchers can be part of that accountability mechanism through case study reports, policy briefs, technical facilitation to help ensure community needs are met and safeguards are executed as written.

• Impacts beyond the project scale must be assessed to avoid negative consequences for social and ecological systems at the landscape level.

     

中尺度数值模式的自适应网格设计

引进了自适应网格设计的方法。自适应网要生成行技术基础变分原理,所生成的网格具有光滑性、一定程度的正交性和机调节网格疏密程度的优点,这种新技术可任意加密局地网格,从而达到以较小的计算量获得较高的计算精度的目的。将自适应网格技术应用于ＭＭ４中,并用来模拟１９２年６月１４日这次大范围暴雨过程。结果表明,采用自适应网格后计算稳定,２４ｈ降水预报得到明显改善。     

考虑相似度和可信度的模糊自适应Web服务选择

提出了一种基于模糊方法并考虑用户评价属性(相似度和可信度)的Web选择算法,从Web服务质量数据来源角度对服务质量的属性进行了分类和计算.对非功能质量属性,使用模糊控制的度量方法,将非功能属性值转换成0～1之间的实数值.使用反馈相似度和可信度相结合的方法,将最终的推荐权值推荐给用户.该方法的提出有助于提高Web服务选择结果的准确性.     

城乡之间：当代农村家庭的空间生产何以可能？

从空间生产理论出发,以W村为研究个案,采用参与式观察和深度访谈方法,基于“空间变换”与“农村家庭”的交叠过程,探讨农村家庭的发展。研究发现：当代农村家庭生计的空间穿梭、家庭居住的空间镶嵌,以及家庭生活方式的空间效仿等实践是农村家庭“离乡不离农”的“城乡之间”发展新方式。在空间表象为农村家庭与城市互融互嵌、不分物质、不分精神的共同富裕需求。但城乡现实情境的差异,农村家庭仍表现出对农业生产以及农村生活的不自信,呈现出农村社会人伦与位育日渐式微的表征性空间。在全面推进乡村振兴以及共同富裕的进程中,应建设“零价差”的社会政策空间,再塑村落自信的农村家庭发展外部空间,重构个体自主的农村家庭发展内部空间,据此建构回应家庭发展内生需求的城乡二元物理空间及其一元社会服务空间。     

日本多主体适应气候变化框架机制及对中国的启示——基于法律政策的视角

通过系统梳理日本适应气候变化法律政策的发展历程,分析日本多主体适应气候变化的框架机制,结合其目前具体的适应实践进展,总结出可供中国借鉴的经验启示。研究发现,日本适应气候变化法律政策的发展经历了由重减缓、轻适应,到上升至国家战略,再到立法这3个阶段,形成了以国家、国立环境研究所、地方公共团体、地区气候变化适应中心、企业和居民为主体的多主体适应框架,从科研成果与决策应用转化、适应信息“共享—反馈—更新”有效循环、建立跨地区合作平台、适应资金支持、实施进度监测管理等5个方面构建了多主体适应气候变化机制。目前日本各适应主体逐步开展适应气候变化实践,但适应工作仍处于初期阶段,适应信息共享体系、跨地区合作细则以及适应政策实施效果评价体系有待进一步完善。结合日本的法律政策经验和中国具体情况,提出了中国应科学定位适应气候变化法律地位、加快立法进程,完善“监测评估—信息共享—适应行动—效果评价”多主体适应框架的机制体制,引导企业采取气候风险管理和适应性商业活动,提高居民的适应认知和适应能力的政策建议。     

An operational framework for equity in the 2015 Agreement

Equity is a highly contentious but essential area of negotiation, if a stable and effective international climate agreement with broad participation is to be achieved. Three perspectives on the magnitude dimensions of equity are identified that need consideration in the process of formulating an agreement: agreement on a ‘safe’ temperature goal; agreement on the required global effort; and agreement on a fair division of contributions. The opportunities are explored for reconciling these perspectives in an operational framework for equity. Specifically, this means the importance of the adopted a global temperature goal of below 2°C temperature increase by the end of the century. In addition, an initial approach to quantifying adaption costs is suggested, while the importance of arriving at a global mitigation goal is emphasized. It is argued that finance and technology support commensurate with the required global mitigation and adaptation effort is an important element of equity.

Policy relevance

The centrality of equity, in terms of both form and magnitude, will be vital for the design and implementation of a 2015 Agreement that is capable of achieving the objectives of the Convention. Three central areas of debate within global negotiations are identified and discussed: an appropriate temperature goal; global goals for adaptation, mitigation, finance, and technological support; and the division of global effort. The opportunities for reconciling the areas of debate are explored specifically in the context of an Equity Reference Framework, along with suggestions for approaches to quantifying adaptation needs.     

Adaptive hybrid global inversion algorithm

Most geophysical inversions can be regarded as multiparameter, nonlinear, and multiminimum discontinuous optimization problems. An adaptive hybrid global inversion algorithm based on simulated annealing, downhill simplex method, uniform design, and adaptive annealing rule is formulated. Numeral test and model computation show that this algorithm has very fast speed and high efficiency in searching for global minimum. Project sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49474232) and Special Foundation under the auspices of president of Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

海南岛红树植物的解剖生态研究及其地质意义

在对不同红树属种系统解剖的基础上,总结了红树植物根、茎、叶等不同营养器官的一般性解剖结构特征,探讨了红树植物解剖结构与生态适应间的关系,指出了现代红树植物解剖、生态的研究在古植物学和煤沉积学方面的意义。