1951—2008年北京极端天气事件分析

采用湖南14个地市州所在地国家气象站1980—2013年逐分钟降雨资料, 分别利用模糊识别法、芝加哥法、Pilgrim & cordery法及同频率法对各地短历时60 min、90 min、120 min、150 min、180 min以5 min为单位时段的暴雨雨型进行了识别和推求, 结果表明:推求的各地暴雨雨型基本以峰值在前部的单峰型为主; 芝加哥、Pilgrim & cordery计算的峰值、强度相当, 推求的各历时暴雨雨型基本一致, 也更接近实际, 同频率法相对来说效果较差些。

     

吉林省通榆县旅游资源模糊评价研究

该文基于模糊数学的理论和方法 ,从不同角度、不同层次对吉林省通榆县的旅游资源进行综合评价 ,并针对旅游资源特征 ,提出了发展旅游业的基本构思。     

TYPHOON ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN RELATION WITH EL NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS

Statistic and typical-year composition methods are used to study the northwest Pacific typhoon activities in relation with the EI Niño and La Niña events. The result indicates that the typhoon tends to be inactive in the EI Niño years and active in the La Niña years and it is also dependent on the onset and ending time and intensity of the events and areas of genesis of typhoons. With statistic features of the frequency of typhoon activity in the EI Niño and La Niña years and the time-lag correlation between the frequency and sea surface temperature(SST), useful information is provided for the prediction of typhoon occurrence. In addition, the singular values disassemble(SVD)method is applied to study the correlation between the geopotential field and SST field. The result shows that the air-sea coupling in the EI Niño years is unfavorable for the typhoon to develop. Which take place with a smaller number. Opposite situations are found with the La Niña years.     

WRF模式与Topmodel模型在洪水预报中的耦合预报试验研究

基于空间分辨率90 m×90 m的湖北荆门漳河水库数字高程模型（DEM）地形数据,并从2012-2015年选取了20场洪水过程（其中16场用于模拟,4场用于检验）,将华中区域数值天气预报业务模式WRF提供的三重嵌套空间分辨率3 km×3 km、9 km×9 km和27 km×27 km预报降雨与集总式新安江模型以及半分布式水文模型Topmodel耦合进行洪水预报试验。通过对比试验得到以下结论：当流域降雨的时、空分布比较均匀时,集总式新安江模型可以较准确地预报出洪峰流量和峰现时间,而当降雨时、空分布差异较大时,预报误差也会随之增大。基于DEM数据建立的Topmodel模型可以反映不同降雨时、空分布下洪水预报结果的差异,试验结果表明,3 km×3 km和9 km×9 km洪水预报的输出结果比较接近,且在确定性系数和洪峰相对误差上要优于27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果,而在峰现时差的预报上,则是27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果与实测较吻合。通过研究还发现,虽然当流域降雨的时、空分布存在一定差异时,3种空间分辨率的WRF预报降雨均无法预报出与实测一致的降雨分布,但是在某些情况下,当降雨的时间分布误差和空间分布误差相抵消时,仍然可以得到较为准确的洪水预报结果。因此,高时、空分辨率的模式预报降雨并不一定就能对洪水预报结果产生正贡献,需要通过反复尝试寻找水文模型和数值模式耦合的最佳时、空分辨率。     

波形差异反演方法及其在气藏描述中的应用

在油气藏开发中后期,如何利用的已有的勘探成果和丰富的油气藏知识,加深对勘探区域油气开发潜力的认识,为油气田的稳产高产服务,是摆在油气田中后期开发人员面前的难题.油气田开发的研究人员,利用现有的资料,开发出了很多方法,结合地震测井等资料为油气田的稳产高产做出了巨大的贡献.本文在分析了地震波在地质体中传播过程中能量变化,相应的产生了振幅变化的理论,利用三维地震数据,通过对三维地震数据解释层位对应的波形差异的分析,结合工区内的生产井和开发井的对应地层中的油气信息,进行反演得到地层的波形差异数据体,利用相应的绘图软件绘制二维平面图形,结合工区内的沉积相等地质信息对其数据体进行油藏解释,最终得到波形差异反演数据体,利用波形差异反演数据体进行油气藏的识别、描述和预测,为油气田的中后期开发服务.     

Crude-oil hydrocarbon composition characteristics and oil viscosity prediction in the northern Songliao Basin

Crude oil hydrocarbon composition characteristics and oil viscosity prediction are important bases in petroleum exploration.A total of 54 oil/heavy-oil samples and 17 oil sands were analyzed and quantified using both comprehensive 2D gas chromatography(GC×GC)and comprehensive 2D gas chromatography/time-of-flight mass spectrometry(GC×GC/TOFMS).The results show that crude oil in the West slope is mainly heavy oil and its hydrocarbon composition is characterized overall by paraffinsmono-aromaticsnaphthenesnon-hydrocarbonsdi-aromaticstri-aromaticstetra-aromatics.Aromatics are most abundant and non-hydrocarbons are least abundant,whilst content differences among paraffins,naphthenes,aromatics,and non-hydrocarbons are less than 15%.There are two types of heavy oil,secondary type and mixing type.Biodegradation is the main formation mechanism of heavy oil.Biodegradation levels cover light biodegradation,moderate biodegradation,and severe biodegradation.With increasing biodegradation,paraffin content decreases while contents of aromatics and nonhydrocarbons increase.In contrast,naphthene content increases first and then decreases with increasing biodegradation.In severe biodegradation stage,naphthenes decrease more quickly than aromatics and non-hydrocarbons.This provides a new method for studying oil/heavy-oil biodegradation mechanism and biodegradation resistance of different hydrocarbons at different biodegradation stages.In the Longhupao-Daan terrace and Qijia-Gulong depression,most crude oil is conventional oil.Its composition is dominated by paraffins with the lowest content of aromatics.In some casual oil wells from the Longhupao-Daan terrace,crude oil from Saertu oil reservoirs is moderately biodegraded whereas crude oil from Putaohua oil reservoir is lightly biodegraded.Chemical parameters using saturate hydrocarbons and aromatics are usually not suitable for determining organic type and thermal maturity of biodegraded oil,especially of moderately or severely biodegraded oil,whilst Ts/(Ts+Tm)ratio can be used to determine thermal maturity of both conventional crude oil and heavy oil.     

五台地震科技中心水平摆倾斜仪对应强远震前兆异常特征分析

通过对数字石英水平摆倾斜仪最近几年积累数据的分析,发现在大多数中强远震发生前数小时,倾斜仪东西分量观测数据锯齿状异常、固体潮曲线出现畸变并伴有明显的抖动,这对异常识别和地震预测具有一定的参考价值。     

基于GIS的地震专题图制图中的功能开发

在探索基于GIS的地震专题制图自动化中,开发建立了基于TrueType技术的地震专题符号库,提出了地震制图自动化中线型和面型的解决方法,利用二次开发弥补了MapInfo软件在标注功能上的不足,基本满足了地震专题制图的要求。     

青藏高原北部中强以上地震震兆异常的分级特征研究

通过对青藏高原北部中强以上地震前普遍出现的地震活动异常进行了系统的分析和总结,发现各地震活动前兆异常参数与主震震级有分级特征,其结果对未来青藏高原北部中强以上地震的预测具有一定的实用和参考价值.