Failure time variation derived from R–S relation: the role of the static stress perturbation

In general, earthquake cycle related to earthquake faulting could include four major processes which could be described by (1) fault locking, (2) self-acceleration or nucleation (possible foreshocks), (3) coseismic slip, and (4) post-stress relaxation and afterslip. A sudden static stress change/perturbation in the surrounding crust can advance/delay the fault instability or failure time and modify earthquake rates. Based on a simple one-dimensional spring-slider block model with the combination of rate-and-state-dependent friction relation, in this study, we have approximately derived the simple analytical solutions of clock advance/delay of fault failures caused by a sudden static Coulomb stress change applied in the different temporal evolution periods during an earthquake faulting. The results have been used in the physics-based explanation of delayed characteristic earthquake in Parkfield region, California, in which the next characteristic earthquake of M 6.0 after 1966 occurred in 2004 instead of around 1988 according to its characteristic return period of 22 years. At the same time, the analytical solutions also indicate that the time advance/delay in Coulomb stress change derived by the dislocation model has a certain limitation and fundamental flaw. Furthermore, we discussed the essential difference between rate- and state-variable constitutive (R–S) model and Coulomb stress model used commonly in current earthquake triggering study, and demonstrated that, in fact, the Coulomb stress model could be involved in the R–S model. The results, we have obtained in this study, could be used in the development of time-dependent fault interaction model and the probability calculation related to the time-dependent and renewal earthquake prediction model.     

藏北羌塘高原双湖地表热源强度及地表水热平衡

青藏高原加热及地—气间物质能量交换对我国、东亚乃至全球的天气和气候系统都有着非常重要的作用,受客观条件限制,藏北羌塘高原腹地尚无系统的地—气相互作用过程观测。本文利用中国科学院羌塘双湖极端环境综合观测研究站2011年10月-2012年9月一年的自动气象站观测数据,分析了年内季节和日尺度下双湖地区地面加热场特征,探讨了地表能量平衡及水量平衡特征,结果表明：(1) 双湖地区年内地表热源强度基本为正,年平均热源强度为79.5 W/m²;然而地表热源强度呈现明显的季节和日变化规律,夏季热源强度大于冬季,白天热源强度大于夜间。夏季地表白天为强热源,夜间为弱热源,冬季地表白天为强热源,夜间为冷源。(2) 双湖地区地表能量分配季节变化明显,7、8月份地—气间主要以潜热交换为主,其他月份主要以感热方式进行热量交换,年平均上主要以感热交换为主,年均感热通量和潜热通量分别为55.4 W/m²和24.1 W/m²,波文比为2.3。(3) 双湖地区降水和蒸发皆主要集中在6-9月,年降雨量为332 mm,年蒸发量为312.9 mm,年水量差为19.1 mm,地表水量存在不平衡现象。(4) 双湖地区地表蒸发力很强,年潜在蒸发为1888.2 mm,年均湿润指数为0.17,属典型半干旱气候特征。     

一种基于面积对称模型的土地利用/覆被真伪变化图斑检测方法

不同时相土地利用/覆被数据间的空间配准误差,是产生土地利用/覆被伪变化图斑的一个主要原因。本文从土地利用/覆被原始图斑与其相邻的变化图斑间的空间关系角度,提出了由同一原始图斑产生的土地利用/覆被伪变化图斑的面积对称理论,设计和实现了针对因空间配准误差而导致的土地利用/覆被伪变化图斑自动化检测模型,并以内蒙古自治区通辽市奈曼旗1980年和2000年两期土地利用/覆被图对该模型进行了实验模拟。结果表明：当两期数据的空间配准误差不超过原始影像1个像元时,总体检测精度达到90%以上;误差不超过5个像元时,总体检测精度达到80%以上;误差不超过原始影像10个像元时,总体检测精度达到70％以上。同时,由于运行时唯一需设定的面积对称系数阈值可设为0.2-0.4（默认设为0.3）,该检测模型可适用于由空间配准误差引起的伪变化图斑的自动检查,可满足由于空间配准误差所引起土地利用/覆被伪变化图斑剔除的需求。     

中国西北地区旱涝年南亚高压异常特征

利用1961年1月1日至2010年12月31日NCEP/NCAR再分析数据和站点观测资料,统计分析表明：中国西北区域重旱年典型特征为3、4月南亚高压中心均出现偏西约40°;偏旱年典型特征为3月至4月出现中心位置西移之后东撤,4月至5月出现西移,或4月偏东40°;偏涝年典型特征为7月至8月东西振荡幅度大;西北区域多雨年典型特征为5月中心位置位于孟加拉湾海域,9月明显出现南亚高压东部型,12月位置偏西40°。面积距平最明显的特征是重旱年、偏旱年南亚高压面积偏小,偏涝年、多雨年南亚高压面积偏大,同样也可以看到重旱年4月南亚高亚异常特征十分明显。强度和面积与西北区域降水很好的相关性主要存在于2—4月。     

黄河流域旅游经济的时空分异与R/S分析

以黄河流域为主要案例区,采用标准差、基尼系数、变差系数、区位商等指标,分析了1996~2010年黄河流域旅游经济时空分异的发展演化过程,运用分形理论中的R/S分析方法,预测了黄河流域未来旅游经济差距的发展趋势。结果显示：黄河流域旅游经济的绝对差距是逐年增大,相对差异呈现先减小后增大的趋势;各省发展差异明显。如果在原有条件下继续发展,未来黄河流域旅游经济的差距将继续增大。最后为缩小黄河流域旅游经济差距,促进流域旅游经济持续快速发展提出了对策建议。     

浙江长兴煤山剖面P/T界线附近粘土矿物研究

通过对浙江长兴煤山(D)剖面二叠系-三叠系 (P/T)界线附近地层中的粘土矿物分析,显示粘土矿物的组合及含量的变化同粘土矿物的结晶度没有必然的联系,而同地层组段的变化相一致,粘土矿物组合的变化反映了当时的气候、物源及地理条件的变化;同时,伊利石的结晶度也不具有地层梯度的特征。但是,无论是粘土矿物组合还是伊利石结晶度,在P/T界线附近都发生了明显的变化,表明本区当时海洋酸碱度和温度的剧烈变化,这可能导致了二叠纪末期海洋生物的大规模灭绝。     

Organic Geochemistry of the Early Jurassic Oil Shale from the Shuanghu Area in Northern Tibet and the Early Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event

This paper presents new geological and geochemical data from the Shuanghu area in northern Tibet, which recorded the Early Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event. The stratigraphic succession in the Shuanghu area consists mostly of grey to dark-colored alternating oil shales, marls and mudstones. Ammonite beds are found at the top of the Shuanghu oil shale section, which are principally of early Toarcian age, roughly within the Harplocearasfalciferrum Zone. Therefore,the oil shale strata at Shuanghu can be correlated with early Toarcian black shales distributing extensively in the European epicontinental seas that contain the records of an Oceanic Anoxic Event. Sedimentary organic matter of laminated shale anomalously rich in organic carbon across the Shuanghu area is characterized by high organic carbon contents, ranging from 1.8% to 26.1%. The carbon isotope curve displays the δ^13C values of the kerogen (δ^13Ckerogen) fluctuating from -26.22 to -23.53‰ PDB with a positive excursion close to 2.17‰, which, albeit significantly smaller, may also have been associated with other Early Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) in Europe. The organic atomic C/N ratios range between 6 and 43, and the curve of C/N ratios is consistent with that of the δ^13Ckerogen values. The biological assemblage,characterized by scarcity of benthic organisms and bloom of calcareous nannofossils (coccoliths), reveals high biological productivity in the surface water and an unfavorable environment for the benthic fauna in the bottom water during the Oceanic Anoxic Event. On the basis of organic geochemistry and characteristics of the biological assemblage, this study suggests that the carbon-isotope excursion is caused by the changes of sea level and productivity, and that the black shale deposition, especially oil shales, is related to the bloom and high productivity of coccoliths.     

有孔虫壳体的Mg/Ca比值在古环境研究中的应用

有孔虫壳体的Mg/Ca比值测定是目前估算海水古温度最受重视的方法,适用于低纬和高纬、表层和深层海水古温度的测定。该方法理论误差仅为±1.1℃,考虑到盐度以及海水pH值的影响,其误差为±1.3℃。运用此法推算出的热带海区表层海水温度领先于全球冰盖的变化,是热带过程调控冰期旋回最强有力的证据之一;与氧同位素相结合,还成功地运用于全球冰量的估算,是目前古环境研究中较常用的古温度测试手段。