The Project Siberian High in CMIP5 Models

The Siberian high(SH)experienced a decline from the 1970s to 1990s and a recovery in recent years.The evolution of the SH under global warming is unclear.In this study,41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)climate models are evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the temporal evolution of the SH in the 19th and 20th centuries and the spatial pattern of the SH during 1981–2005.The results show that 12models can capture the temporal evolution of the SH center intensity(SHCI)for 1872–2005.The linear correlation coefficient between the SHCI from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and the simulated SHCI from the multi-model ensemble(MME)of the 12 models is 0.3 on annual and inter-annual scales(above the 99%confidence level).On decadal and multi-decadal time scales,the MME also captures the pronounced reduction(between 1981–2000and 1881–1900 period)and the recovery(during1991–2005)of the SH intensity.Finally,the future evolution of the SH is investigated using the MME of the 12models under the+4.5 and+8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).It is shown that the SHCI,similar to the SHCI in the 20th century,has no significant long-term trend in the 21st century under global warming(RCP8.5 scenario).At the end of 21st century(2081–2100),the SH shows stronger interannual variability than the SH at the end of20th century(1981–2000).The increased interannual variability likely favors the increased interannual variability in winter air temperature over midlatitude Eurasia at the end of 21st century.     

CMIP5西北太平洋气候变率的模拟评估

利用观测海温资料和CMIP5模式模拟结果分析西北太平洋(120°E~120°W,20~60°N)海表温度的气候态和年代际变化特征。结果表明,所选22个模式可以较好地模拟出西北太平洋海表温度的气候特征及其年际、年代际变化特征;模式模拟的海表温度总体标准偏差在黑潮延伸体区域最大;绝大多数模式能模拟出海表温度的第一EOF模态;西北太平洋海表温度具有较明显的年代际振荡现象,13/22的模式模拟的海表温度存在明显的年代际振荡,同时海表温度气候态的模拟偏差对其周期振荡模拟的影响较大,尤其在黑潮延伸体区域。     

Simulation of the equatorially asymmetric mode of the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 models

The tropical Hadley circulation (HC) plays an important role in influencing the climate in the tropics and extra-tropics. The realism of the climatological characteristics, spatial structure, and temporal evolution of the long-term variation of the principal mode of the annual mean HC (i.e., the equatorially asymmetric mode, EAM) was examined in model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results showed that all the models are moderately successful in capturing the HC's climatological features, including the spatial pattern, meridional extent, and intensity, but not the spatial or temporal variation of the EAM. The possible reasons for the poor simulation of the long-term variability of the EAM were explored. None of the models can successfully capture the differences in the warming rate between the tropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH), which is considered to be an important driver for the variation of the AM. Most of the models produce a faster warming in the NH than in the SH, which is the reverse of the observed trend. This leads to a reversed trend in the meridional gradient between the SH and NH, and contributes to the poor simulation of EAM variability. Thus, this aspect of the models should be improved to provide better simulations of the variability of the HC. This study suggests a possible reason for the poor simulation of the HC, which may be helpful for improving the skill of the CMIP5 models in the future.     

Synergistic contribution of precipitation anomalies over northwestern India and the South China Sea to high temperature over the Yangtze River Valley

This study explores the characteristics of high temperature anomalies over eastern China and associated influencing factors using observations and model outputs. Results show that more long-duration (over 8 days) high temperature events occur over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) than over the surrounding regions, and control most of the interannual variation of summer mean temperature in situ. The synergistic effect of summer precipitation over the South China Sea (SCS) region (18°-27°N, 115°-124°E) and the northwestern India and Arabian Sea (IAS) region (18°-27°N, 60°-80°E) contributes more significantly to the variation of summer YRV temperature, relative to the respective SCS or IAS precipitation anomaly. More precipitation (enhanced condensational heating) over the SCS region strengthens the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and simultaneously weakens the westerly trough over the east coast of Asia, and accordingly results in associated high temperature anomalies over the YRV region through stimulating an East Asia-Pacific (EAP) pattern. More precipitation over the IAS region further adjusts the variations of the WPSH and westerly trough, and eventually reinforces high temperature anomalies over the YRV region. Furthermore, the condensational heating related to more IAS precipitation can adjust upper-tropospheric easterly anomalies over the YRV region by exciting a circumglobal teleconnection, inducing cold horizontal temperature advection and related anomalous descent, which is also conducive to the YRV high temperature anomalies. The reproduction of the above association in the model results indicates that the above results can be explained both statistically and dynamically.     

Using SPOT 5 fusion-ready imagery to detect Chinese tamarisk (saltcedar) with mathematical morphological method

Chinese tamarisk (saltcedar) is a deciduous shrub that occurs widely across the Yellow River Delta in China. The spatial structure of Chinese tamarisk is believed to have an influence on the landscape and habitats of rare birds. In this study, first, Chinese tamarisk is detected using Canny edge detector and mathematical morphological operators based on SPOT 5 fusion-ready imagery. Then the numbers, areas, locations, and patch spacing of Chinese tamarisk patches are calculated. The experiments show that the detection accuracy of Chinese tamarisk patches is about 93.4% after the disconnection of connected patches. The distribution orientation of about 70% of the patches is approximately south–north. About 91% of the minimum distances among the patches are between 12.5 and 57.5 m. The rose graph indicates that the main azimuth between patches is north–northwest, and the second is northeast and southeast. The present study indicates that the integrating Canny edge detector with the algorithms for extracting circular and elliptical objects based on mathematical morphology is simple and effective for detecting Chinese tamarisk patches and is easy to identify the spatial structure of Chinese tamarisk patches, which reduces the time and labor for the visual interpretation of Chinese tamarisk patches.     

基于贝叶斯模型的器测、古气候重建与气候模拟数据的融合试验

气象部门馆藏的西部最早的器测气象资料始于20世纪30年代,不能满足建立20世纪以来中国气候变化序列的需求,而古气候重建或气候模拟资料则可以延伸到器测时代以前。为了探讨长序列多源气候资料序列融合方法,采用贝叶斯方法对中国北疆地区8条树轮气温重建资料、器测资料与国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）模式模拟资料进行了融合试验。首先利用器测资料对气温代用资料进行校验与网格重建,并以此作为贝叶斯模型的先验分布,然后,用泰勒图选出了该区域气候模拟效果最佳的几个模式;最后将网格重建和气候模拟序列用贝叶斯模型进行了融合试验。结果表明,贝叶斯融合模型能有效提取各种数据来源的有用信息进行融合,融合结果的长期变化（线性）趋势更接近器测气候序列,并在一定程度上提高了序列的精度,减小了结果的不确定性;并且,融合结果能够纠正先验分布及气候模拟数据的明显偏差,为长年代气候序列重建提供了一个可行的思路。      

Recent discoveries of supersoft X‐ray sources in M 31

Classical novae (CNe) have recently been reported to represent the major class of supersoft X‐ray sources (SSSs) in the central area of our neighbouring galaxy M 31. This paper presents a review of results from recent X‐ray observations of M 31 with XMM‐Newton and Chandra. We carried out a dedicated optical and X‐ray monitoring program of CNe and SSSs in the central area ofM 31. We discovered the first SSSs in M 31 globular clusters (GCs) and their connection to the very first discovered CN in a M 31 GC. This result may have an impact on the CN rate in GCs. Furthermore, in our optical and X‐ray monitoring data we discovered the CN M3 1N 2007‐11a, which shows a very short SSS phase of 29–52 days. Short SSS states (durations ≤ 100 days) of CNe indicate massive white dwarfs (WDs) that are candidate progenitors of supernovae type Ia. In the case of M31N 2007‐11a, the optical and X‐ray light curves suggest a binary containing a WD with M_WD > 1.0 M_⊙. Finally, we present the discovery of the SSS counterpart of the CN M31N 2006‐04a. The X‐ray light curve of M31N 2006‐04a shows short‐time variability, which might indicate an orbital period of about 2 hours (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

汶川震区北川县城泥石流源地特征的遥感动态分析

汶川地震导致山地斜坡积累了大量碎屑物质,在降雨作用下极易成为泥石流源地。震后的2008年9月24日一场暴雨导致北川县境内72条沟同时暴发泥石流。本文选择了汶川地震高烈度区的北川县城8条泥石流沟流域为研究区,基于遥感手段开展了震后和相继暴雨后的泥石流源地变化特征。强震后泥石流流域的重要变化是在沟谷内诱发了大量滑坡。通过开展遥感解译和野外调查,重点分析了研究区泥石流源地的滑坡活动。将512汶川地震后的2008年5月18日获取的航空图像与924暴雨后获取的2008年10月14日SPOT图像相比较,发现泥石流源地的地震滑坡面积由1537104m2增加到暴雨后的1912104m2,即汶川高烈度区一场暴雨过程新增滑坡面积达244%。根据SPOT图像解译,暴雨后泥石流沟床中的松散堆积物增大到97104m2。上述研究结果表明汶川震区在强降雨条件下发生泥石流的敏感性特别高。     

汶川8.0级大地震震源机制与构造运动特征

根据地震震源机制、断层参数结果,结合GPS测定的同震位移场与构造研究的最新结果,综合分析研究了2008年汶川8级大地震汶川地震发生的地震活动背景、震源应力场、断层构造运动特征及其动力学机制。地震活动性分析研究结果表明,2008年汶川8级大地震是在青藏高原与其周边地域构造运动剧烈,2001年起始的地震活动高潮期的背景下发生的。其长达300km的地震震源断层填补了青藏高原东缘1900年以来存在的8级地震活动的空区。震源机制与区域应力场特征及其动力学机制研究表明,汶川8级地震震源处于南北地震带中南段东部,青藏高原东向扩张与四川盆地的抵抗是该区构造运动的主要特征。汶川地震及其强余震是在一个稳定的、主压应力P轴以北西西-东南东方向为主的震源应力场控制下发生的。说明汶川地震震源区域主要受到四川盆地、华南块体区域应力场的控制并发震的。龙门山断裂带西侧的青藏高原相对于四川盆地发生的东向上升;而东侧的四川盆地相对于青藏高原发生的西向下降构造运动是2008年汶川8级地震发生的主要地震成因即地震发生机制。     

勘察设计企业并购模式的选择

随着我国社会主义市场经济体制改革的不断深化,加入WTO后与国际市场融入度的不断加强,企业生存与发展的环境日益呈现出市场一体化、需求多元化、竞争激烈化的特征,为了拓展企业的业务范围、扩大企业规模以及提高市场的竞争实力以应对日益激烈的市场竞争,勘察设计企业面对严峻的市场和竞争环境,结合企业自身的资源、环境和并购目的选择合适的并购模式,通过借助并购等资本运营手段,将企业做大做强,增强其综合实力,有效参与全球竞争。