Damage localization of marine risers using time series of vibration signals

Based on dynamic response signals a damage detection algorithm is developed for marine risers. Damage detection methods based on numerous modal properties have encountered issues in the researches in offshore oil community. For example, significant increase in structure mass due to marine plant/animal growth and changes in modal properties by equipment noise are not the result of damage for riser structures. In an attempt to eliminate the need to determine modal parameters, a data-based method is developed. The implementation of the method requires that vibration data are first standardized to remove the influence of different loading conditions and the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is used to fit vibration response signals. In addition, a damage feature factor is introduced based on the autoregressive (AR) parameters. After that, the Euclidean distance between ARMA models is subtracted as a damage indicator for damage detection and localization and a top tensioned riser simulation model with different damage scenarios is analyzed using the proposed method with dynamic acceleration responses of a marine riser as sensor data. Finally, the influence of measured noise is analyzed. According to the damage localization results, the proposed method provides accurate damage locations of risers and is robust to overcome noise effect.     

截齿破岩机制及截线间距优化试验研究

根据截齿侵入岩石的断裂特征和相关试验数据,分析了破岩机制及不同截线间距对破岩效果的影响。在单刀旋转截割试验平台上,以不同切削深度和截线间距进行组合试验,并结合比能耗、粗度指数及截割载荷3个评价指标,对截线间距进行优化,研究截割该类型砂岩时截线间距与切削深度的最佳比值。试验结果表明,岩石在单齿旋转截割作用下的破碎过程大致可以分为初始压碎区细粒岩屑生成、密实核形成并储能、各向裂纹的扩展与连通、断裂体崩落、二次压碎区细粒岩屑生成5个阶段,且岩屑的断裂是以拉伸为主并伴随着挤压和剪切的共同作用;在最佳截割条件下,粗度指数较高,岩屑成块率增加,且比能耗低。通过分析岩石破碎过程及对截线间距的优化,可为掘进机破岩机制研究及截齿布置提供参考。     

紫外线辐射强度预报模型研究

以陈万隆的到达地面的紫外辐射的参数化方案、Frederick模式中的高度修正方程和NWS的云量修正方程为基础。建立了一个到达地面紫外总辐射的预测模型。进行紫外线辐射强度预报。结果表明：模型能很好地反映出晴天紫外线辐射强度的变化趋势及其规律。少云、多云和阴天由于天空状况复杂，预报误差相对较大。但基本上能反映出紫外线辐射强度的变化情况。模型考虑因子较全面，可以用于城市紫外线辐射强度预报。     

青藏高原积雪异常与贵州东、西部旱、寒灾害关系的初步分析

利用 195 8— 1992年的有关资料 ,对青藏高原冬、春季积雪异常与贵州春、夏季不同区域干旱和低温灾害的强弱关系进行了统计分析。结果发现 :青藏高原冬、春季积雪异常与贵州春、夏季不同区域干旱和低温灾害的强弱间存在明显的相关关系 ,高原异常多雪年贵州西部 4月春旱偏重 ;东部夏旱偏重 ,春季低温灾害偏轻。反之 ,高原异常少雪年贵州西部春旱和东部夏旱都偏轻 ,春季低温灾害偏重。     

获取与处理类测绘标准的重组规划探讨

获取与处理类测量规范是测绘标准体系的核心部分,然而,这些测量规范存在着内容重复、引用复杂、系统性差等缺点,因此,建议将现行的获取与处理类测量规范进行重组。通过分析,将该类测量规范规划为两部分：基础测量规范与专业测量规范,重组后的测量规范系统性强、引用简单、索引明确,对指导测绘生产具有重要意义。     

山东省龙卷风发生的气候特征

根据藤田-皮尔森强度分类法对1950年～2000年山东省出现的351次龙卷风进行分类，其中F0级61次，F1级256次，F2级34次。山东半岛、鲁中、鲁南出现次数较多，鲁西北较少。1950～1972年发生次数明显高于1973～2000年。龙卷风发生存在明显的季节变化，夏季发生较多。龙卷风主要发生于午后至傍晚，多数龙卷风仅能维持几分到十几分钟。     

近50年河南降水变化对水资源的影响

利用河南32个代表站1951～2002年降水量资料，分析了20世纪50年代以来全省年降水资源和水资源的变化趋势以及对旱涝灾害的影响。结果表明，自20世纪80年代中期以来，河南已进入一个降水量偏少时期，干旱化程度加重，水资源短缺已成为影响工农业生产和国民经济发展的主要因素。     

三种干旱指数在山西省干旱分析中的比较

利用1957-2003年山西省30个测站逐月、逐年降水量、平均气温资料、降水距平百分率、帕尔默指数和Z指数等三种干旱指数的计算方法和判定标准,分别在山西省北部、中部、南部和全省的旱涝状况进行判定的基础上,对三种干旱指数的判定结果进行了比较和相关分析。结果表明：（1）从旱涝年发生频次来看,降水距平百分率判别干旱的趋势可信...     

CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS: APPLICATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS

Considering the feature of tropical cyclones (TCs) that strong positive vorticity exists in the lower layers of troposphere, this study proposed to use vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function to find the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which was largely different from those previous studies using total energy of perturbed forecast variables. The CNOP was obtained by an ensemble-based approach. All of the sensitive areas determined by CNOP with vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function for the three cases were located over the TC core region and its vicinity. The impact of the CNOP-based adaptive observations on TC forecasts was evaluated with three cases via observational system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Results showed obvious improvements in TC intensity or track forecasts due to the CNOP-based adaptive observations, which were related to the main error source of the verification area, i.e., intensity error or location error.     

Estimating severity of liquefaction-induced damage near foundation

An empirical procedure for estimating the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations of existing buildings is established. The procedure is based on an examination of 30 case histories from recent earthquakes. The data for these case histories consist of observations of the damage that resulted from liquefaction, and the subsurface soil conditions as revealed by cone penetration tests. These field observations are used to classify these cases into one of three damaging effect categories, ‘no damage’, ‘minor to moderate damage’, and ‘major damage’. The potential for liquefaction-induced ground failure at each site is calculated and expressed as the probability of ground failure. The relationship between the probability of ground failure and the damage class is established, which allows for the evaluation of the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations. The procedure presented herein represents a significant attempt to address the issue of liquefaction effect. Caution must be exercised, however, when using the proposed model and procedure for estimating liquefaction damage severity, because they are developed based on limited number of case histories.