影响广西的孟湾风暴

统计分析了1973年以来影响广西的孟湾风暴天气气候情况及环流特征,总结出该类天气演变的一般规律及预报着眼点,为提高天气预报准确率提供有益参考。     

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION

In order to consider both the deterministic and the stochastic property of atmospheric motion simul-taneously,in this paper,the weather prediction is proposed as the problem of the evolution of meteorologicalfield.The historical viewpoint of atmospheric motion is emphasized here.Based on time series analysis te-chnique,a stochastic-dynamical model with multiple initial fields is derived.Thus,weather forecasting is sum-meal up as a problem of solving a set of stochastic difference equations.For the barotropic atmosphere,thenumerical solutions of the equations are obtained by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions(EOF),and examples of medium-range weather prediction are given here.Meanwhile,selecting the order oftime series,i.e.,determining the number of initial fields properly,is also discussed.     

兰州市人体舒适度预报系统开发研制

利用兰州市197l-2000年气象资料，统计分析各气象要素的变化规律，并探讨其对人体舒适度的影响。在国内外人体实验和有关研究方法基础上，结合本地特殊的气候状况，建立了与人体舒适度有关的8个指数的计算方法和相应的预报等级，并在预报实践中进行了效果检验和参数订正，可以满足兰州市气象指数预报业务的需要。     

华北地区区域性暴雨综合预报技术

华北地区区域性暴雨综合预报技术是以ＨＬＡＦＳ数值降水预报产品为基础，以物理量诊断为主要依据，综合使用上卫星云图，常规气象资料和国内外数值预报产品等众多信息逐步订正，以人机结合方式制作华北地区区域性暴雨预报的技术。实验表明，该技术对华北暴雨有较好的判断和预报能力，其主要特点是；基本上模拟预报员的预报思维和业务流程制作暴雨预报１，系统分段执行，透明度大，便于改进，也有利于预报员了解暴发生发展的机理和规     

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature in South Korea using dynamic linear models

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from 00 h out to 45 h in South Korea(38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.     

The possible influences of the increasing anthropogenic emissions in India on tropospheric ozone and OH

A 3-D chemical transport model (OSLO CTM2) is used to investigate the influences of the increasing anthropogenic emission in India. The model is capable of reproducing the observational results of the INDOEX experiment and the measurements in summer over India well. The model results show that when NOx and CO emissions in India are doubled, ozone concentration increases, and global average OH decreases a little. Under the effects of the Indian summer monsoon, NOx and CO in India are efficiently transported into the middle and upper troposphere by the upward current and the convective activities so that the NOx, CO, and ozone in the middle and upper troposphere significantly increase with the increasing NOx and CO emissions. These increases extensively influence a part of Asia, Africa, and Europe, and persist from June to September.     

基于高速公路气象监测数据分析的浓雾预报指标

利用京秦高速公路沿线交通气象监测站实况资料,通过对84个站次的浓雾雾生和雾消各气象要素变化特征进行分析,归纳出高速公路沿线浓雾和强浓雾天气雾生雾消的预报指标。爆发性强浓雾期间能见度少波动,在能见度爆发下降前,温度下降过程中的小幅上升对能见度突然下降有很好的指示作用;相对湿度在能见度爆发下降前1 h内达到80%以上。一般性强浓雾大多数出现在温度波动之后继续直线下降期间;在500 m浓雾出现15 h之前空气相对湿度达90%以上,能见度达50 m之前相对湿度基本达饱和状态。浓雾消散主要有两个方面,因冷空气造成的雾消,预报应着眼于冷空气前锋影响高速公路所在区域的时间;而由辐射升温造成的雾消,预报应着眼于对天空状况和升温速度的判断。     

2014年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

对2014年9—11月T639、ECMWF（文中简称EC）及日本（文中简称JP）数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明：3个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变及850 hPa温度转折性变化具有较好的中期预报性能,但对北方的温度预报偏差明显大于南方。对于副热带高压脊线的位置,T639和EC模式都有较好的预报能力,EC模式比T639模式偏差小。EC模式对于1416号台风凤凰的路径及强度预报效果与零场接近,T639和JP模式预报与实况相差较大。T639和EC模式对有利雾霾发生的静稳天气形势均有较好的中期预报能力,但对驱散雾霾的冷空气,EC模式预报与零场更加一致。     

复杂地形风场的精细数值模拟

风能是一种重要气候资源,随着我国风电规模的迅速增大,发展风能资源评估系统和风功率预测系统已成为一项重要的研究内容。国内外对复杂地形风场结构的数值模拟有大量研究,随着计算机能力增强,以往用于空气动力学精细流场计算的计算流体力学(Computational Fluid Dynamics,CFD)模式越来越多地在气象领域得到应用,人们开始研究用中尺度预报模式和CFD模式结合进行复杂地形风场的数值模拟。本文的耦合模式系统采用中尺度气象模式(WRF),通过嵌套网格到内层尺度(一般是几公里),然后通过耦合CFD模式Fluent软件获得高分辨率(水平30~100 m,垂直150 m高度以下10 m)的风速分布资料,得到精细化的风场信息。通过对鄱阳湖北部区域和云南杨梅山复杂地形的风场模拟,提供了风能评估和预报的一种可行的方法。