Water transport from the North-east Irish Sea to western Scottish coastal waters: Further observations from time-trend matching of Sellafield radiocaesium

Radiocaesium isotopes, discharged into the North-east Irish Sea from the Sellafield (formerly Windscale) nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Cumbria, have been employed as flow monitors to update and extend the record of coastal water movement from the Irish Sea to the Clyde Sea area and, further north, to Loch Etive. The temporal trends in radiocaesium levels have been used to determine the extent of water mixing en route and to define mean advection rates. Flow conditions from the Irish Sea have changed considerably since the mid-1970s, the residence time of northern Irish Sea waters being ～12 months during 1978–1980 inclusive. Average transport times of four and six months are estimated for the Sellafield to Clyde and Sellafield to Etive transects respectively. Sellafield ¹³⁷Cs levels in seawater were diluted by factors of 27 and 50 respectively during current movement to the Clyde and Etive areas. The decrease in salinity-corrected ¹³⁷Cs concentrations between the Clyde and Etive suggests that dilution by Atlantic water occurs, the latter mainly entering the Firth of Lorne from the west. The majority (～94%) of the radiocaesium supply to Loch Etive enters the Firth of Lorne via the portion of the coastal current circulating west of Islay, only ～6% arriving via the Sound of Jura.     

南海波高熵和风速熵

根据风速的统计分布，给出了有因次风速熵和无因次风速熵的定义及其计算方法，使用ＧＥＯＳＡＴ高度计１９８６年１１月－１９８９年２月的有效波高和风速的资料，计算，分析了南海海域上的波高熵，风速熵，给出它们的时间变化特征和空间变化特征，并对不同随机量的无因次熵，即随机度进行了比较。     

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

Assessment of sand encroachment in Kuwait using GIS

Assessment of sand encroachment in Kuwait using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology has been formulated as a Multi-Criteria Decision Making problem. The Delphi method and Analytical Hierarchy Process were adopted as evaluating techniques, in which experts’ judgments were analyzed for objectively estimating and weighting control factors. Seven triggering factors, depicted in the form of maps, were identified and ordered according to their priority. These factors are (1) wind energy; (2) surface sediment; (3) vegetation density; (4) land use; (5) drainage density; (6) topographic change and (7) vegetation type. The factor maps were digitized, converted to raster data and overlaid to determine their possible spatial relationships. Applying a susceptibility model, a map of sand encroachment susceptibility in Kuwait was developed. The map showed that the areas of very high and high sand encroachment susceptibility are located within the main corridor of sand pathway that coincides with the northwesterly dominant wind direction.     

用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。     

基于门限回归的气温对光伏发电量的影响分析

光伏发电与气象要素密切相关,正确认识气象因子对于光伏发电量及其发电效率的影响是进行发电量预测和维持光伏电站稳定运行的重要基础。采用江苏省淮安市某小型光伏电站2018—2020年发电量数据、淮安市太阳辐射观测站数据及光伏电站附近气象站观测数据,分析气温、太阳总辐射等气象因子对光伏发电量的影响。相关性分析结果表明,光伏发电量与太阳总辐射呈极强的正相关,基本随太阳总辐射的变化而变化;与气温、降水分别呈弱的正相关和弱的负相关;与风速几乎无相关。然而,灰色关联度分析显示,光伏发电量还与气温呈现出较高的灰色关联度。进一步分析表明,光伏发电量随太阳总辐射的变化受到气温的明显调制,不同气温下光伏发电效率不同。门限回归分析显示,当气温达到一定阈值时光伏发电效率会出现下降,具体表现为：当气温达到12.1 ℃,光伏发电效率下降26.7%;当气温超过22.8 ℃,光伏发电效率下降43.7%。使用这两个温度阈值建立的TR（Threshold Regression）模型的准确率要比线性回归模型提高约10%。     

塔河油田3区石炭系超深薄层碎屑岩储层预测研究

针对塔河油田3区石炭系卡拉沙依组地震数据很难识别薄砂体的问题,对比分析了采用地震资料提频处理、分频处理、储层高分辨率敏感参数反演等不同手段得到的储层预测结果,筛选出高分辨率储层敏感参数反演作为卡拉沙依组砂泥岩段储层主要预测手段。通过探讨砂泥岩对声波时差的响应,以及对比分析自然电位、自然伽马以及补偿中子孔隙度与声波时差的关系,确定自然电位与声波时差的相关性最好,由此选取自然电位作为最佳电性敏感参数参与高分辨率敏感参数反演预测。从井点、剖面、平面等方面检验和评价高分辨率储层预测成果,结果表明其反演预测效果较好,符合塔河油田3区石炭系的储层预测要求,实现了对石炭系主力砂体空间展布的解释与描述,建立了塔河油田3区石炭系卡拉沙依组储层模型。     

用X射线荧光光谱法测定Cl、S等31个元素

采用硼酸镶边垫底的粉末样品压片制样,用ARL ADVANT′XP＋型X射线荧光光谱仪对土壤和水系沉积物样品中Na、Mg、Al、Si、P、S、Cl等31个组分进行测定。重点研究了Cl和S等元素的测定条件、痕量元素的背景选择和谱线重叠校正问题。使用经验系数法和康普敦散射作内标校正基体效应。经标准物质校验,结果与标准值吻合。方法的检出限、精密度和准确度能满足多目标地球化学调查样品的分析要求。     

论地震数值预报——关于我国地震预报研究发展战略的思考

随着中国工业化和社会现代化进程的加快 ,中国城市化进程必将进一步加速。如何减轻地震灾害的问题正变得日益严峻。尽管地震预测是一个举世公认的国际性科学难题 ,但在强化各种减轻地震灾害措施的同时 ,仍须大力推进地震预测研究。为此 ,需要打破长期徘徊在以地震前兆异常监测为基础的经验性预测局面 ,把注意力尽快转向研究以动力学为基础的数值预报。以GPS为代表的空间对地观测技术 ,岩石圈巨型高分辨率宽频带流动地震台阵观测技术以及数值模拟技术已经为地震数值预报研究提供了前所未有的技术基础。以地震数值预报为目标的GPS阵列地壳形变连续观测 ,高分辨率地壳上地幔结构探测 ,地壳动力学 ,地震孕育和破裂过程的理论、模拟试验和实际观测 ,数据同化和计算软件的开发应成为今后研究的重点。现在的问题是 ,需要积极借助数值天气预报的经验 ,强化多学科 ,多部门的组织协调 ,尽早在有条件的地区开展地震动力学数值预报的科学试验。地震数值预报研究必将极大地促进中国地震科学基础研究和地震预报的进一步发展。