Summary. A first-order form of the Euler's equations for rays in an ellipsoidal model of the Earth is obtained. The conditions affecting the velocity law for a monotonic increase, with respect to the arc length, in the angular distance to the epicentre, and in the angle of incidence, are the same in the ellipsoidal and spherical models. It is therefore possible to trace rays and to compute travel times directly in an ellipsoidal earth as in the spherical model. Thus comparison with the rays of the same coordinates in a spherical earth provides an estimate of the various deviations of these rays due to the Earth's flattening, and the corresponding travel-time differences, for mantle P -waves and for shallow earthquakes. All these deviations are functions both of the latitude and of the epicentral distance. The difference in the distance to the Earth's centre at points with the same geocentric latitude on rays in the ellipsoidal and in the spherical model may reach several kilometres. Directly related to the deformation of the isovelocity surfaces, this difference is the only cause of significant perturbation in travel times. Other differences, such as that corresponding to the ray torsion, are of the first order in ellipticity, and may exceed 1 km. They induce only small differences in travel time, less than 0.01s. Thus, we show that the ellipticity correction obtained by Jeffreys (1935) and Bullen (1937) by a perturbational method can be recovered by a direct evaluation of the travel times in an ellipsoidal model of the Earth. Moreover, as stated by Dziewonski & Gilbert (1976), we verify the non-dependence of this correction on the choice of the velocity law. 相似文献
The purpose of this study is to assess the susceptibility of landslides in parts of Western Ghats, Kerala, India, using a
geographical information system (GIS). Landslide inventory of the area was made by detailed field surveys and the analysis
of the topographical maps. The landslide triggering factors are considered to be slope angle, slope aspect, slope curvature,
slope length, distance from drainage, distance from lineaments, lithology, land use and geomorphology. ArcGIS version 8.3
was used to manipulate and analyse all the collected data. Probabilistic-likelihood ratio was used to create a landslide susceptibility
map for the study area. The result was validated using the Area under Curve (AUC) method and temporal data of landslide occurrences.
The validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide locations.
As the result, the success rate of the model was (84.46%) and the prediction rate of the model was (82.38%) shows high prediction
accuracy. In the reclassified final landslide susceptibility zone map, 5.68% of the total area is classified as critical in
nature. The landslide susceptibility map thus produced can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to land
cover planning. 相似文献
The Hong’an area (western Dabie Mountains) is the westernmost terrane in the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu orogen that preserves UHP
eclogites. The ages of the UHP metamorphism have not been well constrained, and thus hinder our understanding of the tectonic
evolution of this area. LA-ICPMS U–Pb age, trace element and Hf isotope compositions of zircons of a granitic gneiss and an
eclogite from the Xinxian UHP unit in the Hong’an area were analyzed to constrain the age of the UHP metamorphism. Most zircons
are unzoned or show sector zoning. They have low trace element concentrations, without significant negative Eu anomalies.
These metamorphic zircons can be further subdivided into two groups according to their U–Pb ages, and trace element and Lu–Hf
isotope compositions. One group with an average age of 239 ± 2 Ma show relatively high and variable HREE contents (527 ≥ LuN ≥ 14) and 176Lu/177Hf ratios (0.00008–0.000931), indicating their growth prior to a great deal of garnet growth in the late stage of continental
subduction. The other group yields an average age of 227 ± 2 Ma, and shows consistent low HREE contents and 176Lu/177Hf ratios, suggesting their growth with concurrent garnet crystallization and/or recrystallization. These two groups of age
are taken as recording the time of prograde HP to UHP and retrograde UHP–HP stages, respectively. A few cores have high Th/U
ratios, high trace element contents, and a clear negative Eu anomaly. These features support a magmatic origin of these zircon
cores. The upper intercept ages of 771 ± 86 and 752 ± 70 Ma for the granitic gneiss and eclogite, respectively, indicate that
their protoliths probably formed as a bimodal suite in rifting zones in the northern margin of the Yangtze Block. Young Hf
model ages (TDM1) of magmatic cores indicate juvenile (mantle-derived) materials were involved in their protolith formation.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
Deep dissolution affects great part of soluble rocks (e.g. gypsum and anhydrite) of the Western Italian Alps. The related superficial phenomena (sinkholes, gravity-induced processes and a local worsening of geomechanical rock properties) are not limited to typical karsts landscape and cause slope instability also affecting populated sites and infrastructures. The paper aims to describe general characteristic of dissolution phenomena, to interpret their conditioning factors and evolutionary stages and to assess possible hazards due to their superficial effects.The search for evidences of deep dissolution leads to the selection of representative sites in the central part of the Western Italian Alps (Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta Region). Detailed geological and geomorphological studies have been used to classify the selected sites by type, size and variable state of activity. Very different evolutionary stages of dissolution phenomena have been interpreted by comparison of case-studies: some are early “embryonic”; others are more evolved, up to typical sinkholes, or even remodelled by other phenomena. Some cases show an extreme complexity in the interactions between corrosion phenomena and other geomorphic processes: slope deformations, from one side, and karst, fluvial and glacial phenomena, to the other. A wide range of movement rates on slope instabilities induced by deep dissolution have been estimated by topographic and geomorphic data. Geochemical data on removed rocks by dissolution indicate 0.4 mm/year values for local subsidence. Historical and technical data indicate low frequency of major dissolution-induced collapses, but highlight widespread damages to tunnels, roads and buildings, especially along slopes. 相似文献