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61.
利用中国国家级地面气象站逐时降水资料,采用地理加权回归(Geographically Weighted Regression,GWR)模型系统分析了中国中东部暖季降水与海拔高度的关系,并将二者关系作为一种客观标准,评估了ECMWF-IFS模式对2017年暖季降水的预报能力。主要结论如下:(1)总体来看,中国中东部降水频率(强度)随海拔高度升高而增加(减小),二者在不同地区的贡献程度不同导致降水量与海拔高度关系的区域差异显著。(2)通过对比午后短时和夜间长时降水事件与海拔高度关系的差异,发现午后短时降水事件的降水量主要随海拔高度升高而增加,且以降水频率与海拔高度关系的贡献为主。而夜间长时降水事件的降水量与海拔高度关系的区域一致性较差。相较于午后短时降水事件,夜间长时降水事件中有更多站点表现出降水量随海拔高度升高而减小的特征,在大地形周边陡峭地形处的站点所表现出的此种差异较东部孤立地形处更加显著。(3)根据ECMWF-IFS模式的评估结果,模式能够较好地刻画出中国中东部2017年暖季降水气候态的空间分布特征,且与观测具有较大的空间相关系数。但从降水与海拔高度关系来看,观测与模式的空间相关性偏弱。此外,模式能够表现出降水强度(频率)主要随海拔高度升高而减小(增加)的特征,但绝大多数站点在模式中的降水强度(频率)与海拔高度的负(正)回归关系要弱(强)于观测结果。 相似文献
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Lateral variation in Moho depth around the southern Tanlu fault zone and its adjacent area 下载免费PDF全文
We estimated Moho depth beneath the southern Tanlu fault zone and its adjacent area using common-conversion-point(CCP)stacking of receiver fun-ctions,which were computed from teleseismic records of the CEArray.Our estimated Moho depth matches well with 2-D profiles derived from active-source deep seismic reflection surveys,suggesting that the calculated the Moho depth map is likely accurate beyond the 2-D profiles.Overall,the estimated Moho depth map showed a high spatial correlation with tectonic provinces,i.e.,Moho topographic boundaries are in good agreement with geological boundaries.Beneath the Dabie orogenic belt and the mountainous areas in southern Anhui Province,the Moho lies relatively deep,and there is an obvious difference in Moho depth between the two sides of this segment of the Tanlu fault.We further selected four depth profiles with dense instrumentation to show Moho depth changes across different tectonic blocks in the study area.We saw two step-like changes in Moho depth beneath the Xiangfan-Guangji and Gushi-Feizhong,which run parallel along the WNW-ESE direction and delineate the southern and northern bounds of the northern Dabie orogenic belt,which is likely the suture zone between the North China Block and South China Block.Crust beneath the northeast corner of the study area is significantly thinner than other areas,which is consistent with the crustal detachment model proposed for suturing between the North and South China blocks in the region east to the Tanlu fault. 相似文献
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利用地震噪声准实时监测短周期面波波速变化 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
依据由噪声信号提取面波格林函数的原理,利用福建省地震台网25个宽频带台站2007年7月2日—8月29日的脉动观测资料,得到了瑞雷波群速度在福建地区的分布,并将该结果作为下一步相对变化动态成像的背景速度分布.分布结果表明,福建地区周期为3—5s的瑞雷波群速度大致在2.9—3.1km/s之间,平均速度为3.0km/s,瑞雷波群速度分布呈北高南低的现象,这与福建地区北部多山、南部多平原盆地的地理环境有很好的吻合.而且,该群速度分布图在漳州盆地地区表现出一个非常明显的低速,这主要是因为受到盆地沉积层的影响.通过滑动窗(窗长为20d,步长1d)技术得到了观测区内周期约为3-5s的瑞雷波波速分布变化的连续图像;再利用扣除背景影响的技术,得到了2007年8月14日—2008年7月1日福建地区瑞雷波波速的相对变化时空动态图像.通过分析相对变化时空动态图像与该时间范围内发生的地震的对应关系,表明福建地区瑞雷波波速在多次网内中等强度的地震或震群(ML>3.0)中均表现出震前波速升高,震后下降恢复的变化趋势.初步分析认为,这可能与震前整个地区受到的应力增大震后应力得到释放所导致的介质变化有关. 相似文献
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测井曲线旋回分析在碳酸盐岩层序地层研究中的应用* 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:2
在碳酸盐岩台地沉积层序的研究中,通过旋回计数和厚度测量,采用费希尔图解法解析高频米级旋回或副层序的叠置形式和空间结构,进而标定三级沉积层序的界面,是目前普遍采用的一个方法。但是,这一方法目前主要用于露头层序地层学研究,而在地下油气勘探区受到极大的限制。文中提出了一种新的计算方法,它可以根据测井资料求取任一地层段沉积旋回的个数和厚度。根据数值模拟,详细讨论了海平面变化周期和幅度与沉降速率、沉积速率的相关关系,提出高频沉积旋回的分布模式和叠加样式可以指示低频海平面变化的轨迹,这为划分三级沉积层序、标定层序界面提供了理论依据。最后,以川西北地区中三叠统雷口坡组为例,说明了应用自然伽马测井资料进行数据处理的流程和步骤,以及根据旋回厚度累积偏差曲线标定层序界面的位置、识别旋回谱系标志。 相似文献
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Dimensions and architecture of late Pleistocene submarine lobes off the northern margin of East Corsica 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Sandy lobe deposits on submarine fans are sensitive recorders of the types of sediment gravity flows supplied to a basin and are economically important as hydrocarbon reservoirs. This study investigates the causes of variability in 20 lobes in small late Pleistocene submarine fans off East Corsica. These lobes were imaged using ultra‐high resolution boomer seismic profiles (<1 m vertical resolution) and sediment type was ground truthed using piston cores published in previous studies. Repeated crossings of the same depositional bodies were used to measure spatial changes in their dimensions and architecture. Most lobes increase abruptly down‐slope to a peak thickness of 8 to 42 m, beyond which they show a progressive, typically more gradual, decrease in thickness until they thin to below seismic resolution or pass into draping facies of the basin plain. Lobe areas range from 3 to 70 km2 and total lengths from 2 to 14 km, with the locus of maximum sediment accumulation from 3 to 28 km from the shelf‐break. Based on their location, dimensions, internal architecture and nature of the feeder channel, the lobes are divided into two end‐member types. The first are small depositional bodies located in proximal settings, clustered near the toe‐of‐slope and fed by slope gullies or erosive channels lacking or with poorly developed levées (referred to as ‘proximal isolated lobes’). The second are larger architecturally more complex depositional bodies deposited in more distal settings, outboard more stable and longer‐lived levéed fan valleys (referred to as ‘composite mid‐fan lobes’). Hybrid lobe types are also observed. At least three hierarchical levels of compensation stacking are recognized. Individual beds and bed‐sets stack to form lobe‐elements; lobe‐elements stack to form composite lobes; and composite lobes stack to form lobe complexes. Differences in the size, shape and architectural complexity of lobe deposits reflect several inter‐related factors including: (i) flow properties (volume, duration, grain‐size, concentration and velocity); (ii) the number and frequency of flows, and their degree of variation through time; (iii) gradient change and sea floor morphology at the mouth of the feeder conduit; (iv) lobe lifespan prior to avulsion or abandonment; and (v) feeder channel geometry and stability. In general, lobes outboard stable fan valleys that are connected to shelf‐incised canyons are wider, longer and thicker, accumulate in more basinal locations and are architecturally more complex. 相似文献
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渐进制度变迁模式下中国城市转型测度的空间分异 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
以中国286个地级及以上行政单元为研究对象,基于2003~2013年的劳动力、企业等制度指标,采用空间插值等方法,探讨了中国城市制度转型水平及其效应机制。研究表明:① 空间上,制度转型结果及其效应总体上在2003~2013年都表现为从东部沿海向内陆地区的梯度衰减模式。时间上,制度转型及其引发的效应整体上表现为逐步强化,其中,制度转型效应表现为由2003年的“零星分布”向2008年“线状蔓延”进而向2013年“面状拓展”的空间演化特征。② 以城市群为核心的相关区域,其制度转型结果与效应大致呈现为圈层结构模式。③ 中西部地区(除成渝城市群外)的制度转型结果及其效应高值中心大都为单个城市。④ 制度转型对城市转型效应影响显著,且随着时间的推移明显增强。 相似文献
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A devastating flood occurred in southern Alberta on June 19, 2013, from greater than normal snowfalls in the Rocky Mountains and excess precipitation during the early spring that left soils saturated and unable to absorb any additional precipitation. This flood was Canada's most costly natural disaster, with five to six billion Canadian dollars in damages. The first objective of this study was to determine if the flood caused an increase in private drinking water well contamination in the Calgary Health Zone by comparing contamination rates to previous years. The second objective was to determine which environmental factors were associated with contamination during this flood event. Test results of total coliforms (TC) and Escherichia coli (EC) of private water wells were used to determine contamination. A geographically weighted Poisson regression analysis suggested that TC contamination was not associated with this flood. The EC contamination is positively associated with floodways, flood fringe, farms, and negatively associated with intermittent water (sloughs). These results suggest that for the 2013 flood, individual well characteristics are more important than surrounding geographic features. Thus, it is recommended that homeowners who live in a high-risk area ensure their wells are properly maintained to reduce risk of water well contamination. 相似文献