河南省火灾影响因素的空间分析

科学揭示火灾及其影响因素间的空间关系可为防火管理提供决策支持和有益启示。以往研究多在“空间平稳”的框架下进行火灾影响因素分析,但火灾和其可量化的影响因素往往自身均表现为“空间异质”,基于非空间的全局模型模拟可能会得出误导性甚至错误的结论。地理加权回归(GWR)可解释火灾及其影响因素间空间关系的局部变异。本文选取影响火灾分布的高程、坡度、居民地可达性、道路可达性、地表温度、归一化差植被指数和全球植被湿度指数作为解释变量,以是否火烧作为二元因变量,应用logistic GWR对河南省2002-2012年火季(9-10月)火灾的影响因素进行探索性分析。以多时态空间抽样取得训练样本,利用GWR 4.0软件开发一个logistic GWR火烧概率模型,从可靠性和区分能力两方面对模型性能分别进行内部检验和独立检验,以确保火灾影响因素分析的可靠和合理性。结果表明:①坡度、居民地可达性、温度、植被长势和植被湿度对河南省火灾的影响呈现显著空间变化,高程、道路可达性的影响空间变化不显著,低海拔、道路可达性差的区域更易发生火灾。②温度和植被长势对火灾影响省内全局显著,坡度、居民地可达性和植被湿度对火灾影响在省内仅部分区域显著。③河南省可划分为7种类型区,不同类型区的火灾影响因素相对重要性存在差异,应因地制宜制定防火策略和确定防火重点。④logistic GWR模型可用于分析火灾影响因素的局部空间变异,作为火险研究的一种有效工具。     

Facies and stacking patterns of shelf-deltas within the Palaeogene Battfjellet Formation, Nordenskiöld Land, Svalbard: implications for subsurface reservoir prediction

Textural and mineralogical properties of the sediment, facies characteristics (both derived from well data), stacking patterns (derived from well and seismic data) and plan‐view shapes (derived from seismic data) are all essential components when reconstructing reservoir geometries from subsurface data sets. Without the availability of all these sources of information, reservoir predictions can potentially deviate significantly from the true geometries. In particular, inferences about internal sandbody geometry from plan‐view considerations (isopach maps and seismic attribute maps) may lead to erroneous conclusions without knowledge of facies and textural properties of the sediment. Analysis of well‐exposed sedimentary systems has the potential to establish links between internal facies characteristics and large‐scale geometry and to improve models coupling information at these variable scales. The Palaeogene Battfjellet Formation, Svalbard, has been studied with the aim to unravel internal characteristics and external form by investigating sediment properties, facies and stacking patterns. The formation shows a combination of texturally and mineralogically very immature sediments, a predominance of wave‐generated or wave‐induced sedimentary structures and a stacking pattern of highly variable numbers of parasequences at localities few kilometres apart that best can be explained in terms of small shifting deltaic lobes that produced a complex pattern of overlapping sandbodies. The strong evidence of wave action in the receiving basin could in itself indicate strike‐extensive sandstone bodies; however, the complex sandbody arrangement and the immaturity of the sediments preclude such an interpretation. Traditional facies models coupling plan‐view geometries with internal facies characteristics (such as the coupling of strike extensive barrier systems with wave‐dominated sedimentary structures or the coupling of elongated fluvial‐dominated deltas with offshore‐directed current‐generated structures) are much too simple and may lead to erroneous interpretations if the complexity revealed by all sources of data is not appreciated.     

Sequence Stratigraphy and Relative Sea Level Changes in Sinian System of Yichang, Hubei Province

TheSinianseCtionintheYangtZeGorges,YichangisthestfstotypesectionfortheNeoproterozoicofChina.Manydetailedresearchesonbiostratigraphyandlithostratigraphyhavebeendonethere.ThedetailedolltcropsequencestratigraphyisoneofthemainworkinsyntheSizedstratigraphy.Inthispaper,somenewprogressachievedinthisseCtionisintroduced.~NAGorsrviXNsvInordertosetupanewstratigraphicsyStembelowCambrianintheglobalstratigraphicframework,anintensiveresearchontheSilvanSyStemhasbeenconductedinChinasincethe1970s,andas…     

中国县域可达性区域划分及其与人口分布的关系

可达性空间划分是交通地理学研究的重要领域。分析其与人口布局的关系,对当下中国的发展具有重要的理论与实践意义。借助GIS 软件平台,运用栅格成本加权距离算法,计算全国县 (市、区) 域单元的空间可达性并进行区域划分,进而探讨中国大区域交通可达性与人口分布的关系,揭示不同交通条件和不同区域类型中人口迁移与人口流动内在机制,为区域规划、交通规划和中国人口配置提供科学依据。研究表明,①栅格成本加权距离算法可以实现空间可达性概念从定性描述转向定量计算的精确转换;②中国县域可达性以低值为主,具有圈层状和反自然梯度空间结构,黑河-腾冲线为明显分界线;③中国大陆分为3大区:可达性高值区、可达性中值区、可达性低值区。可达性中值区又可分为东南诸省亚区、陕甘宁晋亚区、吉林亚区;可达性低值区分为云川渝亚区、蒙黑亚区、新疆亚区、青藏亚区;④国家区域范围内县域可达性与人口密度具有明显的相关性,2.5小时圈是目前中国可达性与人口集聚产生作用的最远距离;中国县域可达性越高的区域,可达性对人口集聚产生作用圈就越大,而可达性值与人口数量的相关性越小,说明交通条件对落后地区人口集聚所起到的作用远远大于发达地区。     

接收函数的克希霍夫２D偏移方法

本文将地震反射资料成像的Kirchhoff偏移方法引入到接收函数成像研究,提出了一种接收函数的Kirchhoff偏移方法,以适应介质速度的横向变化,提高接收函数成像的精度和分辨率. 模型检验表明,与传统的水平分层的共转换点偏移叠加方法相比,Kirchhoff偏移方法能够实现转换波的有效归位,消除水平分层共转换点偏移叠加造成的假象. 一个很重要的现象是,倾斜或弯曲界面的成像明显受控于远震的入射方向,其成像精度的提高有赖于不同方向接收函数的联合成像.     

Reducing fluctuations in the sample variogram

In the analysis of regionalized data, irregular sampling patterns are often responsible for large deviations (fluctuations) between the theoretical and sample semi-variograms. This article proposes a new semi-variogram estimator that is unbiased irrespective of the actual multivariate distribution of the data (provided an assumption of stationarity) and has the minimal variance under a given multivariate distribution model. Such an estimator considerably reduces fluctuations in the sample semi-variogram when the data are strongly correlated and clustered in space, and proves to be robust to a misspecification of the multivariate distribution model. The traditional and proposed semi-variogram estimators are compared through an application to a pollution dataset.     

Indirect determination of weighted joint density (wJd) by empirical and fuzzy models: Supren (Eskisehir, Turkey) marbles

Correct block size assessment is the most important stage for rock quarry management. Although volumetric joint count (J_v) and weighted joint density (wJd) were proposed for this purpose, simple prediction method for these indices is not encountered in literature. Due to the fact that some rock masses such as marbles contain less discontinuity, collection of representative amount of data from in situ line surveys for statistical assessments is highly difficult. For this reason, the main targets of the present paper are to apply photoanalysis approach for collecting additional discontinuity data and to obtain some simple statistical and fuzzy models for predicting weighted joint density to evaluate block size in engineering practice for marbles around Supren (Eskisehir, Turkey). In addition, a new and simple approach to predict volumetric decrease caused by chemical weathering is introduced. For these purposes, extensive field and photoanalysis studies were performed and the data obtained from both field and photoanalysis studies were assessed by regression and fuzzy approaches. The results revealed that the prediction performance of the fuzzy inference system is higher than that of the regression equation.     

Internal anatomy of a mixed siliciclastic–carbonate platform: the Late Cenomanian–Mid Turonian at the southern margin of the Spanish Central System

The Late Cenomanian–Mid Turonian succession in central Spain is composed of siliciclastic and carbonate rocks deposited in a variety of coastal and marine shelf environments (alluvial plain–estuarine, lagoon, shoreface, offshore‐hemipelagic and carbonate ramp). Three depositional sequences (third order) are recognized: the Atienza, Patones and El Molar sequences. The Patones sequence contains five fourth‐order parasequence sets, while a single parasequence set is recognized in the Atienza and El Molar sequences. Systems tracts can be recognized both in the sequences and parasequence sets. The lowstand systems tracts (only recognized for Atienza and Patones sequences) are related to erosion and sequence boundary formation. Transgressive systems tracts are related to marine transgression and shoreface retreat. The highstand systems tracts are related to shoreface extension and progradation, and to carbonate production and ramp progradation. Sequences are bounded by erosion or emergence surfaces, whose locations are supported by mineralogical analyses and suggest source area reactivation probably due to a fall in relative sea‐level. Transgressive surfaces are subordinate erosion and/or omission surfaces with a landward facies shift, interpreted as parasequence set boundaries. The co‐existence of siliciclastic and carbonate sediments and environments occurred as facies mixing or as distinct facies belts along the basin. Mixed facies of coastal areas are composed of detrital quartz and clays derived from the hinterland, and dolomite probably derived from bioclastic material. Siliciclastic flux to coastal areas is highly variable, the maximum flux postdates relative sea‐level falls. Carbonate production in these areas may be constant, but the final content is a function of changing inputs in terrigenous sediments and carbonate content diminishes through a dilution effect. Carbonate ramps were detached from the coastal system and separated by a fringe of offshore, fine‐grained muds and silts as distinct facies belts. The growth of carbonate ramp deposits was related to the highstand systems tracts of the fourth‐order parasequence sets. During the growth of these ramps, some sediment starvation occurred basinwards. Progradation and retrogradation of the different belts occur simultaneously, suggesting a sea‐level control on sedimentation. In the study area, the co‐existence of carbonate and siliciclastic facies belts depended on the superimposition of different orders of relative sea‐level cycles, and occurred mainly when the second‐order, third‐order and fourth‐order cycles showed highstand conditions.     

反射波和折射波VSPCDP同时成像

介绍了反射波和折射波的 Ｖ Ｓ Ｐ Ｃ Ｄ Ｐ 同时成象方法,通过模型资料试算证实,对于大偏移距与深度比 Ｖ Ｓ Ｐ 资料或速度梯度大的 Ｖ Ｓ Ｐ 资料,反射波和折射波 Ｖ Ｓ Ｐ Ｃ Ｄ Ｐ 同时成像方法行之有效,而反射波 Ｖ Ｓ Ｐ Ｃ Ｄ Ｐ 迭加方法会得到错误的成像结果。     

塔里木盆地中原探区速度场研究方法

利用自行编程设计的速度场算法,建立了塔里木盆地中原探区的速度场模型,并应用于油气勘探生产之中．在塔中地区,影响平均速度的主要因素是地层埋深和火成岩的岩性．在巴楚地区,影响平均速度变化的主要因素是大的构造运动形成的多角度不整合界面和断距较大的断层．总结出了一套适合地质复杂地区速度场建立的方法;利用该速度场进行变速成图,能够提高成图精度、排除假构造、发现新的圈闭、减小勘探风险,落实发现了一批圈闭,提供探井多口,实现了油气勘探的突破。