上海地区扁铲侧胀试验计算地基承载力的探讨

通过对扁铲侧胀试验和试验机理的研究和对试验指数的对比分析 ,提出了用扁铲侧胀试验计算地基承载力的方法 ;利用上海地区部分重大工程中的扁铲侧胀试验数据 ,在与室内土工试验、静力触探试验及十字板剪切试验的相关分析的基础上 ,经数理统计后给出了上海地区用扁铲侧胀试验计算地基承载力的经验公式。最后 ,通过与室内土工试验、静力触探试验和十字板剪切试验计算的地基承载力对比 ,分析了本经验公式计算地基承载力的精度。研究分析表明 ,可以用扁铲侧胀试验计算地基承载力     

岩质高边坡岩体变形参数及松弛带厚度研究

预测岩质高边坡开挖后岩体变形模量的变化及松弛带厚度，是分析岩质高边坡在开挖后变形（位移）和作好防护设计的重要资料，运用波动力学关于平均应力与体积模量、岩体纵波速度与弹性模量、变形模量间的关系，通过部分实测资料及边坡应力场有限元分析的资料，分别建立了纵波速度与岩体变形模、岩体应力间的关系，研究了开挖边坡岩体变形模量的变化，预测了岩体松弛带的厚度。     

国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践

对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。     

Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.     

Application of the Wavelet Packet Method in Discrimination Between Nuclear Explosion and Earthquake

Although the CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty) was passed in 1996, it is still necessary to develop new and highly efficient methods (Wu Zhongliang, Chen Yuntai, et al.,1993 ; Xu Shaoxie, et al. 1994; Richard L. Garwin, 1994) to monitor possible events. Many discrimination criteria (Xu Shaoxie, et al., 1994 ; Institute of Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1976; Richard L. Garwin, 1994) have been put forward since the 1950s. The results show that each of the existing criteria has its own limitation, but the seismological method is an important and efficient method in the discrimination between nuclear explosion and earthquake. Especially in recent years, because of the little and little equivalent as well as the increasing hiding steps used in the test, a number of more efficient seismological methods have been worked out. In this paper, a new discrimination method, the Wavelet Packet Component Ratio (WPCR) method, is put forward. This method makes full use of the difference in variation with time between the spectra of nuclear explosions and earthquakes. Its discrimination efficiency is rather high.     

沈阳近百年的温度变化特征及其环流形势分析

沈阳地处全球温度变化的敏感带，在近百年的温度观测记录中，沈阳的温度变化呈逐渐上升之势，近百年增高约1．7℃，这种上升趋势在冬季远比夏季明显。沈阳的年平均温度变化有一个12a的周期，各周期温度基本呈阶梯状上升，20世纪末的周期冬季平均温度比世纪初的周期升温2．8℃左右。从近50a的极端温度的变化趋势来看，极端最低温度明显升高，而极端最高温度并没有上升，变化趋势甚至略下降，以致冬、夏两季温差缩小。从沈阳的最低平均温度和最高平均温度变化来看，两者均随时间逐渐升高，说明沈阳市的增温不仅是最低温度升高造成的，最高温度的增温作用亦十分重要。从冬季环流形势分析来看，东亚大槽及其后弱脊和地面蒙古高压在上世纪80年代、90年代明显减弱，使得冷空气向南侵袭的径向气流减弱，是导致位于冷空气通道中的沈阳冬季增温明显的原因之一。     

四川新康风化淋滤型海泡石的热相变研究

以四川新康风化淋滤型海泡石为研究对象，利用X射线衍射分析和红外光谱分析技术，对海泡石的热相变过程及特征进行了研究。结果发现，四川新康风化淋滤型海泡石的相变过程与沉积型、热液型海泡石相变过程明显不同，其相变过程可以划分为两个阶段：800℃以下保持海泡石相；800℃以上海泡石相转化为斜顽辉石相。     

增量位移反分析在水电地下洞室工程中的应用

反分析是确定计算模型参数的有效方法.通常多采用量测所得全量位移进行反演计算.但地下工程中许多量测数据为增量位移,且实际施工过程可以通过建立分步开挖的有限元模型来模拟.据此,结合某水电站地下洞室工程中地下厂房的开挖,建立了模拟动态施工的有限元模型,利用某一开挖步施工前后量测值之差,采用增量位移优化反分析方法对洞室附近初始地应力场及围岩弹性模量进行了反演.计算所得增量位移与实测值符合较好,表明了这种方法的可行性.同时,根据分析结果对该方法进行了评价.     

Beds comprising debrite sandwiched within co-genetic turbidite: origin and widespread occurrence in distal depositional environments

Co‐genetic debrite–turbidite beds occur in a variety of modern and ancient turbidite systems. Their basic character is distinctive. An ungraded muddy sandstone interval is encased within mud‐poor graded sandstone, siltstone and mudstone. The muddy sandstone interval preserves evidence of en masse deposition and is thus termed a debrite. The mud‐poor sandstone, siltstone and mudstone show features indicating progressive layer‐by‐layer deposition and are thus called a turbidite. Palaeocurrent indicators, ubiquitous stratigraphic association and the position of hemipelagic intervals demonstrate that debrite and enclosing turbidite originate in the same event. Detailed field observations are presented for co‐genetic debrite–turbidite beds in three widespread sequences of variable age: the Miocene Marnoso Arenacea Formation in the Italian Apennines; the Silurian Aberystwyth Grits in Wales; and Quaternary deposits of the Agadir Basin, offshore Morocco. Deposition of these sequences occurred in similar unchannellized basin‐plain settings. Co‐genetic debrite–turbidite beds were deposited from longitudinally segregated flow events, comprising both debris flow and forerunning turbidity current. It is most likely that the debris flow was generated by relatively shallow (few tens of centimetres) erosion of mud‐rich sea‐floor sediment. Changes in the settling behaviour of sand grains from a muddy fluid as flows decelerated may also have contributed to debrite deposition. The association with distal settings results from the ubiquitous presence of muddy deposits in such locations, which may be eroded and disaggregated to form a cohesive debris flow. Debrite intervals may be extensive (> 26 × 10 km in the Marnoso Arenacea Formation) and are not restricted to basin margins. Such long debris flow run‐out on low‐gradient sea floor (< 0·1°) may simply be due to low yield strength (? 50 Pa) of the debris–water mixture. This study emphasizes that multiple flow types, and transformations between flow types, can occur within the distal parts of submarine flow events.     

Transformation of Residuals to Avoid Artifacts in Geostatistical Modelling with a Trend

Trend modelling is an important part of natural resource characterization. A common approach to account for a variable with a trend is to decompose it into a relatively smoothly varying trend and a more variable residual component. Then, the residuals are stochastically modelled independent of the trend. This decomposition can result in values outside the plausible range of variability, such as grades below zero or ratios that exceed 1.0. We transform the residuals conditional to the trend component to explicitly remove these complex features prior to geostatistical modelling. Back transformation of the modelled residual values allows the complex relations to be reproduced. A petroleum-related application shows the robustness of the proposed transformation. Furthermore, a mining application shows that when this conditional transformation is applied to the original variable, instead of the residual, simulated values are assured to be nonnegative.