金华市水资源承载力分析

从生态学角度出发,提出水资源承载力是在社会发展的某一阶段和生态系统良性循环的条件下,水资源对人类活动的最大支撑能力。指出目前金华市的水荒不是水源型缺水,而是水质型缺水和工程型缺水。根据20多年的历史数据和2020年全面建设小康社会的标准,利用系统动力学(SD)模型,仿真研究了金华市未来政策实施后水资源承载力的动态变化过程。同时指出,对于金华市来说,单方面追求经济的快速发展、以牺牲环境作为代价的高方案和把环境保护作为首要目标、经济慢速发展的低方案都是不可取的,只有经济发展和环境保护同时兼顾的中方案才是首选方案。     

中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响因素——基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据

基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据和相关统计年鉴数据,对中国地级以上城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿、空间格局及影响因素进行了系统分析。研究发现,中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的整体水平并不高;等级高、规模大的城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高,而等级低、规模小的城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿低;沿海城市群流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高,其他城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿低,但内陆部分省会城市和交通区位与资源禀赋较好的中小城市也已经形成了一批流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高值区。中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间分布特征受到流入城市和流动人口自身双重力量的影响,流入城市因素的正向影响作用大于流动人口自身因素。其中,流入城市的社会、经济发展水平和流动人口在流入城市的社会融合程度是核心要素,对城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的提升具有正向的促进作用,而流动人口过于集中在次级劳动力市场的就业特征和较高的家庭财富与收入对户籍迁移意愿的提升却具有显著的抑制作用。最后,提出了相关政策启示。     

Circulating planning ideas from the metropole to the colonies: understanding South Africa's segregated cities through policy mobilities

In the early part of the twentieth century, South African cities were segregated in accordance with British city planning concepts that embodied the belief that social order can be manipulated through the urban form. This paper surveys the history of South African planning practices to understand the spread of segregation policies and practices. Whereas scholars tend to agree that the apartheid city (post?1948) is a more highly organized and structured version of the colonial city (pre?1910), the literature lacks consensus on the development of the segregated city (1910?1948) within South Africa. How did concepts of segregation circulate and why was it implemented with such consistency? Accordingly, this paper employs concepts of policy mobilities to trace historical configurations in South Africa to international influences. The focus on the circuits of knowledge explains how concepts and designs transplanted from elsewhere helped create the form of South African cities today. Understanding the movement of planning ideas through policy mobilities furthers geographical understandings of historical circulation processes, the role of the local actors, and policy mobilities failure. This history of learning also challenges the assumption that South African cities are unique and in so doing opens the doors for knowledge sharing between postcolonial cities.     

LOCATING EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN URBAN AREAS TO MINIMIZE TRAVEL TIME

The transportation requirements of an urban area are, in part, a function of its land use pattern. Reducing travel in an urban area by effective land use design appears to be a worthwhile public policy objective. The planning model derived in this article uses as its core the matrix version of the Lowry model developed by Garin. The model allocates basic employment to the zones of an urban area in order to minimize work and service trips. A hypothetical planning problem for Metropolitan Toronto illustrates use of the model.     

卫星遥感结合气象资料计算的中国干旱区夏季地面感热特征

选用美国国家海洋和大气局(NOAA)系列卫星观测的1982-2006年历年夏季每半月合成的归一化差值植被指数(NDVI)数据资料和针对我国西北干旱区不同下垫面的Ch-INDV参数化关系式,计算了我国110°E以西/35°N以北区域内84个气象站历年夏季各月的地表热力输送系数Ch值和地面感热通量序列,并将其与ERA-40再分析感热资料进行了比较分析。随后,通过数理统计和经验正交函数(EOF)分析方法,研究其时空分布的基本特征和异常变化的演变规律及其东、西部地面感热年际变化的差异。主要结论为:(1)我国西北干旱区夏季地面感热通量实际计算值与ERA-40再分析感热资料相比,两者在值的大小、分布形势和年际变化趋势上均较一致,但感热实际计算值的空间分布更加明显地突出了各气象站所在区域的局地特征。(2)对西北干旱区夏季地面感热EOF分析表明,第一模态反映了全场一致的空间变化,第二和第三模态在干旱区东部和西部区具有不同的南北反向或东西反向的空间变化。第一和第二主分量有较明显的年代际或更长时间尺度的周期变化,第三主分量的年际变化较明显。(3)西北干旱区东部和西部夏季地面感热输送具有相反的年际变化趋势,干旱区东部呈逐年增加的趋...     

水汽吸收和下垫面发射率对晴空大气红外窗区遥感影响的综合分析

从数学上探讨了晴空大气红外窗区通道遥感陆面特性水汽吸收和陆面发射率的综合影响。首先,基于辐射传输方程推导出大气水汽含量和陆面发射率(ε)引起红外窗区通道遥感陆面亮温(Tg)变化的数学表达式,指出红外辐射在传输过程中水汽吸收衰减的影响主要是引起大气透过率的变化;分析了在高温高湿和低温干燥等不同地区,红外窗区通道的大气透过率所受到的不同程度的衰减,以及水汽吸收衰减和陆面发射率对不同的红外窗区通道的影响。此外,还建立了一个红外窗区通道遥感陆面温度与地面亮温差ΔT=(Ts-Tg,imax)与水汽含量变化Δq和陆面发射率ε的二元多项式拟合方程,进一步分析大气水汽含量和陆面发射率对不同的红外窗区通道遥感的影响;指出红外短波窗区通道不但受太阳辐射污染严重,而且受陆面发射率变化的影响激烈,特别是在寒冷干燥的亚北极冬季。最后强调,为了精确地反演陆面温度,最好采用热红外窗区通道;必须考虑大气订正,特别是在高温高湿区;同时应该考虑陆面发射率等因子的作用。     

蓬莱市土地储备出让工作运行与探讨

土地储备出让工作是我国为改变传统的土地供应模式、规范调控土地市场、优化土地资源配置,实现土地收益的最大化而做出的重大创新。通过调查研究并结合蓬莱市土地储备出让工作运行实际,就土地储备出让过程中存在的问题作出分析并提出相应建议。     

Nonmarine Cretaceous palynology of northern Kordofan,Sudan, with notes on fossil Salviniales (water ferns)

A palynological investigation of 164 samples from 18 water wells in northern Kordofan, Sudan, enabled the recognition of five informal zones based on pollen and spore assemblages ranging in age from Albian to Maastrichtian. The youngest (late Campanian-Maastrichtian) assemblages are restricted to the Bagbag Basin, whereas Albian-Cenomanian (to Turonian) sediments are widespread to the east and west of the Bagbag area. Impressions of Salvinia floating leaves from outcrops of the upper Hamrat el Wuz Formation, western part of the study area, are among the oldest occurrences of this water fern and indicate a Campanian-Maastrichtian age for these sediments.The vertical distribution of hygrophilous (pteridophytic spores) versus xerophilous (ephedroids and possibly small, weakly sculptured tricolporates) elements in the palynofloras suggests widespread moist or even aquatic habitats in the Albian-Cenomanian and Campanian-Maastrichtian. A shift towards drier conditions occurred in the late Cenomanian-Turonian. Throughout the Cretaceous, however, there may have been extensive arid/semiarid areas of non-deposition and seasonally dry periods. Some characteristics of the local palynofloras are attributed to its inner continental position. Rare Albian-Cenomanian and Campanian-Maastrichtian dinoflagellates could be interpreted as lacustrine phytoplankton rather than as evidence for marine influence.     

玉树隆宝2014年冬季冻土积雪对陆气通量关键参数的影响分析

利用玉树隆宝湿地的观测资料,分析了未冻结、冻结和冻结有积雪覆盖三种情况下动量通量和感热通量的日变化情况,计算了三种情况下动量总体输送系数、感热总体输送系数、动力学粗糙度和热力学粗糙度,分析了附加阻尼和粗糙度雷诺数的关系,并将三种附加阻尼的参数化方案进行了比较,结果表明:冻结状态下动量通量和感热通量的日变化幅度最大,冻结有积雪覆盖时,动量通量和感热通量的日变化幅度最小。动量总体输送系数C_D和感热总体输送系数C_H的值在冻结时最大,冻结有积雪覆盖时最小,动力学粗糙度和热力学粗糙度在冻结状况下最小,冻结有积雪覆盖时最大。未冻结、冻结和冻结有积雪覆盖状态下,三种附加阻尼kB~(-1)参数化方案中,幂函数型方案较为合适。     

Comparative analysis of fuzzy inference systems for water consumption time series prediction

Two types of fuzzy inference systems (FIS) are used for predicting municipal water consumption time series. The FISs used include an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a Mamdani fuzzy inference systems (MFIS). The prediction models are constructed based on the combination of the antecedent values of water consumptions. The performance of ANFIS and MFIS models in training and testing phases are compared with the observations and the best fit model is identified according to the selected performance criteria. The results demonstrated that the ANFIS model is superior to MFIS models and can be successfully applied for prediction of water consumption time series.