三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应(英文)

Runoff at the three time scales(non-flooding season,flooding season and annual period) was simulated and tested from 1958 to 2005 at Tangnaihai(Yellow River Source Region:YeSR),Zhimenda(Yangtze River Source Region:YaSR) and Changdu(Lancang River Source Region:LcSR) by hydrological modeling,trend detection and comparative analysis.Also,future runoff variations from 2010 to 2039 at the three outlets were analyzed in A1B and B1 scenarios of CSIRO and NCAR climate model and the impact of climate change was tested.The results showed that the annual and non-flooding season runoff decreased significantly in YeSR,which decreased the water discharge to the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River,and intensified the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin,but the other two regions were not statistically significant in the last 48 years.Compared with the runoff in baseline(1990s),the runoff in YeSR would decrease in the following 30 years(2010-2039),especially in the non-flooding season.Thus the water shortage in the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River Basin would be serious continuously.The runoff in YaSR would increase,especially in the flooding season,thus the flood control situation would be severe.The runoff in LcSR would also be greater than the current runoff,and the annual and flooding season runoff would not change significantly,while the runoff variation in the non-flooding season is uncertain.It would increase significantly in the B1 scenario of CSIRO model but decrease significantly in B1 scenario of NCAR model.Furthermore,the most sensitive region to climate change is YaSR,followed by YeSR and LcSR.     

丹江口水库向白洋淀补水生态调度方案研究

白洋淀是华北平原最大的淡水湖泊。近年来,入淀水量和降水量持续减少导致淀水位持续下降。尽管国家实施了多次的生态补水调度,但由于缺乏长效补水机制,白洋淀生态环境恶化趋势仍没有得到有效控制。南水北调中线一期工程的建设,使利用丹江口水库向白洋淀补充生态环境用水成为可能。本文通过研究丹江口水库不同运行调度方案,探讨了利用水文和气象预测、预报信息来指导水库生态调度的可行性。在分析生态预报调度方式内涵的基础上,结合丹江口水库相机补充白洋淀生态用水实例来说明该方法的实用性和可行性。研究表明,基于预报信息的生态优化调度方案,可使白洋淀多年平均补水量增加48%以上。     

Investigation of water signatures at gully-exposed sites on Mars by hyperspectral image analysis

High-resolution images from the Mars Obiter Camera (MOC) onboard the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) show a variety of gully features on sloped surfaces of Mars. The mechanism of gully formation is still under debate, although a majority of studies tend to favor a mechanism related to liquid water flow based on geomorphology and fluid mechanics considerations. In this study, we examined four known gully sites using Visible and Infrared Mineralogical Mapping Spectrometer (OMEGA) imagery. In particular, we analyzed the absorption depths of the water-associated absorption bands and concluded that there are stronger water signatures at the gully-exposed sites than in the surrounding areas. This implies that the water signatures, most likely representing water ice, isolated water molecules, and/or hydroxyl molecules incorporated into minerals, are still present in the shallow unconsolidated soils. This study provides additional evidence that water was likely involved in the formation of the gully features and is still locally active on the Martian surface in the present time.     

Water and related chemistry in the solar system. A guaranteed time key programme for Herschel

“Water and related chemistry in the Solar System” is a Herschel Space Observatory Guaranteed-Time Key Programme. This project, approved by the European Space Agency, aims at determining the distribution, the evolution and the origin of water in Mars, the outer planets, Titan, Enceladus and the comets. It addresses the broad topic of water and its isotopologues in planetary and cometary atmospheres. The nature of cometary activity and the thermodynamics of cometary comae will be investigated by studying water excitation in a sample of comets. The D/H ratio, the key parameter for constraining the origin and evolution of Solar System species, will be measured for the first time in a Jupiter-family comet. A comparison with existing and new measurements of D/H in Oort-cloud comets will constrain the composition of pre-solar cometary grains and possibly the dynamics of the protosolar nebula. New measurements of D/H in giant planets, similarly constraining the composition of proto-planetary ices, will be obtained. The D/H and other isotopic ratios, diagnostic of Mars’ atmosphere evolution, will be accurately measured in H₂O and CO. The role of water vapor in Mars’ atmospheric chemistry will be studied by monitoring vertical profiles of H₂O and HDO and by searching for several other species (and CO and H₂O isotopes). A detailed study of the source of water in the upper atmosphere of the Giant Planets and Titan will be performed. By monitoring the water abundance, vertical profile, and input fluxes in the various objects, and when possible with the help of mapping observations, we will discriminate between the possible sources of water in the outer planets (interplanetary dust particles, cometary impacts, and local sources). In addition to these inter-connected objectives, serendipitous searches will enhance our knowledge of the composition of planetary and cometary atmospheres.     

Ecophysiology of atmospheric moisture in the Namib Desert

Although the Namib Desert is classified as hyperarid, with rainfall extremely rare, there are several other sources of atmospheric moisture, namely, humidity, dew and fog, which make it possible for organisms to live there. Methods to use these sources include locating moist micro-climates, drinking from wet surfaces, consuming moist food, collecting water on the body, and absorbing water vapour. In describing these mechanisms from published sources, we highlight the work of Professor Gideon Louw, to whom we dedicate this paper. Louw's pioneering work on water relations and economy, which includes osmoregulation in desert plants and animals such as grass, beetles, and springbok, established a foundation that inspired numerous studies by colleagues and students. Ecophysiology provides many more lessons that have potential to be mimicked and applied in the occult collection of water in arid regions.     

中国东部—西太平洋副热带季风和降水的气候特征及成因分析

利用1981—2000年候平均NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和CMAP全球降水资料,分析了从中国东部大陆到西太平洋副热带地区季风和降水季节变化的特征及其与热带季风降水的关系,探讨了季风建立和加强的原因。夏季东亚—西太平洋盛行的西南风开始于江南和西太平洋副热带的春初,并向北扩展到中纬度,热带西南风范围向北扩展的迹象不明显。从冬到夏,中国西部和西太平洋副热带的表面加热季节变化可以使副热带对流层向西的温度梯度反转比热带早,使西南季风在副热带最早开始;从大气环流看,青藏高原东侧低压槽的加强和向东延伸,以及西太平洋副热带高压的加强和向西移动,都影响着副热带西南季风的开始和发展;初夏江南的南风向北扩展与副热带高压向北移动有关,随着高原东侧低压槽向南延伸,槽前的偏南风范围向南扩展。随着副热带季风建立和向北扩展,其最大风速中心前方的低层空气质量辐合和水汽辐合以及上升运动也加强和向北移动,导致降水加强和雨带向北移动。热带季风雨季开始晚,主要维持在热带而没有明显进入副热带,江淮梅雨不是由热带季风雨带直接向北移动而致,而是由春季江南雨带北移而致。在热带季风爆发前,副热带季风区水汽输送主要来自中南半岛北部和中国华南沿海,而在热带季风爆发后,水汽输送来自孟加拉湾和热带西太平洋。     

中全新世时期中国地区水循环因子变化的模拟研究

利用全球气候模式CAEM3嵌套区域模式MM5模拟了现代和中全新世时的气候,从模拟结果可以发现中全新世有效降水变化中心随季节变化,最大的有效降水增加出现在夏季东北地区和内蒙古东部,最大值超过3 mm/d;同时,黄河与长江之间区域降水减少,最大变化超过2 mm/d.中国北方地区云量增加,同时,中国东部的长江流域云量减少.高云量变化较小,低云量变化最大,最大变化超过2成.夏季,对应着黄河与长江之间区域的云量减少,这个区域的温度升高最大.从水汽的变化可以看到长江流域地区水汽减少,相对湿度也减少,这与云量的变化一致;华南地区水汽的变化与季节有关;东北地区水汽增加,相对湿度增大,对应云量的增加和降水增多.从结果可以发现相对湿度最大的变化超过15%,不是一个常数.有些地区温度升高,但是水汽却减少.但是,在LGM的温度降低的区域,水汽一致减少.这说明温度降低水汽对应减少,但温度升高不一定对应水汽增加.这与全球尺度水汽相对湿度基本保持常数的结果不同.中全新世时,长江流域除春季外变得干燥、少雨和高温,东北和内蒙古东部变得多雨和潮湿.     

Validation of a regional Indonesian Seas model based on a comparison between model and INSTANT transports

The International Nusantara Stratification and Transport (INSTANT) program measured currents through multiple Indonesian Seas passages simultaneously over a three-year period (from January 2004 to December 2006). The Indonesian Seas region has presented numerous challenges for numerical modelers — the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) must pass over shallow sills, into deep basins, and through narrow constrictions on its way from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean. As an important region in the global climate puzzle, a number of models have been used to try and best simulate this throughflow. In an attempt to validate our model, we present a comparison between the transports calculated from our model and those calculated from the INSTANT in situ measurements at five passages within the Indonesian Seas (Labani Channel, Lifamatola Passage, Lombok Strait, Ombai Strait, and Timor Passage). Our Princeton Ocean Model (POM) based regional Indonesian Seas model was originally developed to analyze the influence of bottom topography on the temperature and salinity distributions in the Indonesian seas region, to disclose the path of the South Pacific Water from the continuation of the New Guinea Coastal Current entering the region of interest up to the Lifamatola Passage, and to assess the role of the pressure head in driving the ITF and in determining its total transport. Previous studies found that this model reasonably represents the general long-term flow (seasons) through this region. The INSTANT transports were compared to the results of this regional model over multiple timescales. Overall trends are somewhat represented but changes on timescales shorter than seasonal (three months) and longer than annual were not considered in our model. Normal velocities through each passage during every season are plotted. Daily volume transports and transport-weighted temperature and salinity are plotted and seasonal averages are tabulated.     

Investigation of the hydrogeochemistry of some bottled mineral waters in Hungary

Bottled drinking water constitutes a significant part of total water consumption in developed countries and national and EU legislation regulates their market production. In the framework of an international project carried out by the EuroGeoSurveys Geochemistry Expert Group 36 bottled waters were obtained from public markets in Hungary in order to determine their hydrogeochemical composition. The objective of this study is to investigate the possible relationship between groundwater aquifer lithology and the processed and marketed bottled waters, and to develop a classification of bottled waters, based on their dissolved mineral content. Analytical results of this study are compared with the composition shown on bottle labels, and with archive hydrochemical data from the producing wells. Results show that, while processing of original groundwater, such as oxygen addition, iron or hydrogen-sulphide removal can significantly alter water composition, bottled water composition can be used for selection of sites for detailed hydrogeochemical and hydrogeological characterization. A simple and useful classification of bottled water quality is also presented that is based on natural groups of sampled waters derived by means of statistical data analysis methods.     

Use of measurement uncertainty in a probabilistic scheme to assess compliance of bottled water with drinking water standards

Ground water bodies are important resources for drinking water, including bottled water, and national regulatory bodies should assess their quality continuously. For this purpose, an effective assessment system of bottled water at source should be installed. A hierarchical nested balance design for the collection of random primary duplicate water samples, and their replicate analyses, is described, and the use of robust analysis of variance to estimate measurement uncertainty. The latter is subsequently used for the development of four probabilistic categories for the classification of element concentrations in bottled water with respect to legislative standard values, i.e., (a) compliant (below Lower Threshold Limit), (b) possibly non-compliant (possibly above Standard Value), (c) probably non-compliant (probably above Standard Value), and (d) non-compliant (above Upper Threshold Limit), for the reliable assessment of compliance to European Union and national drinking water standards. Overall, the quality of European bottled water is considered good, with the exception of a few that have concentrations in Mn, B, Ba, As, Fe, Ni, Se, and Al, which are definitely above the estimated respective Upper Threshold Limit and, thus, exceed the corresponding legislative standard value defined by European Union directives. National regulatory bodies should verify these results, and install an efficient assessment system of compliance to regulatory limits using the methodology described in this paper.