Computational modeling of cyclic mobility and post-liquefaction site response

Under seismic excitation, liquefied clean medium to dense cohesionless soils may regain a high level of shear resistance at large shear strain excursions. This pattern of response, known as a form of cyclic mobility, has been documented by a large body of laboratory sample tests and centrifuge experiments. A plasticity-based constitutive model is developed with emphasis on simulating the cyclic mobility response mechanism and associated pattern of shear strain accumulation. This constitutive model is incorporated into a two-phase (solid–fluid), fully coupled finite element code. Calibration of the constitutive model is described, based on a unique set of laboratory triaxial tests (monotonic and cyclic) and dynamic centrifuge experiments. In this experimental series, Nevada sand at a relative density of about 40% is employed. The calibration effort focused on reproducing the salient characteristics of dynamic site response as dictated by the cyclic mobility mechanism. Finally, using the calibrated model, a numerical simulation is conducted to highlight the effect of excitation frequency content on post-liquefaction ground deformations.     

The use of modern statistical theories in the assessment of earthquake hazard, with application to quiet regions of eastern North America

It is generally accepted that both deterministic and statistical approaches are useful for the characterization of earthquake hazard. Although the most reliable estimates of seismic hazard can only be based on an improved understanding of the earthquake mechanism, efficient utilization of the appropriate methods provided by recent statistical theories is also important in seismic risk analysis. This is especially true in regions where the connection between seismicity and geologic structure is tenuous at best. We are particularly interested in developing better statistical treatments of data for regions with little known seismic activity. To this end, we have applied three statistical methods to the historical record of seismicity in relatively quiet regions of eastern North America. These are: (1) the threshold method for tail inference, a new theory for modeling earthquakes with sizes above a given threshold, (2) the ‘bootstrap’ technique in which the characteristics of an unknown population are simulated by replacing the true population by an estimated one, and (3) a technique to estimate the number of earthquakes below a given size, in order to compensate for the under-reporting of small earthquakes in most catalogs. A combination of these techniques has been used to estimate the probabilities of future large earthquakes for the regions studied. Because of limitations imposed by existing catalogs, the size estimate used has been maximum intensity.     

Fuzzy neural network models for liquefaction prediction

Integrated fuzzy neural network models are developed for the assessment of liquefaction potential of a site. The models are trained with large databases of liquefaction case histories. A two-stage training algorithm is used to develop a fuzzy neural network model. In the preliminary training stage, the training case histories are used to determine initial network parameters. In the final training stage, the training case histories are processed one by one to develop membership functions for the network parameters. During the testing phase, input variables are described in linguistic terms such as ‘high’ and ‘low’. The prediction is made in terms of a liquefaction index representing the degree of liquefaction described in fuzzy terms such as ‘highly likely’, ‘likely’, or ‘unlikely’. The results from the model are compared with actual field observations and misclassified cases are identified. The models are found to have good predictive ability and are expected to be very useful for a preliminary evaluation of liquefaction potential of a site for which the input parameters are not well defined.     

Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times

We examined the hypothesis that minima in local recurrence time, T_L, or equivalently maxima in local probability, P_L, may map asperities in the Kanto and Tokai areas of Japan, where the earthquake catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is complete at the M=1.5 (M1.5) level. We mapped T_L (P_L) based on the a- and b-values of the nearest earthquakes within 20 km of every node of a grid spaced 0.01° for M7 target events. Only earthquakes within the top 33 km were used. The b-values increase strongly with depth, in several areas. Therefore, some of the T_L (P_L) anomalies are not revealed if data from the entire crustal seismogenic zone are mixed. Thus, we mapped T_L (P_L) separately for the top 15 km and the rest of the depth range, as well as for the entire seismogenic crust. The resulting T_L- and P_L-maps show that approximately 12% of the total area shows anomalously short recurrence times. Out of six shallow target events with M≥6.5 and which occurred since 1890, five are located within the anomalous areas with T_L <450 years. We interpret this to mean that areas with anomalously short T_L map asperities, which are more likely than other areas to generate future target events. The probability that this result is due to chance is vanishingly small. The great Kanto rupture of 1923 appears to have initiated in the most significant asperity we mapped in the study area. One anomaly is located in the northeastern part of the area of the proposed future rupture of the Tokai earthquake, and another one at its southwestern corner. The absolute values of T_L calculated are uncertain because they depend on the size of the volume used for the calculation.     

PRELIMINARY NUMERICAL STUDY OF TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU ON SURFACE DIRECT RADIATION*

To improve the simulating ability of a model,this paper presents a scheme of calculating direct radiation at land surface with topography in the model.A numerical study is conducted for the topographic effects of the Tibetan Plateau on the direct radiation using NCEP terrain data.Results show that,after taking account into the topographic radiation effect,the regional average of the radiation over the Plateau obviously increases in the local early morning and late afternoon,but changes less around noon.The effect is stronger in winter than that in summer.And heterogeneous topography has also affected the distribution of the radiation in this area.A simple numerical experiment shows that considering the effect will lead ground temperature to increase on the slope having more sunshine,and vice versa.     

浅谈地震保险的必要性及其作用

以防震减灾为视角，针对地震灾害对社会发展及人民生活造成的重大损失，从强化地震保险意识的角度，论述地震保险的必要性和重大意义。同时对地震保险在心理、补偿、救灾、缓冲、防灾及附带等方面的作用加以阐述，从而证明要减少地震灾害的损失，充分认识地震保险的必要性及其作用，建立和完善有效的保险机制，对于减轻地震灾害，促进社会发展和人民安居乐业是一项必要的基础性工作。     

中国西南及邻区上地幔P波三维速度结构/

利用ISC报告以及中国和NEIC基本测震台网报告中的80974条P波初至到时资料（地震数为7053，台站数为165，且地震和台站都分布在研究区内），对中国西南及邻区（北纬10～36、东经70～110）的深至400km的上地幔三维速度结构进行了研究，分辨率达22．初步结果表明:①研究区速度的横向不均匀性，虽随深度增加而减弱，但至400km深度时仍很明显；②在北纬16和24的纵剖面上，可以看到与印度板块向东和欧亚板块相碰撞挤压相对应的速度结构，以及印度板块与欧亚板块速度结构的差异．在东经90的纵剖面上，与印度板块向北俯冲到欧亚板块（青藏高原）之下相对应的速度结构也比较明显；③在90ｋｍ深度的横剖面上，由缅甸的密支那至越南的洞海的低速条带，可能与红河断裂带有关；④ 提出并使用了能够更为准确直观地描述分辨率好坏的图示方法．      

1999年台湾7.6级大震与江苏-南黄海地区中强震预测

分析讨论了台湾地区7级大震与本区中强震之间相关关系，指出1999年台湾7.6级大震后2－3年内，本区将有5－6级中强震发生。同时应用可公度模型和“带头地震”的异年倍九法联合对本区中强震发震时间进行分析预测。结论表明，该方法可以较好地应用于本区短临地震预报实践。     

云南中强震的水氡前兆异常特征

2001年云南澜沧5.0、施甸5.2,5.9,5.3、宁蒗5.8、楚雄5.3和江川5.1级地震前，云南49项水氡前兆中的一些台站出现突出的异常。研究发现，根据这些异常项的异常特征和空间分布特征及历史震例，可对这几次地震预报的三要素，尤其是地点和时间做出较好的判断。     

川滇地区地震(Ms≥5.0)破裂类型与前兆异常分布的关系

对川滇地区 31次 (组 ) 5 .0级以上地震与余震次数的关系进行了统计 ,结合“强地震分为走滑型地震和断错型地震”的理论 ,确定了各次 (组 )地震的破裂类型。从物理机制上对地震破裂类型与震前前兆异常分布关系进行了讨论 ,由此进一步探讨了 5 .0级以上地震震后趋势预测