基于灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计与实现

通过对灰色GM[1,1]模型的算法改进,将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫链结合,既可以发挥灰色系统预测精确的特点,又可以利用马尔科夫链对准确预测波动性数据的优势。在灰色马尔科夫链模型的算法基础上,采用Visual Studio 2005开发环境,进行灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计。最后利用南方某地区十年来土地利用数据进行系统验证,结果表明,灰色马尔科夫链模型能很大地提高预测的精度和效果,符合实际要求。     

黄土高原西部兰州市郊地貌驱动的土壤水分变化及对植物的影响分析

选择黄土高原造林的主要模式,即梯田、水平沟、鱼鳞坑和台地等,并按照阴阳坡向,栽植树种等的不同,采用中子水分仪每10 d测定土壤水分一次,对各种造林模式下土壤水分进行了长期的监测研究,研究结果表明：在春季植物萌发之前,无植物生长影响的情况下,土壤水分含量阴坡高于阳坡,南山与北山同坡向相比,南山的水分条件要好于北山;4月中旬以后,受植物生长消耗的影响,北山的水分含量大于南山,南山的水分波动则大于北山;鱼鳞坑、水平沟都具有一定的集水保水作用,但这种集水的作用与降水量的大小有关,水平沟由于面积较大,表面覆膜集水效果更好;阴坡梯田由外向内随着距离的增加,水分呈现逐渐增加的趋势,梯田内侧达到最大.     

A study on the early-warning technique concerning debris flow disasters

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.     

桥头堡战略下德宏发展“非大众型旅游”的探讨——以瑞丽市珠宝旅游为例

非大众旅游是发展中国家倡导一种新的旅游形式。本文介绍非大众旅游概念及特点,并根据德宏的区位、社会经济、旅游资源条件,阐述非大众旅游在德宏州发展的可行性。瑞丽市在社会经济、旅游资源、旅游市场等方面具备了发展非大众旅游的条件,但目前缺少相应的政策引导。根据瑞丽市珠宝旅游的特点,提出了发展非大众旅游的相关策略,地方政府可以通过政策引导、制定科学的旅游规划等工作,优先发展非大众旅游,促进旅游持续发展。     

STUDIES ON TERRACES AND RIVER SYSTEM CHANGES OF THE UPPER YELLOW RIVER

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不同地形特征下云南沿边村寨农户生计资产研究

依据英国国际发展署(DFID)提出的可持续生计分析框架为指导,选取与农户生计资产密切相关的评价因子,建立农户生计资本评价指标体系,对云南省25个沿边县域中具有不同地形特征的64个村寨生计资本进行了测算、对比和分析。研究发现,研究区生计资本总体水平偏低,不同地形特征下村寨间生计资本差异性较大,生计资本不平衡,针对不同的生计脆弱性,提出如下讨论:(1)人力资本上,着重加强和巩固教育和培训力度;(2)金融资本、社会资本上,加大农业现代化水平的投资力度,加大加强农业合作组织的建设;(3)物质资本上,建议增加对农业基础设施和信息媒体的建设;(4)在自然资本的脆弱性上,要在可持续性利用的基础上,大力发展循环经济。     

Emergence patterns and microhabitat preference of aquatic dance flies (Empididae; Clinocerinae and Hemerodromiinae) on a longitudinal gradient of barrage lake system

Aquatic dance flies (Empididae; Clinocerinae and Hemerodromiinae) are important components of freshwater assemblages, especially in running waters. They are predators as larvae and adults and thus essential for understanding aquatic food webs. This study was conducted in Plitvice lakes National Park (Croatia) representing a wide variety of freshwater habitats (springs, streams, lakes and tufa barriers). Adults were collected monthly from March 2007 until March 2009 using pyramid-type emergence traps at 13 locations. A total of 3865 specimens comprising 18 species were collected. The dominant genus was Chelifera, while the most abundant species was Hemerodromia unilineata. All species were univoltine except Chelifera precabunda, Chelifera pyrenaica and Chelifera stigmatica that were bivoltine. Considerable differences in composition and structure of aquatic dance flies assemblages were recorded along a longitudinal gradient of studied sites, primarily related to differences in physical and chemical parameters of water. Water temperature was the main factor influencing the timing of emergence. Hemerodromia species preferred variable water temperature throughout the year while the majority of the Chelifera species preferred stable water temperature characteristic of spring sites. Furthermore, discharge affected assemblage composition of aquatic dance flies. The highest abundance of aquatic dance flies was recorded in lotic habitats with fast water current over substrates of moss, gravel and particulate tufa with detritus. These results give a new insight on microhabitat preference and their distribution on unique karstic habitats.     

祁连山南坡灌丛草甸生物量变化与水热因子的关系研究

通过野外调研和室内实验,研究了祁连山南坡灌丛草甸地上生物量的生长季变化,并对地上生物量与水热因子的关系进行了探讨。结果表明：在不同区域群落结构有所不同,覆盖度越低,上层和下层的植物高度越低,丰富度和多样性越小。但均匀度还受草场退化阶段的影响,群落结构相对稳定,植物的均匀度越高;地上生物量的年内变化是单峰曲线,乌鞘岭和门源的地上生物量在7月份最大,祁连和野牛沟的地上生物量在9月份最大;地上生物量的积累与前1月和前2月的气温和降水正相关,与前4月的气温也正相关,并且对气温变化的敏感性大于降水,但与地温和土壤水分的相关性不明显,前1月表层地温较高对地上生物量的积累有积极作用;对于地上生物量积累,日气温、日相对湿度、降水量有直接正向作用,而日最高气温、日最低气温、日水汽压有直接负向作用,5 cm、20 cm地温和0~10 cm、20~30 cm土壤水分也有直接正向作用,而10 cm地温和10~20 cm土壤水分也有直接负向作用。     

Fire Severity,Water Repellency Characteristics and Hydrogeomorphological Changes Following the Christmas 2001 Sydney Forest Fires

Soil water repellency can enhance overland flow and erosion and may be altered by fire. The Christmas 2001 bushfires near Sydney allowed investigation of the relationship between fire severity, water repellency and hydrogeomorphological changes. For two sub-catchments with differences in fire severities in Nattai National Park, south-west of Sydney, this paper considers: (1) the links between fire severity based on SPOT image analysis and ground observation of fire severity and repellency; (2) the textural and organic/minerogenic characteristics of eroded sediment; and (3) erodibility, erosion and deposition of soils in both catchments. Ground surveys show that image analysis reflects well the degree of vegetation consumption by fire, but cannot adequately predict the degree of ground litter consumption, associated soil heating and repellency effects. Fire had varying effects on repellency, leaving it unchanged, destroying it or enhancing it, depending on the soil temperature reached. The main post-fire hydrogeomorphological changes have been widespread erosion and colluvial and alluvial deposition of topsoil in foot-slope locations and river systems, but only localised redistribution of the highly erodible, repellent sandy subsurface layer. The fire did not trigger major geomorphological change in the study area, but fires probably cause important topsoil and nutrient depletion and may also affect water quality.     

澜沧江典型对比流域水力侵蚀快速调查与评价

根据水力侵蚀面蚀和沟蚀两种不同侵蚀形态发生过程尺度空间大小不一的侵蚀特点,确定了研究区面蚀和沟蚀的不同调查评价方法.面蚀的发生过程空间尺度小,选用小区调查方法进行,而沟蚀的发生过程尺度空间大,在典型调查小流域尺度进行全面调查.然后在两种尺度下,分析形成沟蚀和面蚀的影响因素,进行沟蚀程度和面蚀强度分级,并把研究成果展延到澜沧江凤庆河流域和晓街河流域.最后,以在典型调查小流域的研究结果为对照判别依据,判断风庆河和晓街河流域的土壤侵蚀状况.结果显示,澜沧江典型流域的面蚀强度差异不大,沟蚀是造成不同流域土壤侵蚀和沟道输沙差异的主要水力侵蚀形式.