Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.     

Catastrophic debris flows near Machu Picchu village (Aguas Calientes), Peru

Slope movements together with intensive river erosion and the following accumulation are the leading processes in the landscape evolution in the area of Machu Picchu village (former Aguas Calientes), which is located close to the Machu Picchu Sanctuary. Debris flows affect not only the bottoms of valleys or canyons, but also debris fans at the termini of the drainage basins, which are heavily inhabited at some places. The most recent event in the Machu Picchu village occurred in April 2004, but several others were documented in a broader area in the last 50 years. The field inspections at Machu Picchu (May and September 2004; June and September 2005) together with oral testimony revealed the nature and behavior of the debris flow. Machu Picchu village can be assessed as a zone with high landslide risk in relation to its urban development. Despite that, the village recorded a rapid growth (threefold population increase) without urban control within the past two decades. Precipitation, which is the main triggering factor of the debris flows, and natural hazard management of the Machu Picchu village are discussed in this paper.     

Impact of Flood Disasters on Taiwan in the Last Quarter Century

The increasing natural disasters, especially floods during the last quarter century, are raising the economic losses in Taiwan. The most severe hazard in Taiwan is flooding induced by typhoons and storms in summer and autumn. By comparing the rivers around the world, the ones in Taiwan have the steepest slopes, the largest discharge per unit drainage area, and the shortest time of concentrations. Rapid urbanization without proper land uses managements usually worsen the flood problems. Consequently, flood hazards mitigation has become the most essential task for Taiwan to deal with. Although the government keeps improving flood defense structures, the flood damage grows continuously. In this article, possible flood mitigation strategies are identified for coping with complex environmental and social decisions with flood risk involved.     

Geodynamic significance of granitoid magmatism in the southeast Anatolian orogen: geochemical and geochronogical evidence from Göksun–Afşin (Kahramanmaraş, Turkey) region

In southeast Anatolia, there are number of tectonomagmatic units in the Kahramanmaraş–Malatya–Elazığ region that are important in understanding the geological evolution of the southeast Anatolian orogenic belt during the Late Cretaceous. These are (a) metamorphic massifs, (b) ophiolites, (c) ophiolite-related metamorphics and (d) granitoids. The granitoids (i.e. Göksun–Afşin in Kahramanmaraş, Doğanşehir in Malatya and Baskil in Elazığ) intrude all the former units in a NE–SW trending direction. The granitoid in Göksun–Afşin (Kahramanmaraş) region is mainly composed of granodioritic and granitic in composition. The granodiorite contains a number of amphibole-bearing mafic microgranular enclaves of different sizes, whereas the granite is intruded by numerous aplitic dikes. The granitoid rocks have typical calcalkaline geochemical features. The REE- and Ocean ridge granite-normalized multi-element patterns and tectonomagmatic discrimination diagrams, as well as biotite geochemistry suggest that the granitoids were formed in a volcanic arc setting. The K–Ar geochronology of the granitoid rocks yielded ages ranging from 85.76±3.17 to 77.49±1.91 Ma. The field, geochemical and geochronological data suggest the following Late Cretaceous tectonomagmatic scenario for southeast Anatolia. The ophiolites were formed in a suprasubduction zone tectonic setting whereas the ophiolite-related metamorphic rocks formed either during the initiation of intraoceanic subduction or late-thrusting (∼90 Ma). These units were then overthrust by the Malatya–Keban platform during the progressive elimination of the southern Neotethys. Thrusting of the Malatya–Keban platform over the ophiolites and related metamorphic rocks was followed by the intrusion of the granitoids (88–85 Ma) along the Tauride active continental margin in the southern Neotethys.     

小型水电站建设用地地质灾害评估技术研究——以湄尼多河小型水电站为例

现阶段,地质灾害评估技术人员在评估实践中,往往不注重各评估对象的差异性,采取同一评估模式,结果达不到评估的目的。在对小型水电站进行评估时,野外调查的重点,评估过程中所使用的方法以及危险性现状、预测及综合分区评估等与大型水电站、路线工程、矿山开采、民用建筑等工程有所不同。湄尼多河小型水电站工程位于云南省怒江州福贡县马吉乡境内,地质环境条件复杂,评估级别综合为二级。文章以该电站建设用地地质灾害危险性评估为例,对小型水电站建设用地地质灾害危险性评估的方法与理论进行探讨。     

岷江上游干扰岸坡主要表生地质灾害分布特征及成因浅析

岷江上游地处我国著名的南北向地震带的中段，因其特定的地质环境导致区内表生地质灾害极为严重。通过对岷江上游（汶川以上）河段的崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等表生地质灾害的调查研究，其分布沿岷江两岸具有明显的分段特征与河谷地貌分段基本一致，它们形成发展与特定地形地貌、易崩滑或软弱地层、特殊的构造部位、降雨等密切相关。     

Ground deformation of the southern sector of the Aeolian islands volcanic arc from geodetic data

The deformation pattern and the dynamics of the southern sector of the Aeolian archipelago are investigated. A study on the ground deformation, measured over the last 20 years in the trilateration geodetic network between the islands of Vulcano and Lipari, has been conducted. Analysis of the relative displacements and the uniform strain tensor parameters, as well as the comparison between areal dilatation and the vertical variations deduced by precise levelling, allow distinguishing different phases associated both with the regional dynamics and the local volcanic context of the area. These phases, however, appear to be closely interrelated. The analysis of the deformation pattern allows to constrain the predominance of a roughly E–W trending extension and a N–S contraction at a regional scale. This regime is consistent with right-lateral movements along a NW–SE striking fault system.     

Sand harm in Taklimakan Desert highway and sand control

Reputed as a wonderful achievement of the world's highway construction history, the Taklimakan Desert highway is now facing serious sand drift encroachment problems due to its 447- km-long passage of sand sea consisting of crescent dunes, barchan chains, compound transverse dune ridges and complex megadunes. To solve some technical problems in the protection of the highway from sand drift encroachment, desert experts have been conducting the theoretical and applied studies on sand movement laws; causes, severities and time-space differentiation of sand drift damages; and control ways including mechanical, chemical and biological measures. In this paper the authors give an overall summary on the research contents and recent progress in the control of sand drift damages in China and hold that the theoretical research results and practices in the prevention of sand drift encroachment on the cross-desert highway represent a breakthrough and has an epoch-making significance. Since the construction of protective forest along the cross-desert highway requires large amount of ground water, what will be its environmental consequence and whether it can effectively halt sand drift encroachment on the highway forever are the questions to be studied urgently.     

北京市地质灾害状况及制定地质环境管理办法论证

论文从北京市自然地质背景和资源现状出发，根据目前资源开采中存在的地质环境问题、地质灾害程度以及地质环境发展趋势，论述了北京应尽快制定、颁布与实施地质环境管理办法的必要性、迫切性、可行性和相关依据。北京市主要有崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、地面沉降等地质灾害以及矿山环境污染，而针对这些问题开展的监测预报工作还很少。纵观北京市社会、经济及资源的利用与发展，已逐步显现出地质灾害、矿山环境等地质环境问题对社会经济发展带来的诸多困扰。目前地质灾害及地质环境管理的现状都显示出本市地质环境监测与预报工作还很薄弱，相应的法律、法规建设也不健全。因此，制定地质环境管理办法已迫在眉睫，应使地质环境管理有法可依，改善目前地质环境，保证北京市社会经济可持续发展。