基于Markov模型的安宁市土地利用预测

根据安宁市2003～2009年土地利用更新调查数据,利用Markov模型以3年为间隔预测安宁市2012～2021年内的土地利用结构变化。结果表明:2012～2021年安宁市的耕地、园地、林地等农用地大量转变为建设用地;为了保障基本社会生活需求,耕地和园地的农作物生产用地向建设用地转变较少,林地向建设用地转变较多。     

空间相互作用模型中的目的地竞争效应 ——基于中国城市间铁路客流数据的实证研究

目的地竞争模型是空间相互作用领域的重要进展之一,但其有效性尚未得到一致认可,且缺乏基于中国的实证依据。基于中国2010年城市间铁路客流数据,采用目的地竞争模型进行实证分析,并与传统空间相互作用模型相比较,以检验目的地竞争模型在实际应用中的有效性。结果表明：① 空间结构对中国城市间铁路客流存在显著影响,目的地之间存在较强的竞争效应;② 目的地竞争模型的引入显著地减弱了距离衰减参数的空间自相关程度,较大程度上改善了传统空间相互作用模型的距离衰减参数标定偏误问题;③ 既有研究中在区域尺度下对传统空间相互作用模型（即重力模型）参数的标定及实证分析可能会存在偏误,目的地竞争模型这一改进模型具备应用价值。     

Seismic amplitude tomography for crustal attenuation beneath China

Amplitude tomography reconstructs seismic attenuation directly from recorded wave amplitudes. We have applied the tomography to amplitude data reported in the 'Annual Bulletin of Chinese Earthquakes' and interpreted the regionally varying crustal attenuation in terms of tectonics. The seismic amplitudes were originally recorded for determining the M _L and M _S magnitudes. They generally correspond to the maximum amplitudes of the horizontal components of the short-period S waves and intermediate-period Rayleigh waves. Both sets of measurements are sensitive to crustal structure. The peak amplitudes from M _L amplitudes spread spherically with significant dispersion and scattering. M _S amplitudes show cylindrical spreading with little dispersion. Average crustal Q values for attenuation at 1 Hz are 737 and 505 for M _L and M _S, respectively, with substantial regional variations. Frequency dependence in the attenuation is also indicated. Regions with the lowest attenuation (high Q values) are beneath the south China Block, Sichuan Basin, Ordos Platform, the Daxinganling and the Korea Craton. These tend to be tectonically inactive regions, which are generally dominated by intrusive and cratonic rocks in the upper crust. Regions with the highest attenuation (low Q values) are beneath Bohai Basin, Yunnan, eastern Songpan-Ganzi Terrain, margins of the Ordos platform and the Qilian Shan. These are predominantly active basins, grabens and fold belts. The continental margin also highly attenuates both S and surface waves.     

成都市民消费结构与休闲活动关系研究

城市居民消费水平,消费结构会影响其休闲消费能力,消费意愿,消费方式,消费态度和休闲时空结构,文章以成都市7个城区歌舞,茶棋牌,电影及城市公园休闲活动调查为基础,探讨了城市居民消费结构及其变化与休闲活动特征的关系。研究结果表明,城市居民消费结构的改变对歌舞,茶棋牌娱乐活动影响最大。     

吉林省旅游产业发展空间结构研究

旅游产业发展空间结构是旅游产业发展战略和规划的关键与核心。为了科学合理地综合开发旅游资源,建立和发展旅游产业,有必要运用科学的方法和区域经济发展规划的系统理论,研究和分析旅游产业发展的空间结构。这对于制定和实施区域旅游发展规划有着重要的意义。     

基于耗散结构理论的千岛湖旅游地演化过程及机制

从耗散结构理论的视角,认为千岛湖旅游地是以外部自然与社会经济环境为支撑,以吸引物子系统、设施子系统、服务子系统和支持子系统为基础的旅游地耗散结构系统(TDSS)。分析了其演化过程,认为从1959 年新安江水库建成到1981 年“富春江-新安江”被确定为国家首批重点风景名胜区,千岛湖旅游系统处于萌芽状态,各子系统尚未完善成形;1982 年至1994 年为系统形成期,各子系统发展逐渐完善,旅游系统整体效应开始初步显现;从1995 年起,千岛湖旅游地系统进入发展期,各子系统基本上发育成熟完善,子系统之间相互作用明显,系统的整体效应显著;2000 年以后,千岛湖旅游地系统处于优化发展状态,各子系统之间进一步协调发展,旅游系统整体效应大大增强,并推动了旅游地的转型发展。探讨了其演化机制,认为旅游地系统演化的本质是耗散结构的负熵输入过程,系统要素的非线性作用是其演化动力,并通过基于外部环境和政府主导的中心控制的系统他组织与基于供给与需求、人地关系、区域协调以及利益主体平衡四类非线性作用的系统自组织而实现。     

秭归盆地东缘断裂构造觅踪——再论仙女山断裂带北延过长江问题

文章在概略介绍仙女山断裂带所处的大地构造位置、展布特征、组合关系基础上,用详实的材料,逐一分析了荒口—腰店子、腰店子—将军垭、将军垭—卜庄河及尹家湾—黄垭畔、黄垭畔—贾家店长江南北两岸各段的断裂构造形迹特征、力学性质和交切关系。认为仙女山断裂带已北延过长江,并建议对断裂的应力传递方式和可能出现的史前地震进行深入研究。     

Interpretation of subhorizontal crustal reflections by metamorphic and rheologic effects in the eastern part of the Pannonian Basin

The geologic origin of subhorizontal reflections, often observed in crustal seismic sections, was investigated by establishing metamorphic facies and strength of rocks in depth, and correlating these properties to seismic reflection sections from eastern Hungary. Estimation of the depths of metamorphic mineral stability zones utilized the principles developed by Fyfe et al. and known geothermal data of the area. The strength versus depth profile was derived by relating local seismic P -wave interval velocities to Meissner et al. 's activation energy. The results show that the series of subhorizontal reflections, observed in the Pannonian Basin, are a consequence of combined metamorphic and rheologic changes in depths. The synthesis of the integrated data set suggests that the retrograde alteration of the pre-Tertiary basement above the percolation threshold was made possible by the softening effect of shear zones and their water-conducting capacity. The subhorizontal reflections of highest energy, of the consolidated crust below the percolation threshold, originate in the depths of greenschist, amphibolite and granulite metamorphic mineral facies, which were formed in geothermal and pressure conditions similar to those existing today. These results imply the overprint of earlier (Variscan) metamorphic sequences of the crust by more recent retrograde metamorphic processes.