The “Pomici di mercato” Plinian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius: magma chamber processes and eruption dynamics

The Pomici di Mercato (PdM, 8,010 ± 40 a), also known in the literature as Pomici Gemelle or Pomici di Ottaviano, is one of the oldest Plinian eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius. This eruption occurred after the longest (7 ka) quiescence period of the volcano and was followed by more than 4 ka of repose. The erupted magma is phonolitic in composition. All the products have very low phenocrysts content (less than 3%) and show evidence of mineralogical disequilibria. They contain K-feldspar ± clinopyroxene (salite and diopside) ± plagioclase ± garnet ± biotite ± amphibole ± apatite ± Fe-Ti oxides. Pumice fragments collected at different stratigraphic heights are slightly less evolved and more enriched in radiogenic Sr composition upsection. The glass composition is fairly homogeneous in single pumice fragment and among pumice fragments from different layers. Glass separated from pumice fragments collected at different stratigraphic heights is homogeneous in the Sr-isotope composition (around a value of 0.70717). Glass is in isotopic equilibrium with salite throughout the entire sequence and with diopside at the base of the sequence. Diopside becomes more radiogenic upsection, reaching a value of 0.707458 ± 7, whereas feldspar is consistently slightly less radiogenic than glass. Nd-isotope composition is fairly uniform (ca. 0.51247) through the whole sequence. The isotopic disequilibria among glass, feldspar and diopside, together with the homogeneous isotopic composition of pumice glass in equilibrium with salite, and the mineralogical disequilibria between plagioclase and K-feldspar, imply that most of the diopside and plagioclase crystals are xenocrysts incorporated into the phonolitic magma during residence in a magma chamber and/or during ascent towards the surface. The PdM Tephra are compositionally and isotopically similar to the phonolitic, first-erupted products of the subsequent Pomici di Avellino Plinian eruption. On the basis of this similarity, we suggest that the magma feeding both eruptions resulted from the tapping of a unique magma chamber. Prior to the PdM eruption, this chamber was formed by a large and homogeneous phonolitic magma body. After the PdM eruption, as a consequence of new arrivals of more radiogenic in Sr, less-differentiated magma batches, the magma chamber progressively developed a slightly stratified phonolitic uppermost portion, capping a tephriphonolitic layer, both emitted during the subsequent Pomici di Avellino eruption.     

Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius

Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available.     

The proximal marine record of Somma–Vesuvius volcanic activity in the Naples and Salerno bays,Eastern Tyrrhenian Sea,during the last 3 kyrs

The tephrostratigraphic analysis of nine gravity cores acquired on the continental shelf of the Naples and Salerno bays documents the proximal record of Somma–Vesuvius volcanic activity during the latest Holocene (last 3 kyrs). Five tephra layers from southern Naples Bay and three tephra layers from northern Salerno Bay were recognised in cores and their sedimentologic structures, textural parameters, stratigraphy and major and trace-element composition described.     

Ash fallout scenarios at Vesuvius: Numerical simulations and implications for hazard assessment

Volcanic ash fallout subsequent to a possible renewal of the Vesuvius activity represents a serious threat to the highly urbanized area around the volcano. In order to assess the relative hazard we consider three different possible scenarios such as those following Plinian, Sub-Plinian, and violent Strombolian eruptions. Reference eruptions for each scenario are similar to the 79 AD (Pompeii), the 1631 AD (or 472 AD) and the 1944 AD Vesuvius events, respectively. Fallout deposits for the first two scenarios are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the 2D advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation. In contrast, fallout following a violent Strombolian event is modeled by means of FALL3D, a numerical model based on the solution of the full 3D advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation which is valid also within the atmospheric boundary layer. Inputs for models are total erupted mass, eruption column height, bulk grain-size, bulk component distribution, and a statistical set of wind profiles obtained by the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis. We computed ground load probability maps for different ash loadings. In the case of a Sub-Plinian scenario, the most representative tephra loading maps in 16 cardinal directions were also calculated. The probability maps obtained for the different scenarios are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies.     

Sources of ground movement at Vesuvius before the AD 79 eruption: Evidence from contemporary accounts and archaeological studies

Historical sources have recorded earthquake shocks, their effects and difficulties that local inhabitants experienced before the AD 79 Pompeii eruption. Archaeological studies pointed out the effects of such seismicity, and have also evidenced that several water crises were occurring at Pompeii in that period. Indeed numerous sources show that, at the time of eruption, and probably some time before, the civic aqueduct, having ceased to be supplied by the regional one, was out of order and that a new one was being built. Since Roman aqueducts were usually built with a recommended minimum mean slope of 20 cm/km and Pompeii's aqueduct sloped from the nearby Apennines toward the town, this slope could have been easily cancelled by uplift that occurred in the area even if this was only moderate.     

Temporal evolution of the Roccamonfina volcanic complex (Pleistocene), Central Italy

The Roccamonfina volcanic complex (RVC), in southern Italy, is an Early to Middle Pleistocene stratovolcano sharing temporal and morphological characteristics with the Somma–Vesuvius and the Alban Hills; both being associated with high volcanic hazard for the cities of Naples and Rome, respectively. The RVC is important for the understanding of volcanic evolution in the Roman and Campanian volcanic provinces. We report a comprehensive study of its evolution based on morphological, geochemical and K–Ar geochronological data.     

Limestone assimilation by basaltic magmas: an experimental re-assessment and application to Italian volcanoes

The results of an experimental study of limestone assimilation by hydrated basaltic magmas in the range 1,050–1,150°C, 0.1–500 MPa are reported. Alkali basalts doped with up to 19 wt% of Ca, Mg-carbonates were equilibrated in internally heated pressure vessels and the resulting phase relationships are described. The major effects of carbonate incorporation are: (1) generation of CO₂-rich fluid phases; (2) change in liquidus phase equilibria; the crystallization of Ca-rich clinopyroxene is favored and the other phases (e.g. olivine, plagioclase), present in the absence of carbonate assimilation, are consumed. As a consequence of the massive clinopyroxene crystallization, the residual melt is strongly silica-depleted and becomes nepheline-normative. Compositional and mineralogical evolutions observed in Mt. Vesuvius eruptive products match those documented in our experiments with added carbonates, suggesting the possibility that carbonate assimilation increased during the last 25 ka of activity. In Central-Southern Italy, carbonate assimilation at shallow levels probably superimposes on deeper source heterogeneities.     

Magma contamination by direct wall rock interaction: constraints from xenoliths from the walls of a carbonate-hosted magma chamber (Vesuvius 1944 eruption)

During the 1944 eruption of Vesuvius different types of xenoliths were ejected. They represent fragments of the walls of a low volume (<0.5 km³) shallow (3–4 km depth) magma chamber. The study of these xenoliths enables us to estimate the amount of contamination occurring at the boundary of a high-T alkaline magma chamber hosted in carbonate rocks. The process of contamination of the magma by carbonates can be modelled, using isotopic and chemical data, as a mixing between magma and marbles. Mass exchanges occur at the boundary between the crystallizing magma and marble wall rocks, where endoskarn forms. The contamination of the solidification front of the chamber is very limited. The solidification front and the skarn shell effectively isolate the interior of the magma chamber from new inputs of contaminants from the carbonate wall rocks. Therefore, the main volume of magma, hosted in the magma chamber, did not undergo any significant mass exchange with the wall rocks.     

Simulation of syn-eruptive floods in the circumvesuvian plain (southern Italy)

During explosive eruptions the deposition of fine-grained volcanic ash fallout reduces soil permeability, favouring runoff of meteoric water and thus increasing the occurrence of catastrophic floods. A fully dynamic, two-dimensional model was used to simulate flooding scenarios in the Vesuvian area following an explosive volcanic eruption. The highest risk occurs in the catchment area of the Acerra-Nola Plain N and NE of Vesuvius. This plain has a population of 70,000 living in low-lying areas. This catchment area is vulnerable to ash fall because it lies downwind of the dominant synoptic circulation and it lacks a natural outflow toward the sea. Our numerical simulations predict dangerous scenarios, even in quiescent periods, during extreme rain events (return periods of 200 years have been considered), and a significant increase in the extent of the flooded areas due to renewed volcanic activity. Based on these simulations a hazard zonation has been proposed. Editorial responsibility: A Woods