新疆DOGRAFS_3km夏季预报试验与分析

为了提升新疆区域数值天气预报模式的精细化预报能力,基于目前业务应用的沙漠绿洲戈壁区域同化预报系统(Desert Oasis Gobi Regional Assimilation Forecast System,简称DOGRAFS),搭建了DOGRAFS_3 km运行系统,将2016年7月作为预报检验月份,对比分析了目前业务化运行的DOGRAFS_9 km与新搭建的DOGRAFS_3 km系统的短期、短临预报效果,并针对7月31日—8月2日的降水过程进行对比。结果表明:(1)3 km分辨率系统的地面温度、风基本气象要素的预报效果整体要优于9 km系统;(2)从不同层次上的位势高度、温度、风要素预报结果看,3 km系统在925、850、700、500 h Pa预报效果优于9 km系统,300 h Pa和200 h Pa略差于9 km系统;(3)降水检验看,3 km分辨率系统在降水时段、落区和量级等方面的效果均好于9 km系统,尤其是对中量和大量级降水的预报,3 km分辨率系统与9 km系统的降水预报能力均有限。(4)通过用加密自动站的降水量监测值检验分析得知,对于典型降水过程的的过程降水落区、24 h降水落区、以及6 h降水落区的预报,3 km分辨率系统的预报效果更好。综合2016年夏季代表月份的预报以及一次强降水过程的对比分析结果,DOGRAFS_3 km系统在夏季的整体预报性能优于DOGRAFS_9 km,推进DOGRAFS_3 km高分辨率系统建设尤为必要。     

马氏珠母贝两个与生长性状相关QTL 的验证

利用2个马氏珠母贝群体对遗传连锁图谱已经定位的,与马氏珠母贝生长性状相关的数量性状位点(Quantitative trait locus,QTL)中的两个进行验证。结果显示:m59标记在2个群体中与壳高、壳长、壳宽和总重具有显著的相关性(P0.05),其GT基因型的个体壳高、壳长、壳宽和总重均显著高于GG基因型的个体;154165标记在湛江群体中与壳高具有显著相关性(P0.05),而在深圳群体中与壳宽具有显著相关性(P0.05);表明QTL标记m59在2个群体中是共享QTL,而154165标记在群体中是特异QTL。基于这两个QTL在这2个群体中分别构建二倍型,发现在湛江群体中二倍型C_1(AAGT)和深圳群体中D_1(AGGT)型和D_2(AAGT)型对马氏珠母贝生长最为有利,可作为优先的基因型组合。     

中央气象台短期降雨预报水平初步分析

该文利用1988～1993年资料，对中央气象台降雨预报水平状况进行了初步分析。结果表明:最近6年，中央气象台的有雨预报、小雨预报、中雨预报和等级综合预报的准确率和技巧水平均有不同程度的提高；暴雨和大暴雨两个等级的落点预报的准确率均超过气候概率，具有正技巧（技巧评分＞0），但技巧水平提高不明显。     

VERIFICATION TEST OF THE PHYSICAL MODEL IN WUHAN FOR THE GEZHOUBA DAM REGION WITH RESPECT TO ITS FIRST STAGE CONSTRUCTION IN OPERATION ── A SUMMARY REPORT

I. INTRODUCTIONThe Gezhouba Project is located on the main stem of the Yangtze River with a total installed capacity of 2750 MW. The general layout of the project is shown in Fig. l--a. The drainage area upstream of the project is 1 million sq. km with an…     

RATIONAL BASIS FOR SUSPENDED SEDIMENT MODELING

This paper presents a rational basis to model the transport of suspended sediment. The loose-boundary condition for 3D models and the adjustment coefficients for both the depth-integrated 2D and laterally integrated 1D models are treated comprehensively. A combination of Dirichlet and Neumann conditions is proposed as the loose-boundary condition. The adjustment coefficient for 2D models is obtained on the basis of the proposed boundary condition and analytical solutions developed for some simple cases of non-equilibrium transport of sediment in uniform flows. The adjustment coefficient for 1D models for natural rivers is further obtained from lateral integration. Comparisons with analytical solutions and a considerable amount of laboratory and prototype data show that mathematical models developed along the proposed line of attack would well simulate the transport of suspended sediment in practical problems.     

东亚地区气象参数卫星遥感反演理论和方法研究I:ISPRM和SRRM

文中对10a来改进的同步物理反演方法（ISPRM）实践与发展进行了总结。在不违背先验信息和卫星测值之间独立的原则下,所做的改进都是针对这类非适定反演问题的欠定性（under－determinedness）进行的。由适定反演理论知道,正演是反演的基础,又是卫星辐射率测值输入和反演结果输出之间的桥梁。为了获得好的正演,就必须竭尽可能充分利用一切可以使用的先验信息,把非适定反演问题转化成适定的反演问题,从而通过Ridge回归或Bayes反演过程,把先验信息、理论模拟信息和卫星探测信息三者最佳地结合起来,以最大限度减少这类反演问题的欠定性对数值解的影响。     

A new predictive formula for inception of regular wave breaking

Efforts are made to enhance the predictive formula for the inception of wave breaking. To achieve success, the existing formulas are extensively reviewed. They are categorized into four types, i.e., the McCowan type, the Miche type, the Goda type and the Munk type. The inherent relations among the different types are then exploited. The differences among each formula within a group are also discussed. Four representative formulas from the different types are chosen to compare with the measured data for a total number of 1193 cases reported in literatures. It is shown that Goda's and Ostendorf and Madsen's formulas are advantageous in general among the selected ones. Goda's formula, however, is found to be inaccurate as the beach slope becomes steeper than 1/10. Ostendorf and Madsen's formula is fairly good even for cases of very steep slopes, but its accuracy for the cases of ordinary slopes is not as good as Goda's. A new predictive formula for the inception of wave breaking is proposed. The unique index, defined by ψ′_b = (1.21 − 3.30λ_b)(1.48 − 0.54γ_b)ψ_b, where ψ_b = gH_b/C_b², H_b is the breaking wave height, C_b is the breaking wave celerity, λ_b is the breaking wave steepness, γ_b is the relative breaking wave height, and g is the gravity acceleration, is introduced. The incipient condition of wave breaking is then given by ψ′_b = 0.69. This formula is a significant improvement to the existing ones in terms of the accuracy. In addition, it is a local relation. Further verification shows that the proposed formula performs similarly well when applied to the field and to the waves over permeable bed.     

BCC_CSM1.1m模式对福建前汛期降水预测的误差订正

采用1991—2017年BCC_CSM1.1m季节预测模式的月降水预测数据及福建省前汛期（4—6月）66个国家气象站降水资料,利用距平相关系数(ACC)、时间相关系数(TCC)、平均方差技巧评分(MSSS)和趋势异常综合评分(Ps)等评估方法,检验评估了提前0、1、2和5个月模式对福建省前汛期降水的预测能力。采用系统偏差、一元线性回归和EOF-相似误差（EOFL和EOFNL）等4种统计方法对回报结果进行订正,并进行效果检验。BCC_CSM1.1m在不同起报时间对福建省前汛期降水的预测均能抓住降水的前两个主模态：全省一致和南北反向分布的空间特征,但预测的气候平均值较实况存在负偏差。模式在不同起报时间对前汛期降水预测的TCC高技巧区主要位于福建省北部,ACC技巧和Ps评分存在比较大的年际差异,负系统偏差的存在使得MSSS技巧不高。经订正后,模式的预测能力得到明显提升。系统偏差、线性回归、EOF相似误差线性和非线性订正方法提前2个月起报的2011—2017年平均Ps评分分别提高5.9、3.5、6.7和7.8分;不同起报时间线性回归订正的2011—2017年平均ACC技巧分别提高0.02、0.21、0.12和0.11;上述4种方法订正的MSSS评分均有了显著提高,其中系统偏差和线性回归订正后达正技巧。综合而言,线性回归订正较其他3种订正方法表现出更为稳定的订正技巧。     

Introducing top-down methods in assessing compliance with the Kyoto Protocol

Abstract

The Kyoto Protocol has an ambitious reporting and review system to assess Parties' compliance with their emission commitments. It is based on a ‘bottom-up’ approach; that is, each Party is required to submit detailed inventories of emissions and removals. This requires considerable resources and may still not detect all important cases of non-compliance. We consider the case for introducing ‘top-down’ methods; that is, independent inverse modelling methods that calculate probable emissions using measured concentrations of gases in the atmosphere and meteorological models. We argue that the top-down methods are at present too inaccurate, too cumbersome, and politically too problematic to serve as independent alternatives to the reported emission inventories for assessing compliance, although they could be useful in monitoring the global success of the protocol. We conclude that these top-down approaches may supplement the traditional emission inventories, in particular those dealing with fluorinated gases, thereby providing input for improving the emission inventory methods.     

CHIM法在双沟金矿深部找矿中应用及效果

双沟金矿常规找矿方法难有突破。用地电化学勘查法(CHIM)对矿区深部开展隐伏矿预测,共圈定金异常4个,经钻探工程验证,深部已发现金矿脉。