成都地面风速年极值的4种分布函数拟合结果的比较

分别用Webukk分布，Gumbel分布，Pearson Ⅲ分布和对数正态分布拟合成都1993－1997年间地面风速年极大值的渐近分布，其结果表明Gumbel分布和对数正态分布拟合效果最好。     

Potential benefits of increased application of water to paddy fields in Taiwan

The potential benefits of increased application of water to paddy fields in Taiwan are investigated in this paper. A conceptual model is used to represent the hydrological system of the paddy field. A technique is presented to estimate the parameters of the model. Field experiments also are performed for parameter estimation and model verification. The simulated results are in good agreement with the observed during model verification. With parameters estimated from the field data, the model is used to simulate the effects of applying water beyond current practice. The simulation results show that the downward percolation increases when the irrigation water increases. However, the percolation reaches a capacity rate no matter how large the amount of water applied. This phenomenon results from the existence of a hard layer below the paddy field. The effects of raising the height of levees around paddy fields are also studied. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional estimation variances: An empirical approach

One of the tasks routinely carried out by geostatisticians is the evaluation of global mining reserves corresponding to a given cutoff grade and size of selective mining units. A long with these recovery figures, the geostatistician generally provides an assessment of the global estimation variance, which represents the precision of the overall average grade estimate, when no cutoff is applied. Such a global estimation variance is of limited interest for evaluating mining projects; what is required is the reliability of the estimate of recovered reserves or, in other words, the conditional estimation variance. Unfortunately, classical linear geostatistical methods fail to provide an easy way to estimate this variance. Through the use of simulated deposits (representing various types of regionalization)the present paper reviews and discusses the effects of changes in cutoff grade and selective mining unit size on the conditional estimation variance. It is shown that, when the cutoff grade is applied to a pointsupport (sample-size)distribution, the conditional estimation variance appears to be readily accessible by classical formulas, once the conditional semivariogram is known. However, the evaluation of the conditional estimation variance seems to be less straightforward for the general case when a cutoff is applied to the average grade distribution of selective mining units. Empirical approximation formulas for the conditional estimation variance are tentatively proposed, and their performance in the case of the simulated deposits is shown. The limitations of these approximations are discussed, and possible ways of formalizing the problem suggested.     

日像仪的电磁干扰分析

讨论了日像仪的干扰容限，列出了干扰源分布，估算出干扰测试仪灵敏度。计算了同步卫星干扰及干扰时间预测，也分析了中低轨道卫星干扰问题。对移动通信基站产生的干扰作了传播分析、计算，对脉冲雷达干扰作了谱分析及保守计算。     

Estimation of areal specific yield in sands using the central limit theorem

A new approach is demonstrated that permits a reliable estimate of specific yield using published values of the van Genuchten water retention parameters and effective grain sizes and the measured effective grain sizes of soil samples. The specific yield distribution of the soil texture was computed using the published values of the van Genuchten parameters. The specific yield values and the published values of effective grain sizes were then used to construct a specific yield–effective grain size curve, which estimates the ‘point’ specific yield of the soil samples. Applying the central limit theorem, the point specific yields could be transformed into an ‘areal’ specific yield for a study area. Compared with other commonly used approaches, the present procedure requires relatively low computational efforts and readily obtainable data. It is cost effective and does not depend on soil texture classification. More importantly, it incorporates the depth to water table and the variations in grain sizes inherent in natural soil conditions in the estimation. The approach developed was applied for estimating the specific yield of an unconfined sandy aquifer created by land reclamation in the equatorial region. The values obtained were compared with field measurements and the typical ranges of specific yield from the literature. Instead of a single estimate of the specific yield, the method yields a confidence interval with a high confidence level of 95% and with a narrower range than the typical ranges from the literature. In addition, the estimated values are close to the field measurements; hence, the procedure provides a cost‐effective alternative to field measurement. The applicability of the present approach could be extended to sites with heterogeneity in the horizontal direction. Nevertheless, the applicability of the present approach for layered soil profiles requires further evaluations. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying spatial concentrations of surnames

Surnames (family names) have been overlooked as a valuable source of spatially referenced population data. Presented here is a methodology, based on kernel density estimation, which is used to identify the areas of Great Britain where any surname is most concentrated. This not only indicates a surname's geographic origin in the country but also its current spatial extent and spatial relationship with other surnames and place names. We argue that such analysis can provide baseline and change measures, and an empirical basis to change forecasting. Such analysis offers valuable insights into national, regional and local changes in population structure, and testimony to the relevance of GIScience to population genetics, historical geography and genealogy.     

基于Fisher判别分析法的岩溶塌陷预测

为了更准确地预测岩溶塌陷,基于Fisher判别分析法,首先选择内聚力、内摩擦角、覆盖层厚度、覆盖层厚度减高水位埋深、覆盖层厚度减低水位埋深5个最主要的影响因素作为判别因子;接着以桂林市20组岩溶塌陷案例为学习样本进行计算,建立相应的Fisher线性判别函数;然后利用回代估计法对上述20组样本的预测结果进行逐一检验,其正确率为100%;随后将上述预测结果与前人运用逐步判别、神经网络判别等方法得到的结果进行比较分析,认为Fisher判别分析法具有不需进行模型和参数的选择以及不受人为因素的影响等优点;最后将建立的Fisher线性判别函数用于另外的10组实际案例进行预测分析,预测结果与实际情况完全吻合。结果表明:用Fisher判别分析法进行岩溶塌陷预测,简易方便,正确率高,实用性好;该方法是岩溶塌陷预测的一种新方法。     

The Three Results of Sound Velocity Variance in Sediments During Controlled Stress-strain Testing from the South China Sea

Sound velocity in each type of seafloor sediment from the South China Sea varies with the development of strain in the controlled stress-strain course. Experiments show that there may exist three cases for the maximum sound velocity: (1) it appears at the stress peak; (2) it appears in the phase of no load; and (3) it appears at the end of the strain course. These results are related to physical-mechanical properties and structure of sediments.     

Intensity measures for the seismic response of pile foundations

In this study the efficacy of various ground motion intensity measures for the seismic response of pile foundations embedded in liquefiable and non-liquefiable soils is investigated. A soil-pile-structure model consisting of a two-layer soil deposit with a single pile and a single degree-of-freedom superstructure is used in a parametric study to determine the salient features of the seismic response of the soil-pile-structure system. A suite of ground motion records scaled to various levels of intensity are used to investigate the full range of pile behaviour, from elastic response to failure. Various intensity measures are used to inspect their efficiency in predicting the seismic demand on the pile foundation for a given level of ground motion intensity. It is found that velocity-based intensity measures are the most efficient in predicting the pile response, which is measured in terms of maximum curvature or pile-head displacement. In particular, velocity spectrum intensity (VSI), which represents the integral of the pseudo-velocity spectrum over a wide period range, is found to be the most efficient intensity measure in predicting the seismic demands on the pile foundation. VSI is also found to be a sufficient intensity measure with respect to earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance, and epsilon, and has a good predictability, thus making it a prime candidate for use in seismic response analysis of pile foundations.