Conditioning mean steady state flow on hydraulic head and conductivity through geostatistical inversion

Nonlocal moment equations allow one to render deterministically optimum predictions of flow in randomly heterogeneous media and to assess predictive uncertainty conditional on measured values of medium properties. We present a geostatistical inverse algorithm for steady-state flow that makes it possible to further condition such predictions and assessments on measured values of hydraulic head (and/or flux). Our algorithm is based on recursive finite-element approximations of exact first and second conditional moment equations. Hydraulic conductivity is parameterized via universal kriging based on unknown values at pilot points and (optionally) measured values at other discrete locations. Optimum unbiased inverse estimates of natural log hydraulic conductivity, head and flux are obtained by minimizing a residual criterion using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. We illustrate the method for superimposed mean uniform and convergent flows in a bounded two-dimensional domain. Our examples illustrate how conductivity and head data act separately or jointly to reduce parameter estimation errors and model predictive uncertainty.This work is supported in part by NSF/ITR Grant EAR-0110289. The first author was additionally supported by scholarships from CONACYT and Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas of Mexico. Additional support was provided by the European Commission under Contract EVK1-CT-1999-00041 (W-SAHaRA-Stochastic Analysis of Well Head Protection and Risk Assessment).     

滇西北保山核桃坪铅锌矿床成矿流体来源的同位素地球化学证据

滇西北核桃坪铅锌矿是保山地块内沿澜沧江断裂带发育的一个大型铅锌多金属矿床,矿体严格受近SN向的断裂带及层间破碎带控制,赋存于上寒武统核桃坪组和沙河厂组大理岩化灰岩及矽卡岩中。文章在分析矿床地质特征的基础上,通过对V1矿体的氢、氧、碳、硫、硅和铅同位素地球化学的示踪研究,探讨了成矿溶液中水、碳、硅、硫和铅的来源以及成矿流体的演化问题。研究表明,V1矿体中矿石的石英δ18O水值变化范围为6·1‰~7·6‰,平均为6·7‰,其δDV-SMOW值变化范围为-100‰~-108‰,平均为-104‰,说明成矿流体主要来自深部岩浆分异水,并在后期成矿作用过程中有地层建造水和大气降水的加入;矿石中方解石的δ13CV-PDB和δ18O水值分别为-6·6‰~-5·9‰和5·0‰~5·2‰,反映成矿流体的碳、氧具有深部流体与围岩发生交代反应的特征。硅、硫和铅同位素具深部岩浆或地幔来源的特点,但遭受后期壳源物质的混染。据此提出该矿床是与深部岩浆热液或幔源流体贯入有关的构造热液脉型矿床,其成矿作用受控于深部过程的驱动和控制,可为指导地质找矿提供依据。     

Post-solidification cooling and the age of Io's lava flows

The modeling of thermal emission from active lava flows must account for the cooling of the lava after solidification. Models of lava cooling applied to data collected by the Galileo spacecraft have, until now, not taken this into consideration. This is a flaw as lava flows on Io are thought to be relatively thin with a range in thickness from ∼1 to 13 m. Once a flow is completely solidified (a rapid process on a geological time scale), the surface cools faster than the surface of a partially molten flow. Cooling via the base of the lava flow is also important and accelerates the solidification of the flow compared to the rate for the ‘semi-infinite’ approximation (which is only valid for very deep lava bodies). We introduce a new model which incorporates the solidification and basal cooling features. This model gives a superior reproduction of the cooling of the 1997 Pillan lava flows on Io observed by the Galileo spacecraft. We also use the new model to determine what observations are necessary to constrain lava emplacement style at Loki Patera. Flows exhibit different cooling profiles from that expected from a lava lake. We model cooling with a finite-element code and make quantitative predictions for the behavior of lava flows and other lava bodies that can be tested against observations both on Io and Earth. For example, a 10-m-thick ultramafic flow, like those emplaced at Pillan Patera in 1997, solidifies in ∼450 days (at which point the surface temperature has cooled to ∼280 K) and takes another 390 days to cool to 249 K. Observations over a sufficient period of time reveal divergent cooling trends for different lava bodies [examples: lava flows and lava lakes have different cooling trends after the flow has solidified (flows cool faster)]. Thin flows solidify and cool faster than flows of greater thickness. The model can therefore be used as a diagnostic tool for constraining possible emplacement mechanisms and compositions of bodies of lava in remote-sensing data.     

环抱式防波堤口门航道横流三维特性研究

环抱式防波堤口门易出现较大横流,且三维特性明显。针对连云港主港区深水航道,建立三维潮流数学模型,并用现场航槽实测资料进行验证,在此基础上计算分析了不同潮差条件下口门段进港航道横流的三维特性。研究结果表明:最大横流约出现在高潮位前1.5 h,自表层至底层相继出现,且表、底层出现时刻仅相差0.5 h;因航道边坡较小,最大横流时未见水流分离现象,航槽底部没有反向流;各层最大横流值均与涨潮潮差有关,且相关程度高;航道内最大横流垂向分布梯度随潮差增加略有增大。     

影响北京的一例沙尘天气过程的起沙沉降及输送路径分析

本文选取2012年4月27-28日影响北京的一次沙尘天气过程进行分析,发现在本次过程中,沙源地区的沙尘暴主要发生在地面冷锋和500 hPa槽后,在近地层强烈的感热加热与中低层冷平流的共同作用下,形成了不稳定层结及深厚的混合层,最高可达600 hPa,是沙尘天气能够影响下游地区的重要条件。本文还通过分析等熵混合层厚度变化及其平流过程来追踪沙尘天气的输送路径和定位沉降地,发现本次过程有两种传输路径,一种是沿辽宁北部向东而后转向东北方向,主要沿等熵混合层平流向下游移动,之后随着等熵混合层的接地沉降到近地层,该路径影响高度较高;另一种是沿辽宁南部向东南方向移动,混合层平流较清楚,但沉降时与东北路径明显不同,在辽东半岛东部地面辐散气流及下沉运动的作用下发生沉降,并随冷锋后冷高压南侧的东风回流向西输送影响北京地区。另外,由于混合层之上的稳定层明显下压,使沙尘输送高度偏低。运用HYSPLIT模式模拟的前、后向轨迹证实了上述两种输送路径,表明北京的扬沙天气是由东风回流造成的。     

舟曲泥石流桩林拦挡结构抗冲压极限分析

以舟曲泥石流灾害防治工程为背景,基于弹塑性有限差分方法计算分析了舟曲泥石流桩林拦挡结构的极限抗冲压能力。针对两种桩林拦挡结构设计方案,采用增量加载的数值计算方法确定了拦挡结构的侧向极限抗冲压力,并与规范建议的泥石流冲击力经验公式计算结果进行了校核。计算结果显示,舟曲泥石流桩林拦挡结构的侧向极限抗冲压力均大于经验公式计算...     

A level-set corrector to an adaptive multiscale permeability prediction

We consider the inverse problem of permeability estimation for two-phase porous-media flow. The novel approach is based on regularization by zonation, where the geometry and size of the regions are chosen adaptively during the optimization procedure. To achieve this, we have utilized level-set functions to represent the permeability. The available data are sparsely distributed in space; hence, it is reasonable to confine the estimation to coarse-scale structures. The level-set approach is able to alter the boundaries between regions of different permeability without strict restrictions on their shape; however, when the data are sparse, a reasonable initial guess for the permeability is required. For this task, we use adaptive multiscale permeability estimation, which has the potential of identifying main permeability variations. These are described by a piecewise constant function, where the constant values are attained on rectangular zones. In the current work, we develop a level-set corrector strategy, assuming adaptive multiscale permeability estimation as a predictor.     

东天山黄山西含铜镍矿镁铁-超镁铁岩体岩浆地幔源区特征研究

新疆黄山-镜儿泉铜镍成矿带位于中亚造山带东天山晚古生代造山带,铜镍总储量达百万吨,是我国仅次于金川硫化物矿床的铜镍矿基地.黄山西铜镍矿床是该成矿带内一个大型矿床,Cu平均品位是0.31％,总储量18.8×104t,Ni平均品位是0.49％,总储量32×104t.黄山西岩体岩石地球化学特征与塔里木大火成岩省镁铁-超镁铁侵入岩和玄武岩存在明显差异;较之塔里木大火成岩省镁铁-超镁铁岩体( 269～ 274Ma),黄山-镜儿泉铜镍成矿带镁铁-超镁铁岩体的形成更早(274～298Ma);此外,成矿带内并没有早二叠溢流玄武岩大量出露.黄山西岩体各岩相的MORB标准化微量元素蛛网图显示明显的Nb、Ta、Ti负异常,(87Sr/86Sr)269Ma值较低(0.7034～0.7037),而εNd(269Ma)较高(5.14～ 7.14),这些地球化学特征难以用地壳混染来解释,而显示其原始岩浆来自于交代地幔的部分熔融,表明原始岩浆可能形成于活动大陆边缘.然而,黄山西岩体的岩相学特征与阿拉斯加型岩体存在差别,因此,不能排除交代地幔的部分熔融发生于碰撞造山后的伸展阶段的可能,软流圈的上涌可能起到重要作用.     

Heat flow and crustal thermal structure in the Late Archaean Closepet Granite batholith,south India

The Late Archaean Closepet Granite batholith in south India is exposed at different crustal levels grading from greenschist facies in the north through amphibolite and granulite facies in the south along a ∼400 km long segment in the Dharwar craton. Two areas, Pavagada and Magadi, located in the Main Mass of the batholith, best represent the granitoid of the greenschist and amphibolite facies crustal levels respectively. Heat flow estimates of 38 mW m⁻² from Pavagada and 25 mW m⁻² from Magadi have been obtained through measurements in deep (430 and 445 m) and carefully sited boreholes. Measurements made in four boreholes of opportunity in Pavagada area yield a mean heat flow of 39 ± 4 (s.d.) mW m⁻², which is in good agreement with the estimate from deep borehole. The study, therefore, demonstrates a clear-cut heat flow variation concomitant with the crustal levels exposed in the two areas. The mean heat production estimates for the greenschist facies and amphibolite facies layers constituting the Main Mass of the batholith are 2.9 and 1.8 μW m⁻³, respectively. The enhanced heat flow in the Pavagada area is consistent with the occurrence of a radioelement-enriched 2-km-thick greenschist facies layer granitoid overlying the granitoid of the amphibolite facies layer which is twice as thick as represented in the Magadi area. The crustal heat production models indicate similar mantle heat flow estimates in the range 12–14 mW m⁻², consistent with the other parts of the greenstone-granite-gneiss terrain of the Dharwar craton.     

东北地区城市群组的格局、过程及城市流强度

根据城市群、城市组群及城市群组的内涵指出中国东北地区目前存在辽中南、吉林中部、哈大齐三个城市群组。按照其形成发展过程和现状特征,辽中南已经发育成为成熟的城市群,而吉林中部和哈大齐尚处于城市群发育的中间阶段,即城市组群阶段,从而在东北地区形成了"一群二组"的空间结构框架。通过对东北地区城市群组外向功能量和城市流强度的计算发现,群组内部尚未出现主要外向服务部门区位熵均大于1的城市,与国内发达城市群的发展水平相距较远。未来发展应该围绕城市群组的组织结构、网络化发展模式、职能分工与功能互补、发展关系协调等方面进一步调控和优化。