近40 a石河子地区气候暖湿化特征分析

分析了40 a气温、降水及干旱指数的变化特征,结果表明:(1)近40 a石河子地区平均温度以0.3℃/10 a趋势上升,和全疆变化一致;该地区年、冬季、夏季气温总体呈上升趋势,20世纪60~70年代年、冬季、夏季气温呈降低的趋势,80~90年代气温呈增加趋势,80年代冬季升温比夏季升温明显,而90年代夏季升温比冬季明显。(2)降水总体趋势上升,降水增长率为12.5 mm/10 a,90年代平均降水比30 a均值偏多20.8%。(3)年平均干旱指数总体呈下降趋势,但趋势不明显,其减少率为-0.3/10 a。(4)石河子地区的温度、降水及干旱指数用M ann-kendall方法检验分别在不同年份发生了不同程度的突变。结果指出,石河子地区气候正在趋于暖、湿化,这对于本区绿洲的发展具有有利的一面。     

ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ON STRONG MEIYU IN SHANGHAI

1 INTRODUCTIONWith the methods of correlation and compositeanalyses,Ju et al.[1] discussed the relationship betweenlow-frequency oscillation in the summer monsoonregion in East Asia and droughts/floods in the middleand lower reaches of the Yangtze River and found thatstrong monsoon years usually cause more rain in theregion. Studying the interdecadal variation ofprecipitation in three rain zones over south China,thevalley of Yangtze River and north China,Tan et al.[2]showed that mid- a…     

Cohesive Crack Analysis of Toughness Increase Due to Confining Pressure

Apparent fracture toughness in Mode I of microcracking materials such as rocks under confining pressure is analyzed based on a cohesive crack model. In rocks, the apparent fracture toughness for crack propagation varies with the confining pressure. This study provides analytical solutions for the apparent fracture toughness using a cohesive crack model, which is a model for the fracture process zone. The problem analyzed in this study is a fluid-driven fracture of a two-dimensional crack with a cohesive zone under confining pressure. The size of the cohesive zone is assumed to be negligibly small in comparison to the crack length. The analyses are performed for two types of cohesive stress distribution, namely the constant cohesive stress (Dugdale model) and the linearly decreasing cohesive stress. Furthermore, the problem for a more general cohesive stress distribution is analyzed based on the fracture energy concept. The analytical solutions are confirmed by comparing them with the results of numerical computations performed using the body force method. The analytical solution suggests a substantial increase in the apparent fracture toughness due to increased confining pressures, even if the size of the fracture process zone is small.     

Integration of transfer function model and back propagation neural network for forecasting storm sewer flow in Taipei metropolis

Typhoons and storms have often brought heavy rainfalls and induced floods that have frequently caused severe damage and loss of life in Taiwan. Our ability to predict sewer discharge and forecast floods in advance during storm seasons plays an important role in flood warning and flood hazard mitigation. In this paper, we develop an integrated model (TFMBPN) for forecasting sewer discharge that combines two traditional models: a transfer function model and a back propagation neural network. We evaluated the integrated model and the two traditional models by applying them to a sewer system of Taipei metropolis during three past typhoon events (NARI, SINLAKU, and NAKR). The performances of the models were evaluated by using predictions of a total of 6 h of sewer flow stages, and six different evaluation indices of the predictions. Finally, an overall performance index was determined to assess the overall performance of each model. Based on these evaluation indices, our analysis shows that TFMBNP yields accurate results that surpass the two traditional models. Thus, TFMBNP appears to be a promising tool for flood forecasting for the Taipei metropolis sewer system. For publication in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Analysis.     

Study on NDVI- T s space by combining LAI and evapotranspiration

This paper focuses on interpreting the different spatial relationships between NDVI and T _s, a triangular or a trapezoid, and on analyzing transformation conditions, the physical and ecological meanings of the vegetation index-surface temperature space as well. Further, we use the Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) to explain the existent meaning of a triangular space after NDVI reaches its saturated state by employing the relationships between NDVI, LAI and evapotranspiration. The specific relations between NDVI and T _s are useful for describing, validating and updating land surface models.     

InSAR相位分解及其在生成DEM和研究地震形变场中的应用

InSAR是极具发展潜力的微波遥感新技术,可应用于数字高程模型的产生、制图和大范围微小地表形变的测量。考虑参考面、地形和地表形变等因素,本文从几何角度分析和讨论了In-SAR的相位分解,并给出了各相位分量的函数表达式,阐述了地表高程和形变信息提取的基本原理。最后以JERS和ENVISAT卫星数据为例,展示了合成孔径雷达干涉测量在生成数字高程模型和提取地震形变场中的应用及其数据处理过程。     

华东地区测震学指标异常配套和中强震对应关系初探

本文分析了部分地震学指标的物理意义。通过对华东地区1970年以来14个指标的全时间扫描,并使用华东地区Ms≥5.0地震进行对应,结果表明,选取Rm值、b值和AC值进行同步异常分析,能显著提高华东地区的有震报震率,但有漏报。对目前华东地区异常集中区(南黄海及其沿岸地区)进行时间扫描,结果显示该异常集中区未出现同步异常,认为该区域短期内发生中强地震的可能性不大。     

气象因子对金花梨生长发育的影响

通过试验研究,探讨主要气象因子在唐河县的变化规律和对金花梨生长发育的影响,研究金花梨在遭受灾害性天气影响时,采取相应的技术措施,确保金花梨的高产、稳产。     

五轮山井田初期采区矿井充水因素分析

通过对五轮山井田水文地质条件、地表水及地下水动态特征及井巷开拓过程中反映的水文地质资料的研究与分析,认为正常情况下,五轮山井田各含水层对煤层开采不构成直接威胁,浅部煤层开采时局部与第四系孔隙水会有直接的水力联系,矿井田初期开采防范的重点是老窑积水和断层导水,其造成的灾害可能是毁灭性的。     

济源水平能见度变化特征及气象影响因子分析

利用济源地区1994—2003年的地面气象观测资料，分析了济源地区水平能见度变化特征及相对湿度、风速、气压、温度和雾对其的影响。