Palaeoseismology of the Havran-Balıkesir Fault Zone: evidence for past earthquakes in the strike-slip-dominated contractional deformation along the southern branches of the North Anatolian fault in northwest Turkey

The Havran-Bal?kesir Fault Zone (HBFZ) is one of the major active structures of the Southern Marmara Region, which has been shaped by the southern branch of North Anatolian fault since the Pliocene. HBFZ is a 10–12 km wide, 120 km long, right-lateral strike-slip fault zone that consists of two ENE-striking main faults, namely, the Havran-Balya and Bal?kesir faults. The 90-km-long Havran-Balya fault exhibits right-stepping en echelon geometry and is made up of (1) Havran, (2) Osmanlar, (3) Turplu and (4) Ovac?k fault segments. On the eastern part, the 70-km-long Bal?kesir fault is divided into two fault segments; (1) Gökçeyaz? and (2) Kepsut. We estimated the long-term slip rate between 3.59 and 3.78 mm/yr using river offset. The Kepsut, Gökçeyaz? and Ovac?k fault segments are capable of generating an earthquake with a moment magnitude of up to 7.2. Detailed palaeoseismological studies show that the HBFZ is responsible for some surface faulting earthquakes with an average recurrence interval of 1000–2000 years during the late Holocene. Considering the fact that there was no evidence of a surface-ruptured earthquake for 2000 years, it can be stated that there is a seismic gap on the Gökçeyaz? fault segment.     

Subduction-related Late Cretaceous high-K volcanism in the Central Pontides orogenic belt: constraints on geodynamic implications

Mineral chemistry, major and trace elements, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age and Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic data are presented for the Late Cretaceous Hamsilos volcanic rocks in the Central Pontides, Turkey. The Hamsilos volcanic rocks mainly consist of basalt, andesite and associated pyroclastics (volcanic breccia, vitric tuff and crystal tuff). They display shoshonitic and high-K calc-alkaline affinities. The shoshonitic rocks contain plagioclase, clinopyroxene, alkali feldspar, phlogopite, analcime, sanidine, olivine, apatite and titanomagnetite, whereas the high-K calc-alkaline rocks contain plagioclase, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene, magnetite / titanomagnetite in microgranular porphyritic, hyalo-microlitic porphyritic and glomeroporphyritic matrix. Mineral chemistry data reveal that the pressure condition of the clinopyroxene crystallisation for the shoshonitic rocks are between 1.4 and 6.3 kbar corresponds to 6–18-km depth and the high-K calc-alkaline rocks are between 5 and 12 km. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age data changing between 72 ± .5 Ma and 79.0 ± .3 Ma (Campanian) were determined for the Late Cretaceous Hamsilos volcanic rocks, contemporaneous with the subduction of the Neo-Tethyan Ocean beneath the Pontides. The studied volcanic rocks were enriched in the large-ion lithophile and light rare earth element contents, with pronounced depletion in the contents of high-field-strength elements. Chondrite-normalised rare earth element patterns (La_N/Lu_N = 6–17) show low to medium enrichment, indicating similar sources of the rock suite. Initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values vary between .70615 and .70796, whereas initial ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values change between .51228 and .51249. Initial ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb values vary between 18.001 and 18.349, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb values between 15.611 and 15.629 and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb values between 37.839 and 38.427. The main solidification processes involved in the evolution of the volcanic rocks consist of fractional crystallisation, with minor amounts of crustal contamination ± magma mixing. According to geochemical evidence, the shoshonitic melts in the Hamsilos volcanic rocks were possibly derived from the low degree of partial melting of a subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM), while the high-K calc-alkaline melts were derived from relatively high degree of partial melting of SCLM that was enriched by fluids and/or sediments from a subduction of oceanic crust.     

径流还原计算中淤地坝拦蓄水量还原计算方法

黄土高原地区淤地坝分布密集,对天然产汇流过程扰动较大,给径流还原或水资源评价带来了极大的影响。因此,研究淤地坝影响下的径流还原计算方法对区域水资源评价或径流设计有重要意义。以黑木头川流域为研究对象,分别采用还原系数法和径流系数法计算了殿市水文站控制产汇流区的淤地坝逐年拦蓄水量,并将两种方法的结果进行对比,论证了还原系数法的适用性。还原系数法的计算结果表明:1971~2007年殿市水文站产流区内的淤地坝平均年拦蓄水量为86.21×104m3,与径流系数法计算所得到的拦蓄水量基本一致,相对误差仅为1.36%。同时,研究发现单位控制面积分摊后的拦蓄水量在年际变化上并不显著,基本维持在某一区间内。研究结果表明还原系数法不仅可用于洪水还原,也可较为准确地计算淤地坝影响区的淤地坝拦蓄变量。作为河川径流还原计算方法或淤地坝影响的黄土高原地区水资源评价研究的计算方法之一,可与径流系数法进行交叉验证,进而获得比较准确的淤地坝拦蓄水量。且由于淤地坝年拦水量空间分摊后,单位控制面积的拦水量基本稳定,故在淤地坝上游无明显人类活动的情况下,可据此初估已知或近似区域淤地坝控制流域面积条件下的淤地坝年拦蓄水量,为黄土高原地区今后开展水资源评价和径流预报提供一条简单的途径。     

GIS-based approach for flood analysis: case study of Keçidere flash flood event (Turkey)

The purpose of this study is to explain the formation mechanism of the floods which occurred in the Keçidere basin in 2009. In this study, discharge data in between 1981 and 2009, digital elevation model (DEM), satellite images and field works were used as a main data sources. LPT3 was applied to 29-year maximum flow data to produce different flood return periods such as 2, 5, 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000-year flood. The DEM was created using 1:25,000 topographic contours with Topo to Raster interpolation techniques in geographical information systems (GIS). Land use and some geometric data were digitized using high resolution satellite images for hydraulic modelling purposes. Simulation of the 2009 flash flood event and different return periods flow data was done using one-dimensional hydraulic modelling with HEC-RAS. In the last phase, results obtained from the simulations and field works were compared based on fits statistics and mean absolute error in terms of extent and depth. An analysis of water extent and depth features observed during the highest flow ever measured in the basin revealed that the result overlapped with 500-year inundation extent. Overall, the results of the research indicate that GIS is an effective environment for floodplain mapping and analysis.     

高原湖泊和平原湖泊遥感动态监测的对比分析——以洱海和鄱阳湖为例

湖泊及其动态变化在区域生态环境保护中占据极其重要的作用,监测并对比分析不同类型的湖泊动态变化对区域生态环境保护意义重大。应用Landsat TM遥感数据,基于ENVI遥感图像处理软件和Arc GIS空间分析软件,分别以洱海和潘阳湖为例,利用单波段阈值法、波段组合法等方法提取了湖泊水体现状信息;通过波段运算、波段替换等方法提取了湖泊的动态变化信息;对比分析了高原湖泊和平原湖泊两类湖泊动态变化信息提取监测效果。研究表明:应用波段组合法提取湖泊水体信息有较高的准确度,而缨帽变换法提取湖泊水体信息准确度偏低;受湖泊界限标准不统一、季节性水域变化,湖泊周边地理环境等影响,平原湖泊水体分布状况较高原湖泊水体分布状况复杂,多种遥感图像处理方法结合使用更适用于平原湖泊遥感动态监测。     

Remedial measures against radioactive Caesium in Swedish lake fish after Chernobyl

The aim of this work is to give a summary of the work on Cs-137 in Swedish lakes carried out mainly by our group (the Liming-mercury-caesium project) between 1986 and 1990. The focus is on results from extensive field experiments carried out in 41 lakes testing various remedial measures to speed up the natural recovery of Cs-137 in lakes: Lake liming and wet land liming with primary rock lime, sedimentary rock lime and so-called mixed lime, which also contains nutrients; potash treatment and intensive fishing. Selected results: The remedies have given the intended water-chemical response. None of the methods used works effectively as cure, i.e., no rapid and clear reduction in the concentrations of radioactive caesium in fish is obtained in comparison with lakes where the waterchemical or biological conditions are not changed. In lakes with long water turnover time and with low values of, foremost, conductivity, hardness and potassium, the fish had relatively higher concentrations at the same fallout levels. The differences present between the lakes as regards the continued magnitude of the change in concentration in fish can foremost be linked to factors controlling the secondary load (i.e., the internal loading and the input from the catchment). A successful potash treatment (in oligotrophic lakes) may imply that the natural recovery will be at the most 5% faster compared to no treatment. This would give quite positive implications in the long run since the ecological half-life for Cs-137 in pike (the top predator in these lake types) is very long. The time interval between the remedies and the latest fish analyses (about 2 years on average) is not sufficient to obtain (statistically) clear-cut results on these the small effects of the remedies. A longer time series of data is required for this.     

Spatio‐temporal variability of Great Lakes basin snow cover ablation events

In the Great Lakes basin of North America, annual run‐off is dominated by snowmelt. This snowmelt‐induced run‐off plays an important role within the hydrologic cycle of the basin, influencing soil moisture availability and driving the seasonal cycle of spring and summer lake levels. Despite this, relatively little is understood about the patterns and trends of snow ablation event frequency and magnitude within the Great Lakes basin. This study uses a gridded dataset of Canadian and United States surface snow depth observations to develop a regional climatology of snow ablation events from 1960 to 2009. An ablation event is defined as an interdiurnal snow depth decrease within an individual grid cell. A clear seasonal cycle in ablation event frequency exists within the basin and peak ablation event probability is latitudinally dependent. Most of the basin experiences peak ablation frequency in March, while the northern and southern regions of the basin experience respective peaks in April and February. An investigation into the interannual frequency of ablation events reveals ablation events significantly decrease within the northeastern and northwestern Lake Superior drainage basins and significantly increase within the eastern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay drainage basins. In the eastern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay drainage basins, larger ablation events are occurring more frequently, and a larger impact to the hydrology can be expected. Trends in ablation events are attributed primarily to changes in snowfall and snow depth across the region.     

Determination of snow water equivalent over the eastern part of Turkey using passive microwave data

Information on regional snow water equivalent (SWE) is required for the management of water generated from snowmelt. Modeling of SWE in the mountainous regions of eastern Turkey, one of the major headwaters of Euphrates–Tigris basin, has significant importance in forecasting snowmelt discharge, especially for optimum water usage. An assimilation process to produce daily SWE maps is developed based on Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) model and AMSR‐E passive microwave data. The characteristics of the HUT emission model are analyzed in depth and discussed with respect to the extinction coefficient function. A new extinction coefficient function for the HUT model is proposed to suit models for snow over mountainous areas. Performance of the modified model is checked against the original, other modified cases and ground truth data covering the 2003–2007 winter periods. A new approach to calculate grain size and density is integrated inside the developed data assimilation process. An extensive validation was successfully performed by means of snow data measured at ground stations during the 2008–2010 winter periods. The root mean square error of the data set for snow depth and SWE between January and March of the 2008–2010 periods compared with the respective AMSR‐E footprints indicated that errors for estimated snow depth and predicted SWE values were 16.92 cm and 40.91 mm, respectively, for the 3‐year period. Validation results were less satisfactory for SWE less than 75.0 mm and greater than 150.0 mm. An underestimation for SWE greater than 150 mm could not be resolved owing to the microwave signal saturation that is observed for dense snowpack. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real-time flood forecasting with the use of inadequate data

Abstract

A modelling scheme is developed for real-time flood forecasting. It is composed of (a) a rainfall forecasting model, (b) a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, and (c) a stochastic error model of the ARMA family for forecast error correction. Initialization of the rainfall-runoff model is based on running this model on a daily basis for a certain period prior to the flood onset while parameters of the error model are updated through the Recursive Least Squares algorithm. The scheme is suitable for the early stages of operation of flood forecasting systems in the presence of inadequate historical data. A validation framework is set up which simulates real-time flood forecasting conditions. Thus, the effects of the procedures for rainfall-runoff model initialization, forecast error correction and rainfall forecasting are assessed. Two well-known conceptual rainfall-runoff models (the Soil Moisture Accounting model of the US National Weather Service River Forecast Service—SMA-NWSRFS and TANK) together with data from a Greek basin are used for illustration purposes.