1960—2009年中国冬季区域性极端低温事件的时空特征

采用区域性极端低温事件客观识别技术对1960—2009年的区域性极端低温事件进行检测,并分析其空间分布和时间演变特征。结果表明：区域性极端低温事件指标中最低温度和几何中心纬度的频次分布为双峰特征,发生频次较高的纬度主要位于30°N和42°N附近,且1980年代中期以前南北两个带并存,之后则以30°N附近为主;1960—2009年事件的发生频次、强度和最大覆盖面积等呈总体减弱趋势,在1980年代后期存在显著的转折,1990年代后期变化逐渐趋于平缓,并且这种变化主要是由占总数10%的持续时间长和空间范围广的事件作用的结果。此外,对体现事件多方面影响的综合指标进行等级划分并分析其变化特征。     

黑龙江省闪电活动特征及其与地面相对湿度的响应关系

利用2006-2017年黑龙江省闪电定位资料和日平均地面相对湿度资料,采用数理统计、Pearson相关分析、GIS空间分析技术,研究了闪电密度和强度对地面相对湿度（R_H）的响应关系。结果表明：地面R_H过小或过大都不利于闪电活动产生;当R_H < 25%时,几乎无闪电发生,当R_H < 77%时,R_H增加有利于闪电活动发生,当R_H>79%时,随着R_H增加,闪电活动减少;当R_H < 77%时,闪电密度与之呈正相关,闪电强度与之呈负相关;当R_H>79%时,闪电密度与之呈负相关,闪电强度与之呈正相关;地面R_H的临界值域约为77%-79%;70%≤ R_H ≤ 90%区间为闪电易发湿度区间,在闪电密度与湿度相关度高的区域,闪电更趋于集中发生在闪电易发湿度区间。     

泰山旅游环境承载力及其时空分异特征与利用强度研究

旅游环境承载力作为一种稀缺性非实物资源具有空间分异和时间变化规律;文章采取静态的模型研究方法,对泰山主景区的旅游环境承载力作出了系统测算,揭示了其时空分异规律,剖析了旅游环境承载力资源的利用强度,提出了旅游调控策略。     

CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS: APPLICATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS

Considering the feature of tropical cyclones (TCs) that strong positive vorticity exists in the lower layers of troposphere, this study proposed to use vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function to find the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which was largely different from those previous studies using total energy of perturbed forecast variables. The CNOP was obtained by an ensemble-based approach. All of the sensitive areas determined by CNOP with vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function for the three cases were located over the TC core region and its vicinity. The impact of the CNOP-based adaptive observations on TC forecasts was evaluated with three cases via observational system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Results showed obvious improvements in TC intensity or track forecasts due to the CNOP-based adaptive observations, which were related to the main error source of the verification area, i.e., intensity error or location error.     

TOMRADE和MODTRAN 3.7模式研究紫外后向散射探测臭氧总量问题的比较

本文利用MODTRAN 3.7和TOMRADE模式分别计算了308.0 nm、312.5 nm、317.5 nm、322.3 nm、331.2 nm、360.0 nm六个紫外波段的后向散射强度并进行了比较,且利用两个模式计算得到的插值表,对EPTOMS实测资料分别进行反演,得到结论如下：1）两模式算得的后向散射强度随着太阳天顶角、卫星天顶角、地表反照率的变化特性基本一致,均能较好的反映紫外后向散射的辐射特性;2）总体而言,两模式计算的后向散射强度值相对偏差在－6％～18％之间;3）分别把MODTRAN 3.7和TOMRADE模式计算的插值表用于2003年7月30日中纬度地区EPTOMS实测资料的反演,得到的臭氧总量相对偏差在－3％～5％之间.本文对紫外波段大气辐射传输模式的研究和紫外后向散射探测臭氧总量的反演误差研究有着重要意义.     

日侧极光弧的发光强度与沉降电子能谱的相关关系

本文利用中国北极黄河站多波段全天空极光观测数据,选取稳定的日侧极光弧,统计研究了极光强度比I_557.7/I_630.0与极光发光强度I_557.7的相关关系.发现I_557.7在午前暖点和午后热点区附近出现极大值,分别为2.2 kR和2.9 kR;而I_630.0在磁正午出现极大值,为1.5 kR.当I_557.7从0.1 kR增加到10 kR时,极光强度比I_557.7/I_630.0也由0.2增加到9.结合DMSP卫星探测的沉降粒子能谱数据,找到17个DMSP卫星穿越黄河站上空极光弧的事件,共穿越40条极光弧.得到了沉降电子的平均能量正比于极光强度比I_557.7/I_630.0,沉降电子的总能通量正相关于极光强度I_557.7的关系式.利用该关系式反演所有极光弧的电子能谱,发现在午前和午后扇区,产生极光弧的沉降电子主要来源于等离子体片边界层;在高纬出现强度较弱的弧,对应等离子体幔区域.在磁正午附近,沉降电子的平均能量较低,极光弧处于低纬一侧,粒子源区主要是低纬边界层.

     

DYNAMIC FACTORS RELATED TO DECAY PROCESS OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC

Intensity variation of tropical cyclones(TCs),especially that of coastal or landfalling TCs,is of great concern in current research.Most of the research papers,however,focus on intensification processes of TCs;only a few discuss decay processes in the lifetime of a TC.In the daily weather operation related to TCs,it is challenging when a TC weakens and/or disappears suddenly,because it brings more difficulties than the forecast of intensifying TCs does.Overestimation of a decaying landfalling TC would lead to over-preparation of defensive measures and result in"crying wolf"mentality with adverse effects.This study summarized physical mechanisms that dominate the decaying process of TCs and listed several possible dynamical factors:reduced level of air temperature,too large or too small speed,contraction of TC size amplification of TC’s core,and lightning number in a TC.     

近40年东亚夏季风及我国夏季大尺度天气气候异常

定义了一个反映东亚夏季大尺度季风强度的指数，计算了夏季逐月及季的东亚季风指数（1873～1989年）。用近40年资料研究了东亚夏季风与我国夏季大尺度天气的关系。指出，强夏季风时，我国夏季大范围高温。东亚夏季风与我国夏季降水的关系则表现在夏季雨带的南北位置上。强夏季风时，雨带偏北。夏季雨带位置偏南均与弱季风有关。长江中下游夏季的涝年与弱季风有关，而强夏季风时，长江中下游经常是旱年。最后，研究了强、弱夏季风年时的北半球500 hPa环流异常特征，结果表明，东亚夏季风强度是造成我国夏季气温、降水异常的主要原因。     

Macroparasites of angelfish Brama brama (Bonnaterre, 1788) in the southern Benguela Current ecosystem

The angelfish Brama brama is a mesopelagic species distributed circumglobally in temperate to warm-temperate waters, including continental-shelf-edge and upper-slope waters of the Benguela Current ecosystem. Little is known about the parasite assemblage of Benguela B. brama, with only three parasite taxa having previously been documented from this species in the southern Benguela. This study describes the macroparasites recorded from 35 B. brama collected during research surveys off the west coast of South Africa in 2015 and 2016. A total of six macroparasite taxa were documented, including the nematode Anisakis pegreffii, the copepod Hatschekia conifera, the cestode Hepatoxylon trichiuri, an acanthocephalan from the genus Rhadinorhynchus, a monogenean from the family Diclidophoridae, and an unidentified species. Three of these (He. trichiuri, Rhadinorhynchus sp. and the unidentified species) had not previously been found to infect B. brama. The most prevalent macroparasite taxa were A. pegreffii (94%), the unidentified species (71%) and Ha. conifera (60%). Two of the parasites, Ha. conifera and He. trichiuri, showed seasonal variation in infection, and infection with the latter was positively correlated with host length. These findings increase our knowledge of B. brama biology and contribute to our understanding of the biodiversity of the southern Benguela ecosystem.     

云南澜沧江中南段多金属成矿谱系分析

基于GIS空间分析技术,对云南澜沧江中南段多金属矿床的赋矿地层时间谱系、容矿构造空间谱系和矿床成因谱系进行了较系统的分析.研究表明,下-中元古界、三叠系、泥盆系、二叠系是本区最重要的赋矿层位,有两个聚矿期和多个时代地层含矿的特点,不同时代地层的含矿性具有多样性和专属型特征,元古宙火山沉积为主的建造是铁-铜、钨-锡矿为主的赋矿层位,晚古生代-中生代早期是沉积、裂谷火山活动强烈时期,金、铜、铅、锌、银、汞、锑、钨、锡多金属矿床高度聚集.自东向西为中生代坳陷区金、铜、镍成矿带,思茅-龙洞河晚古生代-三叠纪沉积盆地铜、铅、锌、银成矿带,岩浆弧地块钨、锡、铅-锌、铁成矿带,浅变质岩基底铅-锌-银、铁成矿带,被动边缘活动带金、铅-锌-银、锡成矿区和保山-镇康微地块铅-锌、铜、铁、汞成矿带,构成了容矿构造空间谱系.全区多金属矿床有沉积、沉积改造、岩浆-变质热液、火山沉积-火山热液四大成矿谱系,14种成矿类型,铜多金属、铅-锌-银、锡-钨矿床是研究区最具找矿前景的优势矿种.