基于卡尔曼滤波算法的焦炭价格预测

焦炭价格预测研究具有重要的理论和实践意义,本文利用卡尔曼滤波算法对焦炭价格进行预测研究。建立状态空间模型时,选取焦炭价格作为唯一的状态变量,通过每一时刻变量观测值与预测值形成的新息,不断更新和迭代,以寻求最优估测值。实证分析表明,该算法对焦炭价格的跟踪和预测效果较好。     

北京地区地应力测量与主要断裂稳定性分析

2008年汶川地震后,为查明北京地区现今地应力状态、评价断裂稳定性,相继在北京地区开展了5个深孔（600~1000 m）的水压致裂法地应力测量,并在适宜深度安装了地应力相对变化监测探头,建立了地应力变化监测台站.本文首先利用实测地应力数据分析了北京地区地壳浅表层应力状态,结果表明：（1）北京地区千米深度内,最大、最小水平主应力随深度增加梯度系数分别为0.0328和0.0221,侧压系数K_av和K_Hv值,最大、最小水平主应力之比K_Hh值与国内外已有认识基本一致,而水平向剪应力相对强度参数μ_m值较低;（2）北京地区最大水平主应力优势方向为近EW向,与华北地区构造应力场方向基本一致,同时受区内断裂活动等影响,存在与区域主应力方向偏差的局部应力场;（3）实测数据揭示的应力结构显示,北京地区地壳浅表层最大主应力（σ₁）总体为最大水平主应力（σ_H）,受区域构造演化以及测点附近断裂的影响,中间主应力（σ₂）与最小主应力（σ₃）所对应的实测地应力存在变化,但总体来讲,实测地应力数据揭示的应力结构与北京地区主要断裂性质基本相吻合.其次,基于实测应力数据,采用库仑摩擦滑动准则,结合拜尔定律,并取摩擦系数为0.2~1.0,初步评价了北京地区主要断裂稳定性,结果显示：（1）在摩擦系数取0.6~1.0条件下,北京地区现今应力状态尚未达到导致断裂失稳滑动水平,断裂不会出现失稳滑动现象;（2）摩擦系数弱化到0.4时,西峰寺钻孔应力状态满足断裂失稳滑动条件,揭示出八宝山断裂存在失稳滑动可能性,而夏垫-马坊断裂和黄庄-高丽营断裂附近测点应力状态将趋近满足断裂失稳滑动条件,表明这两条断裂有趋向失稳滑动可能性;（3）只有当摩擦系数弱化到0.2时,北京地区主要断裂才可能在现今应力状态出现断裂失稳滑动.本文的认识对北京地区乃至华北地区构造应力场、地震地质研究有重要参考意义.     

Incorporating intensity bounds for assessing the seismic safety of structures: Does it matter?

The closed‐form solution for assessing the proportion of the mean annual frequency of limit‐state exceedance as a function of integration limits is introduced, in order to study whether or not the mean annual frequency of limit‐state exceedance is overestimated if the lower and(or) upper integration limit of the risk equation are(is) not selected in a physically consistent manner. Simple formulas for assessing the threshold value of the lower and upper integration limits are also derived. These formulas can be used to quickly assess the significant range of ground motion intensity that affects the mean annual frequency of limit‐state exceedance. It is shown that the threshold values of the integration limits depend on the median intensity causing a limit‐state, the corresponding dispersion and the slope of the hazard curve in the log domain. For several reinforced concrete buildings located in a region with moderate seismicity, it is demonstrated that the mean annual frequency of collapse can be significantly overestimated when assessed by integrating the risk equation over the entire range of ground motion intensity. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

热带印度洋偶极子模态的不对称性及其成因的数值研究

热带印度洋偶极子 (Indian Ocean Dipole) 是印度洋海域内海洋和大气环流年际变化的主要特征模态之一, 在热带海气耦合系统中起到非常重要的作用。同热带太平洋的ENSO现象类似, 热带印度洋偶极子也呈现出显著的不对称性。本文利用中国科学院大气物理研究所发展的全球海洋环流模式, 在观测风应力距平的强迫下, 评估了模式对热带印度洋季节变化、 热带印度洋偶极子 (IOD) 模态及其不对称性的模拟能力, 并且通过数值试验分析了IOD模态不对称性特征及其对气候平均态的影响。对照观测资料, 模式较好地再现了热带印度洋SST在季风驱动下的季节变化特征。在年际时间尺度上, 模式不仅能够再现IOD指数的变化趋势, 而且可以成功模拟出IOD模态的空间分布特征, 即表层和次表层海温在西印度洋表现为正异常, 在东印度洋表现为负异常。可见, 对于热带印度洋而言, IOD模态主要是对风应力异常的响应。热带印度洋海温与Niño3.4指数的相关性分析表明, 模式能够模拟出超前热带太平洋ENSO现象2～4个月时海温的偶极子型分布, 但是不能模拟出滞后ENSO现象2个月左右的全海盆增暖模态, 可能是因为模式试验中没有考虑热通量年际异常的强迫。同时, 模式模拟的IOD模态具有同观测结果相类似的不对称性, 进一步的敏感性试验表明风应力的不对称性对偶极子指数的不对称性贡献较小, 次表层及以下海温的不对称性可能主要受到海洋内部非线性动力过程的影响。通过数值试验, 本文还发现热带印度洋海温的不对称性对气候平均态会有影响, 而这种不对称性长期积累后, 会导致上层热带印度洋温度层结趋于稳定状态。     

印度洋海气相互作用对热带夏季大气环流气候态的影响

利用分辨率较高的SINTEX-F(Scale INTeraction EXperiment-FRCGC) 海气耦合模式, 进行多组长时间积分模拟和理想试验, 分析研究热带印度洋海气耦合对夏季大气环流气候态的影响。主要结果有: (1) 热带印度洋海气相互作用使热带东印度洋产生明显的东风变化, 使热带中西太平洋赤道北部产生气旋性切变变化。 (2) 印度洋海气相互作用对大气环流气候态的影响绝大部分由于大气对海气相互作用的响应存在年际变化正负距平不对称性造成, 这种年际变化不对称性包括正偶极子与负偶极子的不对称、 海盆宽度正异常与海盆宽度负异常的不对称。 (3) 年际和季节内两种时间尺度海气相互作用对印度洋关键区大气环流平均态都有影响, 约各占60%、 40%; 季节内尺度海气相互作用对太平洋近赤道区大气环流平均态有重要影响; 年际尺度海气相互作用对太平洋赤道外地区大气环流平均态有重要影响。热带印度洋年际尺度、 季节内尺度海气相互作用对大气环流气候态的影响, 都存在年际变化以及年际变化正负距平不对称性。这两种尺度海气相互作用主要通过年际变化正负距平不对称性而对大气环流平均态产生影响。     

Analysis on concentration and source rate of precursor vapors participating in particle formation and growth at xinken in the Pearl River Delta of China

Concentration and source rate of precursor vapors participating in particle formation and subsequent growth were investigated during the Pearl River Delta intensive campaign （PRD2004, October 2004） in southeastern China. Four new particle formation event days and a typical non-event day were selected for our analysis. Atmospheric sulphuric acid, the important precursor vapor in nucleation and growth, were simulated with a pseudo steady-state model based on the measurements of SO2, NOx, 03, CO, non-methane hydrocarbon （NMHC） and ambient particle number concentrations as well as modeled photolysis frequencies obtained from measurements. The maximum midday sulphuric acid concentrations vary from 4.53 × 10^7 to 2.17 × 10^8 molecules cm^-3, the corresponding source rate via reaction of OH and SO2 range between 2.37 × 10^6 and 1.16 × 10^7 molecules cm^-3 s^-1. Nucleation mode growth rate was derived from size spectral evolution during the events to be 6.8-13.8 nm h^-1. Based on the growth rate, concentration of the vapors participating in subsequent growth were estimated to vary from 1.32 × 10^8 to 2.80 × 10^8 molecules cm^-3 with corresponding source rate between 7.26 × 10^6 and 1.64 × 10^7 molecules cm^-3 s^-1. Our results show the degree of pollution is larger in PRD. Sulphuric acid concentrations are fairly high and have a close correlation with new particle formation events. Budget analysis shows that sulphuric acid alone is not enough for required growth; other nonvolatile vapors are needed. However, sulphuric acid plays an important role in growth; the contribution of sulphuric acid to growth in PRD is 12.4%-65.2%.     

深穿透地球化学方法找金--以甘南草甸覆盖区为例

应用深穿透地球化学找矿方法,对常规化探方法难以奏效的草甸覆盖区进行土壤地球化学调查,探索草甸覆盖区隐伏及半隐伏金矿的找矿新方法.选定的手段是土壤剖面及面积性土壤测量,测定的相态是水提取金、有机结合金、自然金.通过本次工作,圈出了多片不同相态的异常.对个别异常进行验证,发现了金矿体,显示出该方法在本区使用的有效性,为甘南地区开展深穿透地球化学找矿工作提供了依据.     

Critical-state-based Mohr-Coulomb plasticity model for sands

This paper presents a refined Mohr-Coulomb model for sands based on the critical state theory. The refined model adjusts a dilatancy angle based on the state parameter with respect to the critical state line. Furthermore, a friction angle is decomposed into the critical state friction angle and a portion of the dilatancy angle to capture the peak phenomenon of dilative sands. The elemental simulations of the drained and undrained triaxial compression tests on Toyoura sand using the refined model showed much better performance than the conventional Mohr-Coulomb model.     

Constitutive model for soft rocks considering structural healing and decay

The behavior of soft rock depends on the contact area between mineral particles and the tensile strength of the interparticle cementation, which are usually referred to as structures. We investigated the effects of structural decay and healing on the behavior of soft rock through monotonic and slide-hold-slide triaxial tests under the drained condition with constant effective confining pressure. We developed a constitutive model for soft rocks incorporating structural healing and decay in the context of the extended critical state theory. The model was validated via laboratory tests and captured the behavior of soft rock, including the healing and decay phenomena.     

重载货车作用下基床表层应力状态及破坏影响因素分析

重载货车作用下线路破坏问题与基床表层应力状态密切相关。通过建立货车-线路动力分析模型,分析货车通过时基床表层应力状态变化规律,研究道床厚度、轴重、速度、基床表层模量等因素对基床表层破坏的影响规律。结果表明:基床表层在车辆作用下遵循从纯剪到三轴剪切再回到纯剪状态的变化规律,主应力轴连续旋转180°;道床厚度低于0.5m、速度超过70km/h、基床表层模量低于160 MPa、轴重超过27t都有可能造成基床表层塑性变形;当应力路径超过破坏线情况下,路基弹性假设将不再适用。