An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook is carried out by modelling peaks over a high threshold. The aims are to illustrate recently developed statistical techniques and to report on interesting features of the flow of the brook over a 58-year period. Peak flows are found to show marked seasonal variation and a downward trend. Then-year return level is estimated for various values ofn, and the reliability of the estimates is assessed.     

12 600 years of lake level changes, changing sills, ephemeral lakes and Niagara Gorge erosion in the Niagara Peninsula and Eastern Lake Erie basin

Over the last 12600 years, lake levels in the eastern Lake Erie basin have fluctuated dramatically, causing major changes in drainage patterns, flooding and draining ephemeral Lake Wainfleet several times and widening and narrowing the Niagara Gorge as the erosive effects of Niagara Falls waxed and waned. The control sill for Lake Erie levels was at first the Fort Erie/Buffalo sill, before the Lyell/Johnson sill in Niagara Falls took over due to isostatic rebound. This sill, in time, was eventually eroded by the recession of Niagara Falls and the Fort Erie/Buffalo sill regained control. The environmental picture is complicated by catastrophic outbursts from glacial Lake Agassiz and Lake Barlow-Ojibway, changes in outlet routes, isostatic rebound and climatic changes over the Great Lakes basins. Today, the flow of water into Lake Erie from the streams and rivers surrounding it only accounts for about 13% of the flow out of it, therefore, the importance of flow from the Upper Great Lakes, specifically the flow from Lake Huron, has a great effect on Lake Erie levels. While the changing control sills, Lyell/Johnson and Buffalo/Fort Erie would affect Lake Erie levels, overall they are mostly input driven by the amount of waters received from the Upper Great Lakes. Since Lake Erie's water level changes are so closely tied to Lake Huron's water level changes we have decided to use names assigned to Lake Huron such as the two Mattawa highstands and three Stanley lowstands rather than inflict a whole new set of names on the public. While the duration of each high and lowstand in Erie and Huron may not always be the same, they always happen within the same time frame. The datum elevations used for Lake Huron (175.8 m) and Lake Erie (173.3 m) are historically recorded averages. The Lake Erie levels proposed in this paper reflect Lake Hurons effects on Lake Erie and the levels occuring at the eastern end of the Erie Basin throughout the last 12600 years. All dates in this paper are uncorrected ¹⁴ C dates unless the date was obtained from shells, then the date has been corrected for hard-water effects. Also, all heights are given as modern day elevations and are not adjusted for isostatic rebound.     

数字水准仪在高程控制测量中的应用

在测绘技术及仪器技术不断提升的同时,基础测绘以及工程测量等对于水准测量的精度要求也越来越高,数字水准仪运用到高程控制测量也具备了实现的可能性。本文针对实际工程中基本设计对测量精度的要求来探讨数字水准仪的测量精度和可靠性。     

Wasp-waist populations and marine ecosystem dynamics: Navigating the “predator pit” topographies

Many marine ecosystems exhibit a characteristic “wasp-waist” structure, where a single species, or at most several species, of small planktivorous fishes entirely dominate their trophic level. These species have complex life histories that result in radical variability that may propagate to both higher and lower trophic levels of the ecosystem. In addition, these populations have two key attributes: (1) they represent the lowest trophic level that is mobile, so they are capable of relocating their area of operation according to their own internal dynamics; (2) they may prey upon the early life stages of their predators, forming an unstable feedback loop in the trophic system that may, for example, precipitate abrupt regime shifts. Experience with the typical “boom-bust” dynamics of this type of population, and with populations that interact trophically with them, suggests a “predator pit” type of dynamics. This features a refuge from predation when abundance is very low, very destructive predation between an abundance level sufficient to attract interest from predators and an abundance level sufficient to satiate available predators, and, as abundance increases beyond this satiation point, decreasing specific predation mortality and population breakout. A simple formalism is developed to describe these dynamics. Examples of its application include (a) a hypothetical mechanism for progressive geographical habitat expansion at high biomass, (b) an explanation for the out-of-phase alternations of abundances of anchovies and sardines in many regional systems that appear to occur without substantial adverse interactions between the two species groups, and (c) an account of an interaction of environmental processes and fishery exploitation that caused a regime shift. The last is the example of the Baltic Sea, where the cod resource collapsed in concert with establishment of dominance of that ecosystem by the cod’s ‘wasp-waist” prey, herring and sprat.     

Variations in the abundance of fisheries resources and ecosystem structure in the Japan/East Sea

Evidence supports the hypothesis that two climatic regime shifts in the North Pacific and the Japan/East Sea, have affected the dynamics of the marine ecosystem and fisheries resources from 1960 to 2000. Changes in both mixed layer depth (MLD) and primary production were detected in the Japan/East Sea after 1976. The 1976 regime shift appears to have caused the biomass replacement with changes in catch production of major exploited fisheries resources, including Pacific saury, Pacific sardine and filefish. Both fisheries yield and fish distribution are reflected in these decadal fluctuations. In the 1960s and 1990s, common squid dominated the catches whereas in the 1970s and 1980s, it was replaced by walleye pollock. In the post-1988 regime shift, the distribution of horse mackerel shifted westward and southward and its distributional overlap with common mackerel decreased. The habitat of Pacific sardine also shifted away from mackerel habitats during this period. To evaluate changes in the organization and structure of the ecosystem in the Japan/East Sea, a mass-balanced model, Ecopath, was employed. Based on two mass-balanced models, representing before (1970–75) and after (1978–84) the 1976 regime shift, the weighted mean trophic level of catch increased from 3.09 before to 3.28 after. Total biomass of species groups in the Japan/East Sea ecosystem increased by 15% and total catch production increased by 48% due to the 1976 regime shift. The largest changes occurred at mid-trophic levels, occupied by fishes and cephalopods. The dominant predatory species shifted from cephalopods to walleye pollock due to the 1976 regime shift. It is concluded that the climatic regime shifts caused changes in the structure of the ecosystem and the roles of major species, as well as, large variations in biomass and production of fisheries resources.     

Stable isotope analysis of Pacific salmon: insight into trophic status and oceanographic conditions over the last 30 years

Food web interactions and the response of Pacific salmon to physical processes in the North Pacific Ocean over interannual and interdecadal timescales are explored using naturally occurring stable isotope ratios of carbon (¹³C/¹²C) and nitrogen (¹⁵N/¹⁴N). Stable isotope analyses of five species of sexually mature North Pacific salmon from Alaska (Oncorhynchus spp.) cluster into three groups: chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) have the highest values, followed by coho (O. kisutch), with chum (O. keta), sockeye (O. nerka), and pink (O. gorbuscha) together having the lowest values. Although detailed isotopic data on salmon prey are lacking, there are limited data on relevant prey items from areas in which they are found in high abundance. These data suggest that the characteristics of the sockeye, pink and chum we have analyzed are compatible with their diets including open ocean squid and zooplankton, which are in general agreement with stomach content analyses. Isotope relationships between muscle and scale show consistent relationships for both δ¹³C (R²=0.98) and δ¹⁵N (R²=0.90). Thus, scales, which have been routinely archived for many systems, can be used for retrospective analyses. Archived sockeye salmon scales spanning 1966–1999 from Red Lake, Kodiak Island, Alaska were analyzed for their stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen. The δ¹⁵N record displays a decreasing trend of ˜3‰ from 1969–1982 and an increasing trend of ˜3‰ from 1982–1992, while the variations in δ¹³C are relatively minor. These trends may result from factors such as shifts in trophic level of feeding and/or feeding location, or may originate at the base of the food web via changes in processes such as nutrient cycling or primary productivity. Detailed studies on prey isotopic variability and its controls are needed to distinguish between these factors, and thus to improve the use of stable isotope analysis as a tool to learn more about present and past ecosystem change in the North Pacific and its relation to climatic change.     

The influence of local winds and the southern North Sea on the level of the River Thames

Subtidal changes of the level of the River Thames are examined over the period September–October 1973. Almost 98% of the total subtidal variance can be accounted for by a spatial mode describing uniform changes of level at all tide gauges. This mode is due to changes of the level of the southern North Sea into which the River Thames flows. The remaining 2% of total variance can be almost completely described by a tilting of level. This tilting is partly due to a delay in the response of the river to elevation changes at the mouth and partly to the effect of local wind. The effect of local wind could cause the level at Greenwich to differ from that at Southend by as much as 35 cm.     

Water-level fluctuations, emersion regimes, and variations of echinoid populations on a Caribbean reef flat

This paper examines fluctuations in water level over a Caribbean reef flat at Punta Galeta, Panamá. In an analysis of approximately ten years of records, the mean diurnal range of the tides was 24·5 cm and varied <2 cm from year to year. Daily mean water levels varied erratically over a range of approximately 30 cm. Monthly mean water levels fluctuated seasonally over a range of about 10 cm and were consistently higher than those at the regional tidal reference station at Cristóbal. On days with more wave action, water levels at Galeta increased relative to those at Cristóbal, suggesting that waves were ‘pumping’ water onto the reef flat. The monthly mean water levels at the two sites were not correlated, indicating that tidal data from conventional stations in deeper water cannot be extrapolated to reef flats, except as estimates of minimum potential water levels.Most of the reef flat was within 6 cm vertical span just below mean lower low water. The highest elevations within this range were exposed above water level for an average of 918 hours per year, as compared with 144 hours per year at the lowest elevation. Most exposures lasted less than 10 hours, with a modal duration of 3–5 hours; however, exposures longer than 12 hours occurred at nearly all elevations in all years. Exposures of the reef flat were most frequent between February and June and between August and November, a pattern apparently caused by a combination of seasonal oscillations of regional sea levels, the annual pattern of the solstitial tides, and waves generated by seasonal trade winds.The fluctuations in water levels apparently affected the abundances of some species of sea urchins on the reef flat. Populations of Lytechinus variegatus and Diadema antillarum declined or disappeared from the reef flat during seasons of repeated subaerial exposures, but recolonized the habitat in periods of higher water levels. Although they are reported to suffer heavy mortality during emersion, Echinometra lucunter and E. viridis did not exhibit reductions in abundance that were synchronous with the seasonal exposures of the reef flat.     

我国苏北建川潮汐盐沼有孔虫垂直分带的发现和特征

通过三个断面加密有孔虫表层采样和精确高程测量,发现建川开敞型盐沼存在特征性盐沼有孔虫组合,这些组合与盐沼植被带相应,受高程控制,有明显的垂直分带,垂直带顶面即最高高潮位以上有孔虫突然消失.这个有孔虫垂直分布模式可高精度地恢复古海面(精度最高可达±5cm).该研究为我国高分辨恢复古海面提供了一个地区性的现代有孔虫标尺,同时该工作也填补了国外仅局限于研究隐蔽型海岸盐沼有孔虫垂直分带的不足.     

台州湾海域表层沉积物中多环芳烃的浓度水平、富集规律及来源

研究了台州湾海域海水和表层沉积物中15种多环芳烃(PAHs) 的浓度水平,评价了表层沉积物对多环芳烃的富集规律,探讨其可能来源.结果表明,表层沉积物中 PAHs 的浓度范围为85.4～167.6 ng / g,平均值为138.62 ng/g,总多环芳烃的最大值是椒江码头.表层沉积物中二环、三环、四环、五环和六环多环芳烃占总多环芳烃的百分含量平均值分别为7.8 %,42.1 %,33.3 %,9.6 % 和 7.2 %,三环多环芳烃的含量最高;表层沉积物对多环芳烃的富集系数为 532.7～1 068.9,平均值为 807.5,单组分菲的富集系数最高为 122.7,最小的是苯并(a) 芘为 2.7;台州湾表层沉积物中的多环芳烃主要来源于燃煤污染,部分来源于石油烃类物质的直接污染.