岩体水力学基础(三)──岩体渗流场与应力场耦合的集中参数模型及连续介质模型

本文在分析了岩体系统的结构性和水力学特征后，提出了岩体渗流场与应力场耦合数学模型的机理分析、混合分析及系统辨识建模方法。运用系统辨识方法建立了岩体渗流场与应力场耦合的集中参数模型，并应用于解决实际问题；运用机理分析和混合分析方法建立了岩体渗流场与应力场双场耦合及与温度场三场耦合的连续介质分布参数模型。     

Reservoir Diagenesis Sequence and Framework in Intracontinent Rift Basin,East China

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11 million years of Oligocene geomagnetic field behaviour

An 11 million year long record of the Oligocene geomagnetic field has been obtained from pelagic sediments of DSDP Hole 522 An average sample spacing of 4 cm yielded approximately one specimen per 4 to 8 kyr. The rock magnetics are remarkabh consistent across the entire interval. Previous work demonstrated a magnetic mineralogy dominated by magnetically stable magnetite. The natural remanent magnetism (NRM) carries an Oligocene polarity timescale that is in excellent agreement with the Oligocene reversal record as determined from marine magnetic anomalies (MMAs), including many of the so-called 'crypto-chrons'. Normalized NRM intensities from the undisturbed portions of the record yield a time series of variations with features consistent with a number of other palaeointensity time series derived from both sedimentary and lava sequences. These features include consistent, major decreases in palaeointensity (DIPs) at reversal boundaries, and occasional DIPs between reversal boundaries that could correspond to lineated 'tiny wiggles' in the MMA records. The data set suggests that the overall field strength was 40 per cent higher in the first half of the Oligocene when the average reversal frequency was 1.6 Myr^-1 than in the second half when the reversal frequency was 4 Myr^-1. There is also a weak dependence of average field strength on length of polarity interval. Finally, in the three cores suited to spectral analysis (of coherent polarity and relative intensity independent of lithological contamination), there is a persistent ca. 30–50ka periodicity in the variations of the relative intensity, suggesting that the geomagnetic field 'pulses' at about this frequency, not only during the Brunhes (as demonstrated by Tauxe & Shackleton 1994), but in the Oligocene as well.     

Neural dynamic modelling on earthquake magnitude series

Earthquake magnitude prediction is of vital importance for human safety. The earthquake is a very complicated and non-linear dynamic process. It cannot be described adequately by any deterministic models. In this paper a neural dynamic modelling for earthquake magnitude prediction is reported. Historical records of earthquake magnitude series are used to construct the optimal non-linear dynamic model, and the consequent outcome of the earthquake behaviour is then predicted by this model. In turn, the latest recorded data set can be fed back to improve the accuracy of the neural dynamic model. The modelling of experiments of three earthquake magnitude series in China and Japan and their extrapolated predictions are included in this paper. The values predicted by extrapolation are in good agreement with the historical data.     

Preliminary palaeomagnetic results of an Archaean dolerite dyke of west Greenland: geomagnetic field intensity at 2.8 Ga

The geomagnetic field intensity during Archaean times is evaluated from a palaeomagnetic and chronological study of a dolerite dyke intruded into the 3000 Ma Nuuk Gneisses at Nuuk (64.2°N, 51.7°W), west Greenland. Plagioclase from the dolerite dyke yields a mean K-Ar age of 2752 Ma. Palaeomagnetic directions after thermal demagnetization of the dyke and the gneiss reveal a positive baked-contact test, indicating that the high-temperature-component magnetization of the dyke is primary. Thellier experiments on 12 dyke specimens yield a palaeointensity value of 13.5±4.4 μT. The virtual dipole moment at ca. 2.8 Ga is 1.9±0.6 × 10²² Am², which is about one-quarter of the present value. The present study and other available data imply that the Earth's magnetic field at 2.7 ∼ 2.8 Ga was characterized by a weak dipole moment and that a fairly strong geomagnetic field similar to the present intensity followed the weak field after ca. 2.6 Ga.     

A model for the Am (Km) planetary geomagnetic activity index and application to prediction

We studied the existence of dynamical stochastic relations in the evolution of the am index. A first analysis of the autocorrelation functions showed evidence of several seasonalities. We first used linear (ARMA) models, and it was found that these do not account for the whole internal dynamics of the data series. We then used various non-linear models to provide a better fit to reality. The forecast performances of the non-linear models are not significantly different from those of the linear model. We give a tentative explanation for the failure of the non-linear predictions. Finally, ARCH models were used in order to take into account the fact that the confidence interval for the predicted value depends on past observations.     

Invariants in toroidal and tangentially geostrophic frozen-flux velocity fields

We derive two new types of invariant that must be obeyed by the radial magnetic field at the core-mantle boundary if the hypothesis of frozen flux is valid and the fluid motion is either toroidal or tangentially geostrophic there. These general invariants incorporate specific invariants that are already known and can, in principle, be tested using magnetic data that cover an interval of time.     

Periodicity of magnetic intensities in magnetic anomaly profiles: the Cenozoic of the South Atlantic

Spectral analyses of several published magnetic anomaly profiles from Candé & Kent (1992a) were undertaken prior to analysing, in the same way, raw magnetic anomaly data from similar parts of the South Atlantic. It was found that similar and distinct medium and short wavelengths were present in both the published and raw data. When these are converted into the time domain using the average rate of spreading for each profile, these periodicities appear similar, possibly identical, to those expected from the long-term eccentricity orbital parameters (Fischer, DeBoer & Premoli Silva 1990). While such correlations are not necessarily causative, they suggest that magnetohydro-dynamical processes near the core-mantle boundary may be affected by gravitational changes due to planetary orbital perturbations.     

区域经济联系定量分析初探：以上海与苏锡常地区经济联系为例

针对目前区域联合日益广泛和经济联系量化研究不足的现状，在联系强度等方面提出一些新概念；阐述了经济联系量化指标的选取，建立了经济联系定量分析模型。