近30年北半球冬季臭氧总量分布特征及其与平流层温度的关系

臭氧的时空分布特征对气候和环境变化具有显著影响,随着臭氧资料数量的增加和质量的提高,有必要对臭氧时空分布特征及其与气候变化的关系进行详细研究.本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的1979—2013年的全球月平均臭氧总量资料、平流层温度场资料,采用旋转经验正交函数分解(REOF)、Morlet小波分析、合成分析等方法研究了20°N以北的北半球冬季(12—2月)臭氧总量异常的主要空间分布结构与时间演变特征,并进一步分析了主要模态与平流层上层(2 hPa)、中层(30 hPa)以及下层(100 hPa)温度异常的关系.结果表明:近30年北半球冬季臭氧总量异常变化最显著的区域主要有5个,分别位于极地地区(75°N—90°N,0°—360°)、北半球副热带地区(20°N—40°N,0°—360°)、阿拉斯加地区(60°N—75°N,180°—260°E)、北大西洋地区(45°N—60°N,310°E—360°E)及西伯利亚地区(50°N—65°N,80°E—130°E).5个区域的冬季臭氧总量异常具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征.1980年代后期是各个区域的臭氧总量异常由年代际偏多转为偏少的转换时段.此外,各区域存在显著的年际变化周期,而且各个区域的年际周期存在明显的差异.臭氧总量异常变化与平流层温度异常变化的关系表明,臭氧总量异常的增加(减少)能够导致平流层上层温度异常偏冷(暖)和平流层中、下层温度异常偏暖(冷),其中平流层中层温度异常的偏暖(冷)程度要比下层更加明显.     

Novel deseasonalizing models for improving the prediction of total ozone in column using evolutionary programming and neural networks

In this paper we present a novel method for deseasonalizing TOC data using non-linear models, with evolutionary computation techniques, and its performance with a neural network as regression approach. Specifically, the proposed deseasonalization method uses an evolutionary programming (EP) approach to carry out a curve fitting problem, where a given function model is optimized to be as similar as possible to an objective curve (a real TOC measurement in this case). Different non-linear models are proposed to be optimized with the EP algorithm. In addition, we test the possibility of deseasonalizing the TOC measurement and also the meteorological input data. The deseasonalized series is then used to train a neural network (multi-layer perceptron). We test the proposed models in the prediction of several TOC series in the Iberian Peninsula, where we carry out a comparison against a reference deseasonalizing model previously proposed in the literature. The results obtained show the good performance of some of the deseasonalizing models proposed in this paper.     

扩展的倾斜角和倾斜角总水平导数方法

为了突出显示重磁场中地质体分布、断裂构造特征等信息,使图像显示错落有序、层次分明、清楚直观,有利于解释人员从不同角度认识重磁场异常特征.本文通过分析倾斜角概念,根据反余切函数特性,提出了扩展的倾斜角(iTdr)和倾斜角总水平导数(iTdr_Thdr)方法,来增强重磁异常信息,突出异常形状特点,以便于识别重磁异常中地质体边界和提取地质体分布、断裂构造平面展布特征等信息.理论模型和实际资料对比分析表明该方法简单、实用、具有较好的识别效果和较高的分辨能力,能够获取丰富的地质信息,对识别地质体边界、划分大地构造单元、确定断裂带和地质构造走向等具有实际意义.     

Total Organic Carbon (TOC) as a Sum Parameter of Water Pollution in Selected Polish Rivers (Vistula,Odra, and Warta)

This paper reports on total organic carbon (TOC) and its fractions dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) studied in different Polish rivers. The samples investigated came from the Vistula, Odra, and Warta rivers, and were compared with similar data on river waters available in the literature. The DOC concentrations ranged from 10.0 to 14.2 mg/L and did not vary during the vegetative season. The POC values considerably increased from May through September and reached a maximum in summer. Results for the years 1991τ1996 evidenced a significant increase in the POC value for the Polish rivers from 10.8 to 24.5 mg/L, in comparison with analogous values for West European rivers and North American ones. The enhanced values of TOC and POC were interpreted as being due to anthropogenic pollution.     

Electro‐Catalytic Degradation of Phenol Organics with SnO2‐Sb2O3/Ti Electrodes

The effect of extraordinary degradation of phenol organics on the SnO₂‐Sb₂O₃/Ti electrode is investigated through experimental research and theoretical analysis. The phenol organics contained 4‐chloro‐phenol, 4‐bromo‐phenol, and 2‐iodo‐phenol. At a current density of 4 mA cm^–2 and an electrolysis time of 12 h, the degradation efficiency of the phenols was over 98% with a relatively short degradation time, whereas the degradation time of the PbO₂/Ti electrode surpassed 40 h while delivering 100% disposal efficiency. Therefore, the effectiveness of electrochemical (EC) oxidation by the SnO₂‐Sb₂O₃/Ti was superior to that of the PbO₂/Ti electrode. At the same time, the SnO₂‐Sb₂O₃/Ti had higher oxygen generation potential and lower electron consumption than the other electrodes. This was mainly due to the effect of the middle Sb₂O₃ layer, which due to its high porosity and good catalytic effect, contributed to a better catalysis than the SnO₂ part.     

Fisheries mismanagement

We analysed the extent to which European politicians have adhered to scientific recommendations on annual total allowable catches (TACs) from 1987 to 2011, covering most of the period of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). For the 11 stocks examined, TACs were set higher than scientific recommendations in 68% of decisions. Politically-adjusted TACs averaged 33% above scientifically recommended levels. There was no evidence that the 2002 reform of the CFP improved decision-making, as was claimed at the time. We modelled the effects of such politically-driven decision-making on stock sustainability. Our results suggest that political adjustment of scientific recommendations dramatically increases the probability of a stock collapsing within 40 years.In 2012 European fisheries policy will undergo a once-a-decade reform. Ten years ago radical reforms were promised but the changes failed to improve sustainability. It is likely that the 2012 reform will be similarly ineffective unless decision-making is changed so that catch allocations are based on science rather than politics.     

ATTEM系统中电流关断期间瞬变电磁场响应求解的研究

在瞬变电磁法中,由于发射电流关断时间不为零、接收线圈的谐振频率有限,早期瞬变电磁信号发生畸变,只能舍弃,因此存在着探测盲区. 针对这一问题,研究了瞬变电磁方法中发射电流关断期间总磁场的形成过程,论证了一次场、二次场和总瞬变场的关系,分析了接收线圈的频率特性和关断时间对瞬变电磁场的影响,提出从总磁场中剔除一次磁场影响的方法,从而获得电流关断期间和电流关断后的早期瞬变电磁场. 采用吉林大学自主研制的瞬变电磁测量系统(ATTEM)在长春市伊通河活断层进行勘探,进一步验证了算法的有效性,缩短了瞬变电磁法的勘探盲区,实现了近地表4 m以下的勘探,可以清晰地分辨近地表的低阻异常,提高了浅层探测精度和分辨率.     

利用日本GPS网探测2011年Tohoku海啸引发的电离层扰动

海平面的海啸波会产生大气重力波进而引发电离层扰动.本文利用日本GPS总电子含量数据来探测2011年3月11日Tohoku海啸引发的电离层扰动.观测结果表明,在日本上空的电离层中存在两种重力波信号,分别由海平面的海啸波以及地震破裂过程产生.地震产生的电离层重力波分布在震中周围（包括海洋上空以及远离海洋的区域）,而海啸引发的电离层重力波主要分布在海洋上空.地震产生的电离层重力波具有不同的水平速度,包括约210 m·s^-1以及170 m·s^-1,其频率为1.5 mHz;而海啸引发的电离层重力波水平速度快于前者,约为280 m·s^-1,其频率为1.0 mHz.此外,海啸引发电离层重力波与海平面上的海啸波有相似的水平速度、方向、运行时间、波形以及频率等传播特征.本文的研究将电离层中的海啸信号与地震信号区分开来,进一步确认电离层对海啸波的敏感性.

     

含碳结构对龙门山断层带电导率影响的实验探索

碳是影响岩石电导率大小的一个重要因素,可能是造成龙门山断层带电导率异常的重要原因之一.为了研究不同的碳含量、矿物颗粒粒径与碳晶体结构对断层带电导率的影响,在干燥、常温、0.2~300 MPa的压力条件下实验研究了人工模拟断层泥样品（石英粉末与含碳粉末混合的样品,简称模拟样品）和采自映秀-北川断层八角庙剖面的天然断层岩样品（简称天然样品）的电导率.实验结果显示,当模拟样品中的含碳粉末连通时,电导率与碳体积率的关系符合逾渗理论模型;而含碳粉末未连通时,电导率随总孔隙度降低而指数性升高.同时模拟样品的电导率也随石英颗粒粒径的变化而发生改变.相比于模拟样品中的含碳粉末主要分布于石英颗粒支撑的孔隙中,天然样品中的碳则主要以碳膜的形式赋存在颗粒边缘,导致碳体积率相同的条件下,模拟样品的电导率小于天然样品.此外,天然样品的电导率（ < 9×10^-4 S·m^-1）也要小于野外大地电磁探测的结果（0.03~0.1 S·m^-1）.在今后的实验中还需要考虑在动态摩擦条件下对含有完整含碳结构的天然样品进行电导率的实验研究.