Candidate precursors: pulse-like geoelectric signals possibly related to recent seismic activity in Japan

Telemetric network observations of pulse-like geoelectric charge signals using a vertical dipole buried under the ground were undertaken at various observation sites over a wide area in Japan from April 1996. From continuous records of the signals during the six months following that, we attempted to select anomalous signals, possibly related to seismic electric activity. Special attention was paid to the elimination of noise resulting from industrial and meteorological electric activity, comparison with other electromagnetic signals in the VLF band and the relation between the precursor period and the distance from the eventual main shock that occurred in Japan. Four candidate precursor electric signals, which were not contaminated by industrial and meteorological electric activity, were then selected, of which the second appeared before the Akita-ken Nairiku-nanbu earthquake swarm, for which the maximum M = 5.9 occurred on 1996 August 11, and the third and fourth before the Chiba-ken Toho-oki earthquake, M = 6.6, on 1996 September 11. A tentative qualitative model explaining why the candidate precursory signal is related to stress building up before an earthquake is presented in terms of the electrification of gases released from fracturing rocks immediately prior to the main shock.     

大地电磁地震前兆初步分析系统

介绍了大地电磁(MT)地震前兆初步分析系统的建立及主要功能,运用该系统对2003年度祁连山地震带8个大地电磁复测点进行了MT多参量综合对比、变化幅度的计算及异常前兆判定,取得较好效果。     

Short-term Earthquake Prediction in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region Using the Method of Modulated Earthquakes

By scanning modulated or un-modulated earthquakes spatio-temporally in the region of Sichuan-Yunnan,short-term non-stationary seismic precursory patterns were extracted with significant difference and the characteristic of non-stationary short-term seismic anomalies were analyzed as well as prediction efficiency of modulated small earthquakes before a strong earthquake. Besides,small earthquake modulation ratios near the region of the epicenter were calculated and sorted by time. The results indicated that there were significant effects using the modulated earthquake method to predict earthquakes greater than MS6. 0 in a short time. Before the MS8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake,there were obvious short-term precursory seismicity gap patterns of modulated small earthquakes.     

Palaeoseismic records in lacustrine sediments—A case study of the Daqingshan piedmont fault and Hasuhai Lake in Inner Mongolia,China

As a traditional method for palaeoseismic studies, trenching can be combined with dating techniques to identify palaeoseismic events and the earthquake recurrence interval. However, when using trenches to study palaeoearthquakes, factors such as the active tectonic background of the earthquake‐caused structure, the lithology on both sides of the fault, the geomorphology location and type and the samples and methods for dating will affect the location of the trench. Thus, trenches should be carefully selected and used to identify the impact of ancient earthquakes. The results have substantial uncertainties and limitations. In recent years, scholars have made considerable progress in using other methods to reveal the palaeoseismic information of faults. Moreover, the history of fault activity may have been recorded in the lacustrine sediment adjacent to the fault. Hasuhai Lake is adjacent to the middle segment of the Daqingshan piedmont fault in Inner Mongolia. Since the Holocene, the region has experienced a temperate continental semi‐arid climate with little interference, and Hasuhai Lake and peripheral waters present weak hydrodynamic conditions that provide an ideal location for the study of palaeoseismic records in lacustrine sediments. Sediment samples and samples for dating were collected from three trenches excavated on the periphery of the Hasuhai Lake. Their variations in grain size and magnetic susceptibility revealed that wind and flowing water jointly produced the sedimentary conditions of Hasuhai sediments. The ¹⁴C dating results and variations in the grain size distribution, grain size components and magnetic susceptibility of sediments caused by seismic events obtained in this study were compared with those caused by a series of palaeoseismic events at the middle segment of the Daqingshan piedmont fault reported by previous studies using trenches, knickpoints and palaeosol records. The results identified seven palaeoseismic events recorded near Hasuhai Lake since 12,000 years. The combined use of lacustrine sediment variation characteristics and dating techniques is an effective method for studying palaeoseismic events.     

地震周期的数值估计

模拟计算表明,地震有多种成因,多种因素的周期复合掩盖了地震的周期性。环太平洋地震带受板块运动、潮汐波动、厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜、海平面变化、剥蚀沉积、太平洋十年涛动等诸多因素影响,地震活动最为强烈,8．5级以上强震有明显的准60年和1800年潮汐波动周期。     

Earthquake-controlled event deposits and its tectonic significance from the Middle Permian Wandrawandian Siltstone in the Sydney Basin,Australia

Earthquake is a disaster event resulting from rapid and intensive crustal vibration caused by fault activity, volcanic eruption, or block dilapidation. Heezen and Ewing[1] and Heezen and Dyke[2] were the first to note earthquake-related mass movement and associated deposits in connection to the turbidity currents and submarine slumps triggered by the Grand Bank Earthquake in 1929. Seilacher[3] defined redeposited sedimentary beds, disturbed and modified by earth- quakes, as seismite. Since t…     

从传播学仪式观理论视角探讨防震减灾科普宣传的参与实践——以云南防震减灾科普民歌为例

受众参与是防震减灾科普宣传工作的重要基础。从传播学仪式观的理论视角,以云南防震减灾科普民歌为案例,提出在云南少数民族地区有效开展防震减灾科普宣传工作的对策建议:①细分受众,有针对性地开展防震减灾科普宣传;②强调受众参与,强化防震减灾科普宣传实效;③创新形式,依托少数民族地区喜闻乐见的文艺体现形式开展防震减灾科普宣传。     

用ETAS模型分析自贡矿井注水触发地震

为研究自贡地区矿井注水与地震活动性之间的关系,按地震活动规律将注水区ML1.2以上历史地震活动划分为3个阶段,采用POWELL法反演了各阶段ETAS模型参数。结果表明,不存在注水的第1、2阶段背景地震比例约40%～50%,单个地震序列中余震较少。而在注水的第3阶段,由地震自激产生的余震比例较高(93.1%),而背景地震仅占6.9%,比第1、2阶段都要少,这一结果与已有的认识相矛盾。为此,提出单位时间背景地震的发生率,即ETAS模型参数中的μ值,作为判断注水触发地震的依据。计算结果表明,与前两个阶段相比,第3阶段的确拥有最大的μ值,说明注水对该区地震触发有明显影响。     

国际地磁学与高空物理学协会和国际地震学与地球内部物理学协会联合科学大会及地震电磁研究进展

简要介绍了 2 0 0 1年 8月 1 9～ 3 1日在越南河内召开的国际地磁学与高空物理学协会 ( IAGA)和国际地震学与地球内部物理学协会 ( IASPEI)联合科学大会以及地震电磁研究进展 ,表明地震电磁前兆在地震预测研究中具有一定的实际效果与良好的研究前景。我们建议在不久的将来能在北京举办 IAGA,IASPEI和 IUGG(国际大地测量学与地球物理学联合会 )大会。这将促进我国的科技进步 ,有助于加强我国在国际科学界的地位与影响。     

黄河小浪底水库诱发地震可能性初探

本文根据小浪底水库地区的地震地质和水文地质条件，浅析了水库诱发地震的可能性，并对其最大震级进行了多种方法的估算预测。