Modeling coseismic displacements resulting from SAR interferometry and GPS measurements during the 1997 Umbria-Marche seismic sequence

In this study we analyse coseismic GPS displacements and DInSAR data to constrain a dislocation model for the three largest earthquakes of the 1997 Umbria-Marche seismic sequence. The first two events, which occurred on September 26 at 00:33 GMT (Mw 5.7) and 09:40 GMT (Mw 6.0) respectively, are investigated using both GPS displacements and DInSAR interferograms. We discuss and compare the results of previous studies which separately modeled a smaller subset of geodetic data. We provide a dislocation model for these two earthquakes which fits well both GPS and DInSAR data and agrees with the results of seismological and geological investigations. The first event consists of a unilateral rupture towards the southeast with a uniform dislocation. The strike, rake and dip angles are those resulting from the CMT solution. The second event consists of an unilateral rupture towards the northwest and a variable slip distribution on the fault plane. The strike and the rake are consistent with the CMT solution, but the dip angle has been slightly modified to improve the simultaneous fit of GPS and DInSAR data. While the second rupture (09:40 GMT) arrived very close to the surface, the fit to geodetic data shows that the first rupture (00:33 GMT) is deeper (2 km), despite the more evident surface geological effects. The analysis of new SAR interferograms allows the identification of a 5–6 cm additional displacement caused by the October 3 (Mw 5.2) and 6 (Mw 5.4) seismic events.We use data from a new DInSAR interferogram to model the displacement field of the Sellano earthquake of October 14, 1997. For this event significant GPS measurements were not available. We tested two different fault plane geometries: a blind, planar fault (top depth = 2.4 km), and a curved (listric) fault reaching the surface. The two models provide a generally similar fit to the data, and show that most of the slip was released at depths greater than 2.4 km along a gently dipping (40^°–45^°) fault surface. They also show that a unilateral rupture does not allow fitting the interferometric fringes since there is evident surface deformation to the northwest of the hypocenter. Moreover, we suggest that the concentration of high residuals in the southern part of our uniform slip model may in fact indicate a certain slip variability in this area.We conclude that, despite the moderate magnitudes and the lack of significant surface faulting, the space geodetic data allowed to constrain dislocation models giving new insights in the rupture process of the three largest events of the sequence.     

气压场巨涨落与非线性地震系统状态的突变和临震预报研究（上）

本研究以非线性孕震系统在爆发前夕的外敏性为物理基础，对大气扰动下的岩体失稳突变问题进行了初步的探讨，给出了气─－地耦合的一般表示，并连续分析了云南近３５年来大气压力场演化与场内近百次５级以上地震（内含１９次６级，４次７级）的基本关系，系统地证明了绝大部分强震都是在其上覆大气涨落加剧及与邻区气压梯度增大时突然爆发的，这种自然共性的揭示，既是对理论的认证，也丰富了短临地震预报的科学依据。     

地震结构爆裂理论与短临预测

在地震结构爆裂动力学理论基础上,揭示了临震前兆波的客观机制。作为储能体的地震包体,其流体压力达到覆盖岩层的断裂强度和重力之和时,在引潮力的作用下,包体发生局部破裂,裂纹发生扩张,产生破裂流和破裂波,交替发生冲击加载和垮塌卸载,同潮汐波叠加,形成地震前兆共振波,以相速度和群速度向围岩传播,其振动频率和周期表征包体的固有频率和周期。波速和周期均可以被灵敏度高和抗干扰性能强的PS100HRT地电仪在地震爆发前捕捉到,从而可用于确定地震的震中和震级。依据共振波出现后振幅随时间增加的规律,月潮规则,可以确定发震时间。地震和临震理论以及诊断技术均已经成熟,中国有望在世界上首先实现地震预报。查清地震包体,地震能可以如同油气那样供人类利用。     

A neural network approach for structural identification and diagnosis of a building from seismic response data

This work presents a novel procedure for identifying the dynamic characteristics of a building and diagnosing whether the building has been damaged by earthquakes, using a back‐propagation neural network approach. The dynamic characteristics are directly evaluated from the weighting matrices of the neural network trained by observed acceleration responses and input base excitations. Whether the building is damaged under a large earthquake is assessed by comparing the modal parameters and responses for this large earthquake with those for a small earthquake that has not caused this building any damage. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated through processing the dynamic responses of a five‐storey steel frame, subjected to different strengths of the Kobe earthquake, in shaking table tests. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.     

论工业企业防震减灾

本文论述了我国工业企业防震减灾现状，提出工业企业防震减灾的目标和指导原则，以及部分工业企业的防震减灾措施和对策。     

The experimental study of acoustic emission during creep of rocks

Under normal temperature, the creep experiments with complete samples of Gabbro and Marble rocks are made under uniaxial compression. It is found that at the instantaneous creeping stage, AE activities increase with loading; at the steady creeping stage, large AE signals may appear at lower background of AE action, andm—value which shows the relationship between AE amplitude and frequency keeps stable on the low value or decreases; at the accelerate creeping stage, AE activities increase andm—value decreases quickly or decreases again after recovery. These experimental results are related to the quality of the samples. In this paper, AE activities during three stages of creeping process are connected with the seismic patterns (for exampleb—value, foreshocks). Finally, it is pointed out the possibility that the foreshock—mainshock—aftershock earthquake sequence has been formed by the mechanism of creep fracture of crustal rocks. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 104–112, 1991. This subject is sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Hydrogeological and Gasgeochemical Earthquake Precursors – A Review for Application

Even if earthquake precursory signals can be identified, how can they be useful? This paper investigates relationships among the attributes of 229 proposed earthquake related gasgeochemical and hydrogeological precursory signals, and applies these results to improve future earthquake prediction strategies. Sub-groups of these reported signals and relationships between sub-groups are established using parameters, including earthquake magnitude, signal duration, precursory time, and epicentral distance to the monitoring site (original studies are used wherever possible to improve data quality). A strong correlation (r=0.86) between signal duration and precursory time was identified. This suggests a relationship between the investigated precursory signals and tectonic processes related to the referenced earthquakes. Moreover, these signals are categorized into four groups, reflecting differences in monitoring station densities, measurement methods and physical processes related to signal occurrence: (a) radon exhalation from the earth’s crust, (b) exhalation of other gases (helium, argon and others), (c) temporal variation in water level or discharge of springs and (d) temporal variation in temperature and dissolved ions in the water of the monitoring sites. In addition, boundary functions are used to separate signal group subsets. Finally, it is shown how these boundary functions can be used in the context of an earthquake prediction strategy by identifying potential minimum magnitudes and maximum epicentral distances from the monitoring site.     

元代及其前历史强震目录增补与讨论（续）

在综合处理元代及其前地震震后救灾,减灾措施及社会影响的基础上,通过对比研究,对缺乏震害描述的地震进行了参数厘定,并对部分疑难地震进行了讨论,弥补了这一时期研究的不足。