嘉峪关光化楼残损变形现状及抗震性能分析

中国木结构建筑是我国宝贵的物质文化遗产和文化瑰宝，具有悠久的文化历史。以嘉峪关光化楼为依托，对光化楼进行实地调研，分析光化楼主要残损变形。采用ANSYS软件建立考虑光化楼残损变形的三维有限元精细模型，并进行模态分析与时程分析。研究结果表明，光化楼主要残损变形为油饰脱落、墙体剥蚀开裂、柱偏移等，极个别柱产生较大偏移；光化楼刚度相对稳定，前20阶振型自振频率均在10Hz以内；光化楼动力放大系数与层间位移角均较小，仍具有良好的抗震减震性能。     

Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology - A comparison of methods

This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter λ to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.     

Short and long memory unobserved components in hydrological time series

In this paper a semiparametric approach is introduced to decompose an ARFIMA model in the long memory and short memory unobserved components. The procedure is based on the DECOMEL method which produces a statistical decomposition by minimizing the Euclidean distance between the spectrum of the aggregated series and the sum of the parametric spectra of the components. The extension to long memory stationary models is achieved defining an approximate model where the fractional operator is replaced by the ratio of two polynomials of order one. The feasibility and performance of the proposed procedure are discussed through a case study.     

Selection of ground motion time series and limits on scaling

A procedure to select time series for use in non-linear analyses that are intended to result in an average response of the non-linear system is proposed that is not based simply on magnitude, distance, and spectral shape. A simple model of a yielding system is used as a proxy for the non-linear behavior of a more complicated yielding system. As an example, Newmark displacements are used as a proxy for more complex slope-stability models. The candidate scaled time series are evaluated to find those that yield a response of the simple non-linear system that is near the expected response for the design event. Those scaled time series with responses near the expected value are selected as the optimum time series for defining average response even if the scale factors are larger than commonly accepted (e.g. scale factors >factor of 2).     

转移概率预报方法在霜冻预报中的应用

本文在简介转移概率预报方法及最大概率预报原理的基础上,分析了吕梁市1957年～2000年霜冻初、终日期各随机时间序列状态之间的转换规律,结合各序列的初始分布,建立预报模型,并对1995年～2004年的初、终霜日期进行了预报效果检验。结果表明,该方法预报效果好,使用性强,具有良好的应用前景。     

On the link between GPS pseudorange noise and day-boundary discontinuities in geodetic time transfer solutions

When neglecting calibration issues, the accuracy of GPS-based time and frequency transfer using a combined analysis of code and carrier phase measurements highly depends on the noise of the GPS codes. In particular, the pseudorange noise is responsible for day-boundary discontinuities which can reach more than 1 ns in the time transfer results obtained from geodetic analysis. These discontinuities are caused by the fact that the data are analyzed in daily data batches where the absolute clock offset is determined by the mean code value during the daily data batch. This pseudorange noise is not a white noise, in particular due to multipath and variations of instrumental delays. In this paper, the pseudorange noise behavior is characterized in order to improve the understanding of the origin of the large day-boundary discontinuities in the geodetic time transfer results. In a first step, the effect of short-term noise and multipath is estimated, and shown to be responsible for only a maximum of 150 ps (picoseconds) of the day-boundary jumps, with only one exception at NRC1 where the correction provides a jump reduction of 300 ps. In a second step, a combination of time transfer results obtained with pseudoranges only and geodetic time transfer results is used to characterize the long-term evolution of pseudorange errors. It demonstrates that the day-boundary jumps, especially those of large amplitude, can be explained by an instrumental effect imposing a common behavior on all the satellite pseudoranges. Using known influences as temperature variations at ALGO or cable damages at HOB2, it is shown that the approach developed in this study can be used to look for the origin of the day-boundary discontinuities in other stations.     

太阳常数的变化与太阳软x射线辐射流量及低频天波时延的关系

本文对1982年在陕西临潼接收的美国罗兰-C西北大平洋链Y台发射的100kHz低频一跳天波时延的实测资料及SMS－GOES测量的太阳1～8A软x射线的每日辐射流量与SMM／ACRIMI测量的太阳常数之间的关系进行了分析。结果表明：太阳1～8A软x射线辐射流量与太阳常数之间存在较强的负相关;低频一跳天波时延与太阳常数之间存在着较强的正相关。并对此进行了讨论。     

关于建立我国卫星电视授时系统的方案

提出搭载现存的卫星TV广播系统进行高精度授时的方案,改进和提高我国的授时服务。该方案与现存的短波、长波授时比较,有许多优点：精度高、复盖面大、用户设备简单,能24小时连续服务,并包含有更多的时间信息、自动定时和输出标准频率。2～3年就能建成本系统．即可以投入使用,且投资很少。     

毫秒脉冲星计时观测的研究进展

对毫秒脉冲星时间测量的理论、方法和技术研究的进展进行了阐述。根据近年来取得的观测研究结果,毫秒脉冲星计时测量误差～2×10－7秒,毫秒脉冲星自转周期稳定性足以和现代原子钟相媲美：其相对频率不稳定度达到1×10－14（1年≤γ≤5．2年）,并可望更高。近年来,脉冲星计时观测系统的接收灵敏度获得很大改进,计时观测的数据采集、处理技术、脉冲到达时间分析模型研究等都有长足发展。通过综合脉冲星时间算法得到的脉冲星时间尺度将比现代原子时具有更高的长期稳定度。叙述了脉冲星的物理特性及有关计时观测系统的技术成果,如观测频率和带宽的选择,消色散和接收系统灵敏度等问题。最后对毫秒脉冲星时间测量的误差源进行了讨论,并对脉冲星时间尺度的应用前景做了展望。     

关于时间本质的研究

本文简要介绍人类认识时间的历史进程,指出目前在哲学和自然科学两个领域对时间性质的研究仍然存在着需要进一步探索的问题。这些问题主要有：1．时间有没有起点？2．时间是无限的还是有限的？3．关于时间的方向性;4．时间可不可以量子化？