利用一维时间序列重建动力系统的初步研究

通过对月平均气温一维时间序列作相空间拓展,和假定相空间状态变量随时间的演化方程含有线性和非线性二次项,再根据拓展后的资料进行拟合,利用最小二乘法求出各项系数,保留其方差贡献大的项,以重建动力系统.实际计算结果表明,重建的低阶动力系统有可能对月平均气温所表征的短期气候演化过程的非线性特性作出描写.     

波动方程模型和偏移的拟合解法

本文提出一个较差分法精确的波动方程的数值解法--拟合法,拟合法与差分法的区别在于方程的离散化方法.文章通过对差分离散化实现过程的分析指出差分离散化存在的不足,并进而给出了拟合离散化方法.与差分法比较,拟合法的算子系数具有方程整体统筹性,是在具体的采样间隔、步长条件下的最佳系数,因而能适应样点间隔、步长等条件的变化,精度较高.文中还给出了模型及实例.     

1988年11月6日澜沧—耿马地震的水氡异常

本文研究了1988年11月6日澜沧、耿马7.6和7.2级地震的水氡异常,认为:1.震前中期、短期及临震各阶段异常均有显示;2.中期异常是趋势性上升的高值异常,它占全部异常的比例,与国内其它几次7级地震相比较略偏低;3.短期异常中有高值和低值异常,位于震中区及北西向腾冲-耿马地震带上的水氡观测点,以氡浓度降低的负异常为主要特征;4.震中周围300公里内未发现临震异常,它多出现在300—500公里范围内,特别集中在小江断裂带上。     

海南岛及其邻区地震活动特征分析

将海南岛及其邻近地区划分为３地震活动区和４个地震活动条带，系统地研究了各区、带地震活动的时间序列特征及空间分布特点，为海南地震时、空、强三要素预报提供参考依据。     

强震前地震多重分形谱的异常及其物理解释：以乌什研究区为例

应用有关软件分析新疆乌针研究区地震活动时间分布的多重分形谱Ｄｑ－ｑ和ｆ（ａ）－ａ。发现两次６级强震发生前，多重分形谱发生显著变化。主要特征是对一定的ｑ区间奇异性强度因子ａ取值变宽，Ｄｑ－ｑ曲线变陡，ｆ（ａ）－ａ的左端点或右端点下降。     

试论小区地震活动的时间规律

为了探讨小区域内地震活动的时间规律。本文在中国大陆选择了11个地点分析其从远古至公元1990年间的破坏性地震（M≥4 3／4）的活动性。因而发现小区的地震活动规律主要表现于以大震为代表的地震活动分期上，破坏性地震的频率、集中程度与阶段性变化上，以及与所在地震区地震活动期的关系上，不同小区的地震活动特征有共性，有类型区别，更有各自的特殊性。     

新疆及其邻区强震活动与趋势预测

对１８８０￣１９９３年新疆及邻区７级以上强震活动特征进行了分析讨论，认为研究时段内７级以上强震活动有明显的活跃与平静交替现象。研究时段内的强震活动经历了５个轮回，每个轮回包括一个平静幕和一个活动幕，每个活动幕都有相对的主体活动区，主体活动区和７级以上单个强震都具有沿西昆仑－南天山－北天山－阿尔泰地震带往返迁移的特征。各地震带６级以上地震活动也具有明显的由西南向北东整体迁移的特征，并且这种时、空、强     

Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate

Contrary to assertions of widespread irreversible desertification in the African Sahel, a recent increase in seasonal greenness over large areas of the Sahel has been observed, which has been interpreted as a recovery from the great Sahelian droughts. This research investigates temporal and spatial patterns of vegetation greenness and rainfall variability in the African Sahel and their interrelationships based on analyses of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the period 1982–2003 and gridded satellite rainfall estimates. While rainfall emerges as the dominant causative factor for the increase in vegetation greenness, there is evidence of another causative factor, hypothetically a human-induced change superimposed on the climate trend.     

Water supply potential and optimal exploitation capacity of karst aquifer systems

The management of groundwater flow systems in karst regions appears, at present, to be the most important procedure for solving water deficiency problems during periods of low rainfall. Faced with a lack of data for characterizing the water supply potential of karst aquifers, analyses of spring hydrographs may provide valuable indirect information regarding the structure of karst hydrogeological systems. To estimate the optimal exploitation capacities of karstic sources, a stochastic-conceptual approach was applied in case studies from the Serbian karst. Water supply potentials were initially evaluated on the basis of groundwater budgets. Further steps towards defining optimal “exploitable” regimes included analyses of storage changes in karst water reservoirs under natural conditions and calculation of the potential expansion of currently tapped sources. The results obtained through these analyses are a significant contribution to feasibility studies and aid in the avoidance of problems of overexploitation.     

Seismic rotational displacement of gravity walls by pseudo-dynamic method: Passive case

Prediction of the seismic rotational displacements of retaining wall under passive condition is an important aspect of design in earthquake prone region. In this paper, the pseudo-dynamic method is used to compute the rotational displacements of rigid retaining wall supporting cohesionless backfill under seismic loading for the passive earth pressure condition. The proposed method considers time, phase difference and effect of amplification in shear and primary waves propagating through both the backfill and the retaining wall. The influence of ground motion characteristics on rotational displacement of the wall is evaluated. Also the effects of variation of parameters like wall friction angle, soil friction angle, amplification factor, shear wave velocity, primary wave velocity, period of lateral shaking, horizontal and vertical seismic accelerations on the rotational displacements are studied. The rotational displacement of the wall increases substantially with increase in amplification of both shear and primary waves, time of input motion, period of lateral shaking and decreases with increase in soil friction angle, wall friction angle. The rotational displacements of the wall also increase when the effect of wall inertia is taken into account. Results are provided in graphical form.