Water supply potential and optimal exploitation capacity of karst aquifer systems

The management of groundwater flow systems in karst regions appears, at present, to be the most important procedure for solving water deficiency problems during periods of low rainfall. Faced with a lack of data for characterizing the water supply potential of karst aquifers, analyses of spring hydrographs may provide valuable indirect information regarding the structure of karst hydrogeological systems. To estimate the optimal exploitation capacities of karstic sources, a stochastic-conceptual approach was applied in case studies from the Serbian karst. Water supply potentials were initially evaluated on the basis of groundwater budgets. Further steps towards defining optimal “exploitable” regimes included analyses of storage changes in karst water reservoirs under natural conditions and calculation of the potential expansion of currently tapped sources. The results obtained through these analyses are a significant contribution to feasibility studies and aid in the avoidance of problems of overexploitation.     

Seismic rotational displacement of gravity walls by pseudo-dynamic method: Passive case

Prediction of the seismic rotational displacements of retaining wall under passive condition is an important aspect of design in earthquake prone region. In this paper, the pseudo-dynamic method is used to compute the rotational displacements of rigid retaining wall supporting cohesionless backfill under seismic loading for the passive earth pressure condition. The proposed method considers time, phase difference and effect of amplification in shear and primary waves propagating through both the backfill and the retaining wall. The influence of ground motion characteristics on rotational displacement of the wall is evaluated. Also the effects of variation of parameters like wall friction angle, soil friction angle, amplification factor, shear wave velocity, primary wave velocity, period of lateral shaking, horizontal and vertical seismic accelerations on the rotational displacements are studied. The rotational displacement of the wall increases substantially with increase in amplification of both shear and primary waves, time of input motion, period of lateral shaking and decreases with increase in soil friction angle, wall friction angle. The rotational displacements of the wall also increase when the effect of wall inertia is taken into account. Results are provided in graphical form.     

河南省汛期气候预测概念模型

在河南省6种雨型的基础上，分析了物理要素海温、季风、西太平洋副高及气候因子和河南省汛期降水的关系，给出了河南省汛期降水的气候预测概念模型。通过逻辑推理，可以具体预测雨型。     

The Character of Shear-wave Splitting in Marble in the Critical State of Rupture

This paper mainly observed and analyzed the character of shear-wave splitting in rock specimens while they were in the critical state of rupture. The rock specimens for study are made of Laizhou marble from Shandong, China. A series of records were obtained from two rock specimens when they were in the critical state of rupture. The result shows that, in the critical state just before rock rupture, there may be the phenomenon of rise and fall in the time delay of shear-wave splitting, even though the load was kept constant. That is to say, the time delay of shear-wave splitting may have a falling process before rock rupture.     

近年来我国地面反射率的若干重要特征

本文利用１９８６－１９９０年我国１４个具有地理、气候代表性的日射观测的实测资料，分析了我国地面反射率的若干最新特征，为认识和研究我国地理和气候变化提供了某些依据。     

IP效应对电磁感应响应的影响研究

严密的推理和大量精确的计算结果,揭示了IP效应对EM响应的影响.在野外常见的极化条件下,在电磁法工作频率范围(1～1000Hz)内,绝对影响过极大值.相对影响可达10%以上.充电率m越大.极化时间常数T对球体本身的感应时间常数r之比越小、频率响应系数c越小.影响越大,山响的频率越高.     

云南地区6级以上地震前M_s≥4.7级地震的时空特征标度

本文研究了1920年以来,云南地区M_s≥4.7级地震的时间序列及空间分布的特征标度。结果表明,当区内M_s≥4.7级地震在时间序列上出现我们定义的平静段和活跃段后,分别于418天和312天内即可能发生6级以上地震,对应率分别为71％和87％,1920年以来云南11次M_s≥6.8级地震前,出现活跃和平静特征标度的各5次。在空间上绝大多数(80％)大震震中处于我们所定义的长时间大范围空白缺震背景区或相对少震区内,仅少数(20％)位于4.7级以上地震相对密集区内或附近。4.7级以上地震上述时间序列及空间分布特征标度,可以作为云南6级,特别是6.8级以上地震中期或短期预测的判据和指标。同时可以看出,云南6级以上地震前,4.7级以上地震在时空演变上,经历了从无序到有序的演化过程。     

中国东部地区断裂的缜奏性活动

对中国东部地区断裂的节奏性活动进行了探讨,认为这种节奏性活动主要根据构造地貌进行鉴别,并可分为六种型式:稳定—蠕滑错动;稳定—急速错动;蠕滑—急速错动;交替型蠕滑错动;交替型急速错动和复式错动。地震活动周期与断裂的节奏性活动相关联。断裂活动产生强震的型式有单发式、对偶式和连发式,这三种形式分别出现在不同的断裂中,并取决于不同区域、不同断裂的活动特征。     

准时间可预报复发行为与断裂带分段发震概率估计

反不确定性引入“时间可预报模式”，可将一次地震之后的平静时间表示成与这次地震位错量在小呈正相关的随机变量。称这种带有不确定性的地震原地复发行为为“准时间可预报行为”。对于历史地震资料，准时间可预报复发行为可由地震后平静时间的对数与地震烈度的回归方程。文中给出了估计一条枯断裂带不同段落以上一次地震烈度值为背景的平均复发时间间隔的方法，以及可用 于对未来地震潜势进行不确定评价的实时概率模型，并以鲜水河     

布朗族的天文历法知识刍议

布朗族使用傣历（祖葛历）,以月份结合物候变化指导生产,生活中使用７ｄ（天）为１轮的纪日制度,并将７个日名赋予不同寓意。这种状况可能距今只有２００余年的历史,在此以前的历法,由于没有文字记录而被完全淡忘了,但从其先民的崖画和口头流传的传说中,有阴阳并重、同时崇拜太阳和月亮的内容看,是处于阴阳合历初期的“物候历”,其内容应与佤族（清朝时分化）的阴阳历相似。