南海热带气旋的气候变化及强度预测方法研究

建立南海海域1949～2007年6～10月份热带气旋（以下简称TC）年、月频数和TC中心强度的历史资料统计文件,分析TC的年月变化。结果表明：近50年,TC具有10a左右的周期变化,1964～1974年和1985～1995年为南海两个强台风以上级别频发期,1997～2006年为TC频数少且强度弱的时期。同时TC强度的空间分布分析结果表明,中沙北部海域和东沙西部海域为强台风多发生区,各月TC强度分布特征明显不同,且其加强通道具有南-北-南阶段性变化。另外,通过分别对1949～2007年北半球500hPa高度场及海温场的格点资料和TC强度历史资料的相关计算,选取高相关格点,根据相关权重组成组合因子,构建二次型预测方程,做年月TC强度预测。预测检验结果显示,冬季的高度场和海温场对次年的TC强度预测效果良好。     

利用磷灰石裂变径迹资料反演合肥盆地古地温和估计沉降率与剥蚀率

利用合肥盆地内６个磷灰石裂变径迹样品资料,反演模拟了该盆地自侏罗纪晚期以来各时代地层古地温变化,估算了沉降率与剥蚀率．模拟结果与其他地质资料推论一致,它揭示出该盆地南北两地存在不同的构造变化和受热史,反映了大别山构造发展对盆地南北两地区影响的差异．盆地南部靠近大别山地区的晚侏罗世地层在白垩纪早期埋藏温度曾大于１２０℃;早白垩世后期的构造抬升（剥蚀率约１３０ｍ／Ｍａ）使温度降至３０—４０℃;自白垩纪后期始,该地区一直处于动荡的但总体为持续抬升的构造环境中．盆地北部地区晚侏罗世与早白垩世早期地层在白垩纪期间埋藏温度曾达到和超过１００℃,但随后的大幅度构造抬升（剥蚀率约１９０ｍ／Ｍａ）使其温度降至３０—６０℃;第三纪早期,局部区域的裂陷（沉降率约６０ｍ／Ｍａ）使温度又升至８０℃左右．指出合肥盆地构造演化大体可分形成、隆升、局部裂陷和再隆升４个阶段．     

川西前陆盆地蓬莱镇组层序、岩相古地理特征及演化

在川西前陆盆地蓬莱镇组层序特征研究基础上,将川西前陆盆地蓬莱镇组划分为5个沉积层序,每个沉积层序都由进积和退积体系域组成。以体系域为编图单元,采用体系域压缩法,编制了川西前陆盆地上侏罗统蓬莱镇组9张层序岩相古地理图。编图表明,川西前陆盆地蓬莱镇期古地理演化总体上显示盆扩/盆缩的特点,并具有明显的继承性、不均一性、阶段性和同步性。与传统的岩相古地理图相比,层序岩相古地理图具有动态、精确、等时、成因连续和勘探实用等优点。     

Formation of arcs and backarc basins inferred from the tectonic evolution of Southeast Asia since the Late Cretaceous

Results of the geological and geophysical surveys in the Daito ridges and basin in the northern West Philippine Basin suggest that the Daito Ridge was an arc facing toward the south from the Late Cretaceous to the Early Tertiary. The Late Cretaceous and Tertiary history of Southeast Asia is evaluated based on these data in the Daito ridges and basins and reconstructed based on overall plate kinematics that have operated in this area. During the Late Cretaceous, the Daito Ridge and the East Philippine Islands were positioned along the boundary between the Indian and Pacific Plates. The western half of the Philippines setting on the Indian Plate approached from the south and collided with the East Philippine–Daito Arc either during the latest Paleocene or the earliest Eocene. It is inferred that the bulk of the Philippine archipelago rotated clockwise and Borneo spun counterclockwise during the Tertiary.From the reconstruction, the formation of backarc basins and their spreading direction are assessed. As a result, some primary causes and significant characteristics are suggested for the opening of backarc basins in Southeast Asia. First, opening of some backarc basins commenced with or was triggered by collisions. Second, backarc basins opened approximately parallel to oceanic plate motion. Third, the formation of some backarc basins was triggered by the approach of a hot spreading center. Fourth, the spreading mode or direction of backarc basins was greatly affected by the configuration of the surrounding continent and was also rearranged to spread approximately parallel to oceanic plate motion.The formation of backarc basins and their spreading direction can be reasonably explained by plate kinematics. However, the generative force responsible for their formation is possibly within the subduction system, particularly to form horizontal tensional force in backarc side.     

Planetary-Scale Wave Structures of the Earth’s Atmosphere Revealed from the COSMIC Observations

GPS radio occultation（GPS RO） method,an active satellite-to-satellite remote sensing technique,is capable of producing accurate,all-weather,round the clock,global refractive index,density,pressure,and temperature profiles of the troposphere and stratosphere.This study presents planetary-scale equatorially trapped Kelvin waves in temperature profiles retrieved using COSMIC（Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,Ionosphere,and Climate） satellites during 2006-2009 and their interactions with background atmospheric conditions.It is found that the Kelvin waves are not only associated with wave periods of higher than 10 days（slow Kelvin waves） with higher zonal wave numbers（either 1 or 2）,but also possessing downward phase progression,giving evidence that the source regions of them are located at lower altitudes.A thorough verification of outgoing longwave radiation（OLR） reveals that deep convection activity has developed regularly over the Indonesian region,suggesting that the Kelvin waves are driven by the convective activity.The derived Kelvin waves show enhanced（diminished） tendencies during westward（eastward） phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation（QBO） in zonal winds,implying a mutual relation between both of them.The El Nino and Southern Oscillation（ENSO） below 18 km and the QBO features between 18 and 27km in temperature profiles are observed during May 2006-May 2010 with the help of an adaptive data analysis technique known as Hilbert Huang Transform（HHT）.Further,temperature anomalies computed using COSMIC retrieved temperatures are critically evaluated during different phases of ENSO,which has revealed interesting results and are discussed in light of available literature.     

半潜式起重平台系泊系统设计与优化研究

近年来,国内兴起了大力发展半潜式起重平台的势头,系泊系统的设计与优化是该类型平台开发中的关键问题之一。采用时域方法对半潜式起重平台系泊系统进行耦合动力分析,研究系泊系统主要参数对其动力响应特性的影响,并给出主要参数的设计优化流程,在此基础上,以能够满足安全校核且性能较优的系泊方案为目标,对该半潜式起重平台的系泊系统进行优化设计,并研究单根系泊缆发生破断对整个系泊系统的影响。结果表明:基于主要参数对系泊性能的影响规律,经优化设计得到的系泊方案,预留的安全欲度适中,能够保障半潜式起重平台在恶劣海况下的生存能力,同时具备较好的经济性。     

基于恒速压汞技术研究页岩气储层孔隙结构:以湘西北地区五峰组页岩为例

页岩气储层孔隙结构是页岩气富集成藏、储层评价和优选有利区的关键参数,区分孔隙和喉道是表征页岩气储层孔隙结构的关键。本文选择4块具有不同渗透率的湘西北地区奥陶系五峰组页岩为研究对象,基于恒速压汞实验讨论孔隙和喉道的大小、分布特征及其相互关系以及与渗透率的联系。结果表明:具有不同渗透率的页岩样品表现为较为相近的孔径分布特征但差异较大的喉道分布特征。页岩样品渗透率的大小与孔隙半径没有明显相关关系;喉道大小及其分布特征是控制低渗储层孔隙结构的关键要素之一。渗透率较低页岩样品的喉道以喉道半径小且集中分布为特征,而渗透率较大页岩样品的喉道以喉道半径大呈分散分布但主要以大喉道为特征。喉道特征是研究页岩气储层储集空间和吸附能力的重要部分,在以后对页岩气的勘探开发中应特别注意及重视。     

高分辨率遥感技术在厦门海湾生态环境调查中的应用

对于局部区域研究，高分辨率卫星遥感及其影像的智能化处理技术是获取信息的新手段．本文以IKONOS遥感影像在厦门海湾的应用为例，探讨高分辨率遥感卫星影像应用于海湾生态环境调查与分析的应用技术．通过分析高分辨率影像地物特征，提出高分辨率遥感影像的重要处理技术：采用不同缩放尺度进行分类和利用空间特征及纹理结构进行专题信息提取。     

结节区视角下江苏省区域空间结构演化研究——对区域共振轴结构模式的探讨

长时间序列的区域空间结构的演化规律, 一直是空间结构模式分析中的薄弱环节, 而历史过程的长时段分析, 有助于对区域空间结构现状研判和对未来优化提供科学支撑。本文从结节区的视角, 对江苏省域地区过去2800 年间发展轴线产生、发展、主导、跃迁的全过程进行系统解析。选取春秋、隋、元、今4 个时点作点-轴、双核型空间结构的横向比较, 认为存在4 个发展阶段:春秋至南北朝、隋至南宋、元至清、民国至今;其中, 元至清和民国至今阶段, 分别发现区域发展中存在双核共振轴、港城共振轴现象。共振轴结构模式指区域中心城市(或市区)轴与门户港城(或港口县域)轴及其交通链接所形成的一种空间结构现象, 存在于过渡型区域发展背景下的沿江与沿海区域。最后, 从城市职能的变迁、点-轴型发展轴的跃迁、现代交通线的布局、相邻区域(上海)4 方面对江苏省区域空间结构的演化机理进行分析。     

Impacts of systematic precipitation bias on simulations of water and energy balances in Northwest America

At high latitudes and in mountainous areas, evaluation and validation of water and energy flux simu-lations are greatly affected by systematic precipitation errors. These errors mainly come from topographic effects and undercatch of precipitation gauges. In this study, the Land Dynamics （LAD） land surface model is used to investigate impacts of systematic precipitation bias from topography and wind-blowing on water and energy flux simulation in Northwest America. The results show that topographic and wind adjustment reduced bias of streamflow simulations when compared with observed streamflow at 14 basins. These systematic biases resulted in a -50%-100% bias for runoff simulations, a -20%-20% bias for evapotranspiration, and a -40%-40% bias for sensible heat flux, subject to different locations and adjustments, when compared with the control run. Uncertain gauge adjustment leads to a 25% uncertainty for precipitation, a 20% 100% uncertainty for runoff simulation, a less-than-10% uncertainty for evapotranspiration, and a less-than-20% uncertainty for sensible heat flux.