云龙台固体潮观测对地震监测能力的评价

对云龙台的水管倾斜仪观测数据进行了倾斜固体潮的潮汐分析，发现ＥＷ和ＮＳ两个分量的振幅因子异常变化与地震有较好的对应关系。由于潮汐分析方法本身的科学性和严密性，故振幅因子误差小、精度高；又因为对潮汐谐波波群的选择，避免了以太阳日为基础的周期性干扰，Ｍ２、Ｏ１波振幅因子的地震异常识别则简易可行，并且可信度高。云龙台的固体潮观测具有较强的地震监测能力。     

Modelling the biogeochemistry of a tidal flat ecosystem with EcoTiM

The ecological tidal model simulates the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphate, and silicate and describes the tidal, diurnal, and annual dynamics of the back barrier area of the island Spiekeroog in the German Bight. The region is characterized by strong tidal currents and extensive tidal flats. It is strongly influenced by the conditions in the southern part of the German Bight. This model study investigates the dependence of the model behavior on the boundary conditions and the forcing. The effect of short- and long-term sea level rise on nutrient and plankton dynamics is analyzed. As the model is set up as semi-Lagrangian with only a coarse approximation of the hydrodynamics, the seasonal and intratidal variability in the biogeochemical cycling can only be reproduced qualitatively. By varying the boundary conditions, the intrinsic dynamics of the back barrier area can be separated from boundary condition effects. This study shows that any agreement between model results and field data cannot be expected without correct boundary conditions. The seasonal variability is of major importance, while higher-frequency variability only plays a minor role.     

Hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics in the German Bight. A focus on observations and numerical modelling in the East Frisian Wadden Sea

This work deals with analysis of hydrographic observations and results of numerical simulations. The data base includes acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCP) observations, continuous measurements on data stations and satellite data originating from the medium resolution imaging spectrometer (MERIS) onboard the European Space Agency (ESA) satellite ENVISAT with a spatial resolution of 300 m. Numerical simulations use nested models with horizontal resolutions ranging from 1 km in the German Bight to 200 m in the East Frisian Wadden Sea coupled with a suspended matter transport model. Modern satellite observations have now a comparable horizontal resolution with high-resolution numerical model of the entire area of the East Frisian Wadden Sea allowing to describe and validate new and so far unknown patterns of sediment distribution. The two data sets are consistent and reveal an oscillatory behaviour of sediment pools to the north of the back-barrier basins and clear propagation patterns of tidally driven suspended particulate matter outflow into the North Sea. The good agreement between observations and simulations is convincing evidence that the model simulates the basic dynamics and sediment transport processes, which motivates its further use in hindcasting, as well as in the initial steps towards forecasting circulation and sediment dynamics in the coastal zone.     

Response of the Changjiang diluted water around Jeju Island to external forcings: A modeling study of 2002 and 2006

The Changjiang diluted water (CDW) around Jeju Island between 2002 and 2006 in response to external forcings, such as wind, tidal forcing and low river discharge, is studied using a three-dimensional model. The model results suggest that wind largely determines spatial differences of CDW and the freshwater export toward Jeju Island between two years. In 2006, when northwestward wind blows during mid June to mid August, the wind-induced Ekman flow causes a broad northeastward extension of CDW and carries a significant amount of freshwater northeastward Jeju Island in August. On the other hand, in 2002 northward wind during mid July to early August drives the CDW to the southwest of Jeju Island, and thereafter the CDW is mainly advected northeastward along the Cheju Current during mid August when the wind becomes weak. Therefore, the amount of freshwater around Jeju Island increases in September, not in August. The response to tidal forcing shows that tide-induced vertical mixing tends to enhance a meander of CDW around Changjiang Bank and shift the CDW flowing into the Yellow Sea southeastward toward Jeju Island. As a result, the amount of freshwater toward Jeju Island becomes larger than that in no-tides case. The summer low river discharge as a flood control scenario has little influence on the spatial behavior of CDW around Jeju Island although the discharge contributes to the amount of freshwater around Jeju Island.     

强震成组活动与潮汐力调制触发

本文应用构造场体成组震模型的研究结果，探讨了中国大陆Ms≥7．0地震的成组活动的引潮力的调制触发关系。研究表明：我国陆区7级以上强震明显受潮汐力的调制触发，且主要表现为对活跃期内（即成组发生的）7级强震的调制触发。平静期内的7级以上地震基本不受潮汐力触发，而活跃期内82．4％的7级强震发生在受潮汐力触发的月相期，比本底概率高出36．4％。因此，潮汐力的调制触发对于强震活跃期的判断和活跃期内强震的临震（时间）预测有实际意义。文章还分析了潮汐力触发与强震活动的区域动力学环境之间的关系，并用构造场体成组孕震模型讨论了潮汐力对强震活动触发作用的力学机制。     

MODELING THE FATE AND TRANSPORT OF HYDROPHOBIC ORGANIC COMPOUNDS IN AN UNSTEADY RIVER-ESTUARINE SYSTEM

1 INTRODUCTION Extensive literature (Brown et al., 1985; Sawhney et al., 1981; Bierman and Swain, 1982; Connolly, 1980; Lopez-Avila and Hites, 1980; O扖onnor, 1988) described lots of sorbed pollutants or toxic substances in bed sediments of rivers, even after the effluent was halted for a long time. This is particularly true for hydrophobic organic compounds that can be sorbed on the particles and accumulated in the river bed sediments (Karickhoff et al., 1979). Pollution events of…     

A two-dimensional analytical solution of groundwater responses to tidal loading in an estuary and ocean

Previous studies on tidal dynamics of coastal aquifers have focussed on the inland propagation of oceanic tides in the cross-shore direction, a configuration that is essentially one-dimensional. Aquifers at natural coasts can also be influenced by tidal waves in nearby estuaries, resulting in a more complex behaviour of head fluctuations in the aquifers. We present an analytical solution to the two-dimensional depth-averaged groundwater flow equation for a semi-infinite aquifer subject to oscillating head conditions at the boundaries. The solution describes the tidal dynamics of a coastal aquifer that is adjacent to a cross-shore estuary. Both the effects of oceanic and estuarine tides on the aquifer are included in the solution. The analytical prediction of the head fluctuations is verified by comparison with numerical solutions computed using a standard finite-difference method. An essential feature of the present analytical solution is the interaction between the cross- and along-shore tidal waves in the aquifer area near the estuary’s entry. As the distance from the estuary or coastline increases, the wave interaction is weakened and the aquifer response is reduced, respectively, to the one-dimensional solution for oceanic tides or the solution of Sun (Sun H. A two-dimensional analytical solution of groundwater response to tidal loading in an estuary, Water Resour Res 1997;33:1429–35) for two-dimensional non-interacting tidal waves.     

中强震前形变固体潮汐资料短期信息的提取

分析了各种潮汐观测资料处理方法,针对短期异常提取的要求,提出了适合提取短期异常信息的潮汐资料处理方法,对其计算公式进一步推导和展开。应用这些方法对华北地区和西南地区的重力、倾斜、应变等形变观测量进行了计算。对地震前潮汐因子、时间滞后、响应比等潮汐参数的异常信息进行了提取与分析;突出了震源区附近的短期异常信息,并分析总结其变化特征。     

井水位对地壳应力-应变响应灵敏度的研究

从丰镇井水位的潮汐效应、地表水体荷载效应与列车荷载效应分别计算出井水位对各类应力 应变的响应灵敏度,其结果分别是6.6×10-9体应变/mm、9.6×10-7体应变/mm与1.0×10-2体应变/mm;在此基础上,推算出该井水位在张北地震前60mm的缓升型异常相应的含水层应变与应力前兆的量级为5.76×10-5体应变与2.3kPa。     

Migrating sand waves

A simple mathematical model is described, which reproduces the major features of sand waves' appearance and growth and in particular predicts their migration speed. The model is based on the linear stability analysis of the flat configuration of the sea bottom subject to tidal currents. Attention is focused on the prediction of the complex growth rate that bottom perturbations undergo because of both oscillatory fluid motions and residual currents. While the real part _r of controls the amplification or decay of the amplitude of the bedforms, the imaginary part _i is related to their migration speed. Previous works on the migration of the sand waves (Németh etal. 2002) consider a forcing tide made up by the M2 constituent (oscillatory period equal to 12 h) plus the residual current Z0 and predict always a downcurrent migration of the bedforms. However, field cases exist of upcurrent-migrating sand waves (downcurrent/upcurrent-migrating sand waves mean bedforms moving in the direction of the steady residual tidal current or in the opposite direction, respectively). The inclusion of a tide constituent characterized by a period of 6 h (M4) is the main novelty of the present work, which allows for the prediction of the migration of sand waves against the residual current Z0. Indeed, the M4 tide constituent, as does also the residual current Z0, breaks the symmetry of the problem forced only by the M2 tide constituent, and induces sand-wave migration. The model proposed by Besio etal. (2003a) forms the basis for the present analysis. Previous works on the subject (Gerkema 2000; Hulscher 1996a,b; Komarova and Hulscher 2000) are thus improved by using a new solution procedure (Besio etal. 2003a) which allows for a more accurate evaluation of the growth rate for arbitrary values of the parameter r, which is the ratio between the horizontal tidal excursion and the perturbation wavelength. Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg