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“00.7”北京特大暴雨模拟中气象资料同化作用的评估 总被引:18,自引:0,他引:18
针对2000年7月4~5日北京地区的一次特大暴雨过程(24 h降水量达240 mm),文中利用MM5/WRF三维变分系统和MM5非静力模式,对此次特大暴雨过程中的各种气象监测资料(地基GPS大气柱水汽含量、常规探空、高空测风、地面常规观测和地面自动气象站)的同化作用通过观测系统数值试验进行了评估.结果表明与传统的客观分析方案相比较,MM5/WRF三维变分同化系统可直接引入非常规地基GPS大气柱水汽含量监测资料,提供更好的大气初始分析场.在三维变分同化方案下,各种大气监测资料均对改进此次特大暴雨模拟有不同程度的贡献,其中,常规探空和高空测风监测资料对改进预报结果的影响最大,地面常规观测和地面自动气象站观测资料作用次之,地基GPS大气柱水汽含量资料在与其他大气监测资料相互优势互补后,可很好地改善模式大气的分析质量,通过三维变分同化技术在区域数值天气预报模式初始场中引入地基GPS大气水汽监测网资料,使此次强降水个例的6 h和24 h测站降水预报的TS评分值在1,5,10和20 mm预报检验阈值下分别提高了1%~8%.研究结果对利用三维变分数值系统,评估气象监测网资料在改进高影响天气事件预报中的作用有借鉴意义. 相似文献
94.
A coarse-grid (resolution of order 7 km) model of the west coast of Britain is used to examine the sensitivity of computed storm-surge elevations and currents to a range of open-boundary conditions. The storm-surge period 1 to 26 March 1994 is used for this comparison, as it is a time of significant wind activity. Also current measurements in the North Channel of the Irish Sea together with coastal elevation measurements are available for model validation. Elevations and currents previously computed with a coarse-grid shelf-wide model can also be incorporated into the open-boundary condition to examine the influence of far-field effects. Initial model calculations with no far-field input show the importance of including shelf-wide effects from either the external shelf model, or by using observations from coastal gauges interpolated along the open boundary of the west-coast model. Provided the west-coast models open boundary is taken sufficiently far away from the region of interest, in this case the Irish Sea, then either a radiation condition or an elevation-specified condition is appropriate provided far-field effects are taken into account. If these are not included, then neither boundary condition is successful. For the radiation condition it is necessary to include both elevations and currents from a far-field model in order to reproduce the surge. In the case of an elevation-specified boundary condition far-field effects can be incorporated in hindcast calculations by including observed sea-level changes. In a storm-surge prediction calculation the radiation condition with a far-field model is required. Calculations show that computed elevations are spatially more coherent than currents, with flows through the western Irish Sea showing the greatest sensitivity to open-boundary formulation during storm events.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke 相似文献
95.
半变异函数的获取既有人为主观求取法,又有运用数学工具客观求取法,但是后者是今后的主要趋势。笔者在前人工作的基础上,归纳出多项式回归法、线性规划法和目标规划法三种求解半变异函数的成熟方法,以及非线性回归理论直接求解法、进化计算和积分面积三种新兴方法,并总结出各种方法的优缺点。最后概括出计算权重的两种方法。 相似文献
96.
多普勒雷达径向速度同化在淮河暴雨数值模拟中的应用 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
针对2007年7月淮河流域的一次强降雨过程,利用WRF中尺度数值模式及其三维变分同化系统(WRF-3DVAR),开展了多普勒雷达径向速度的三维变分同化对暴雨过程模拟效果的影响研究。结果表明:WRF-3DVAR能够有效地同化多普勒雷达径向速度资料,同化后使得模式初始场出现了一定的调整,包含更详尽的中尺度特征信息,进而显著改善模式对大暴雨过程前12h降水的模拟效果。在高分辨率中尺度数值模式中有效地利用多普勒天气雷达资料,能较好地提高中尺度降雨预报。 相似文献
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98.
Among all problems confronting the study of ancient permineralized (petrified) microscopic fossils, two stand out, the need for (1) accurate documentation of their three-dimensional morphology, and (2) direct analysis of their chemical composition and that of their surrounding mineral matrices. To address these problems we demonstrate the use of two techniques that we have recently introduced to Precambrian paleobiology: confocal laser scanning microscopy and Raman imagery. These techniques, both of which are non-intrusive and non-destructive, can provide data by which to characterize, in situ and at micron-scale resolution, the cellular and organismal morphology of thin section-embedded organic-walled fossils. In addition, Raman imagery provides direct analyses of the molecular–structural composition of the kerogenous components of such fossils and of their surrounding matrices, and a means to assess quantitatively the geochemical maturity of the preserved organics. Use of these techniques for studies of ancient microscopic fossils can provide information in three dimensions at high spatial resolution about their morphology and cellular anatomy, taphonomy and fidelity of preservation, composition and mode of preservation, and their biogenicity and syngenetic origin with the rocks in which they occur. 相似文献
99.
土钉支护现场测试及三维数值模拟分析 总被引:12,自引:3,他引:9
在进行土钉轴力和边坡位移测试的基础上 ,进行了土钉支护的三维数值模拟研究 ,对边坡位移、土钉轴力、塑性区分布等分别作了较为深入的探讨 ,认识到土钉与土体相互作用形成了一个完整的支护体系 ;基坑失稳破坏并非传统意义上的土体和土钉的破坏 ,而是土钉支护体系的整体性破坏 ;土钉支护体系的形成正是通过土钉的分担作用、应力传递与扩散作用来实现的 ,这是土钉支护作用的实质. 相似文献
100.
《China Geology》2019,2(3):342-353
Intermediate acid-complex rock masses with low-density characteristics are the most important prospecting sign in the Beiya area, of western Yunnan province, and provide a physical basis for good gravity exploration. It is usually difficult to obtaining solutions in connection with actual geological situations due to the ambiguity of the conventional gravity-processing results and lack of deep constraints. Thus, the three-dimensional (3D) inversion technology is considered as the main channel for reducing the number of solutions and improving the vertical resolution at the current stage. The current study starts from a model test and performs nonlinear 3D density-difference inversion called “model likelihood exploration”, which performs 3D inversion imaging and inversion of the known model while considering the topographic effects. The inversion results are highly consistent with those of the known models. Simultaneously, we consider the Beiya gold mine in Yunnan as an example. The nonlinear 3D density-difference inversion technology, which is restricted by geological information, is explored to obtain the 3D density body structure below 5 km in the mine area, and the 3D structure of the deep and concealed rock masses are obtained using the density constraints of the intermediate-acid-complex rock masses. The results are well consistent with the surface geological masses and drilling-controlled deep geological masses. The model test and examples both show that the 3D density-difference nonlinear inversion technology can reduce inversion ambiguity, improve resolution, optimize the inversion results, and realize “transparency” in deeply concealed rock masses in ore-concentrated areas,which is useful in guiding the deep ore prospecting. 相似文献