非常规综合物化探油气预测研究

非常规综合物化探方法油气预测研究中存在的主要问题为：缺乏系统与综合的基础性理论研究，异常形成的机理还不十分清楚，在参数的优化组合及异常的求取上尚有诸多不足。针对后一种情况，选择松辽盆地东岭构造作为实验区进行了有益的探索。选取低能吸附烃、放射性测氡及土壤热释光三类参数进行了优化组合，分别计算了综合指标MAE与MAC及组合熵，然后对各值采用泛克里格法求取异常，取得了良好的效果。下一步研究应从异常形成的机理入手，建立三维非常规综合物化探油气预测模式，以提高油气预测成功率。     

Seismic Hazard for Selected Sites in Greece: A Bayesian Estimate of Seismic Peak Ground Acceleration

A procedure for estimating maximum values of seismic peak ground accelerationat the examined site and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution in a future timeinterval of a given length is considered. The input information for the method areseismic catalog and regression relation between peak seismic acceleration at a givenpoint and magnitude and distance from the site to epicenter (seismic attenuation law).The method is based on Bayesian approach, which simply accounts for influenceof uncertainties of seismic acceleration values. The main assumptions for the method are Poissonian character of seismic events flow and distribution law of Gutenberg-Richter's type. The method is applied to seismic hazard estimation in six selected sitesin Greece.     

An automated strategy for calculation of phase diagram sections and retrieval of rock properties as a function of physical conditions

We formulate an algorithm for the calculation of stable phase relations of a system with constrained bulk composition as a function of its environmental variables. The basis of this algorithm is the approximate representation of the free energy composition surfaces of solution phases by inscribed polyhedra. This representation leads to discretization of high variance phase fields into a continuous mesh of smaller polygonal fields within which the composition and physical properties of the phases are uniquely determined. The resulting phase diagram sections are useful for understanding the phase relations of complex metamorphic systems and for applications in which it is necessary to establish the variations in rock properties such as density, seismic velocities and volatile‐content through a metamorphic cycle. The algorithm has been implemented within a computer program that is general with respect to both the choice of variables and the number of components and phases possible in a system, and is independent of the structure of the equations of state used to describe the phases of the system.     

The green revolution and poverty: a theoretical and empirical examination of the relation between technology and society

The paper deals with the effects of the green revolution (GR) technology on poverty both conceptually and empirically. It provides a brief overview of the GR debate and then presents a `slice' of this debate in detail - in particular, Lipton's and others' views on the supposed positive and negative benefits of the GR for the poor. The paper then provides a provocative critique of this literature for its underlying neo-Malthusianism of a specific type, for ignoring class issues in the analysis of the GR-poverty relation, and for treating this relation as a necessary relation. It subsequently presents an alternative statement on the GR-poverty issue, arguing that it is class relations that set limit within which population and technology work and affect poverty and that the GR-poverty relation is a contingent one, rather than necessary. In the light of the paper's criticisms and the alternative view it provides, a statistical analysis of the relation between the GR and the population factor on the one hand and poverty level and poverty reduction on the other in India is performed. This analysis is generally consistent with the paper's critique of the Liptonian framework.     

Structure sismique du socle paléozoı̈que du bassin des Doukkala,Môle côtier,Maroc occidental. Indication en faveur de l'existence d'une phase éo-varisqueSeismic structure of the Doukkala basin,Palaeozoic basement,western Morocco: a hint for an Eovariscan fold-and-thrust belt

Seismic profiles and well data from the Doukkala basin unravel the structure of the Palaeozoic basement and suggest that this coastal zone of western Morocco was affected by a compressive phase during the Frasnian. This resulted in the formation of upright, plurikilometric folds associated with reverse faults (North Doukkala), and of asymmetrical folds associated with mostly west verging ramps (South Doukkala). Folding involved all pre-Upper Frasnian formations and caused partial or total hiatus of Upper Frasnian–Strunian strata. This event can be correlated with the orogenic phase reported from more internal domains of the Morocco Hercynian belt, where it is referred to as the ‘Bretonne’ or ‘Eovariscan’ phase. To cite this article: H. Echarfaoui et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 13–20     

深井水氡主要干扰因素及映震效能分析

对甘肃省玉门青6井和平凉泾川泾3井两口深水井的水氡及辅助项目观测资料采用多元逐步回归、相关距平、一阶差分等方法进行处理，分析并排除了主要干扰因素，显示出两井在肃南5.4级、托莱6.0级和礼县5.1级地震前有明显异常，对两井的映震效能和地震预报前景进行了评价。     

井水位气压效率b值动态响应的断层-前兆场主应力组合模式

统计鲁03，04井流水作业闰的气压效率b值发现，在华北及其周缘绝大多数地震前两井前兆异常形态各异，经分析井孔定位断层走向与地震前兆场主应力的组合模式不同是产生上述现象的根本原因。     

数字遥测地震台网地震速报中文平台

叙述了数字遥测地震台网地震速报中平台程序基本流程和使用特点，程序采用Vi编程方法实现以二维坐标点阵结构显示汉字，与台网的交互软件（EDSP-IAS）中的WaveView程序自动链接运行，该闰台界面操作方便直观，易于定位地震参数，自动速报上网和自动寻呼。     

四川省房屋建筑易损性研究

研究房屋建筑易损性特征是防震减灾工作必不可少的环节之一，本文通过对多年工作的系统总结，得出四川省不同地区的房屋建筑易损性矩阵，全省房屋建筑抗震性能总体水平不高，这是造成地震灾害加重的主要原因之一，随着经济发展实力的提高，适当提高全省房屋建筑抗震设防水平可大大减轻特别是中强地震所造成的经济损失。     

历史地震资料与地震的中长期预测

故障诊断模型的基本内容是根据动态系统的外部特征来判断系统内部是否发生故障及确定故障发生的部位、时间和大小。由于故障诊断技术在监测及诊断故障的思路上和地震预报有很多相似之处，因此，把故障诊断技术应用于地震预报是可行的。由于该模型与其他数学模型一样，需要有较多的学习过程，所以历史地震资料在该模型中有重要作用。而其中的鲁棒性故障诊断模型在抑制各子模型的个性，凸现其共性方面有其特有的性质，所以把它作为一种综合模型，能抑制各子模型的个性，突出在地震预测方面的共性，从而提高预测的精确性。本文根据一个实例，说明了这种综合性模型的可行性。在文章的最后，由信息量的分析，说明了模型的鲁棒性特征。