2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震前中期和短期预测依据与启示

2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震发生在2020年度全国地震危险区内,震前作出了较好的中期（年度）和短期（月尺度和周尺度）预测,是少有的地球物理观测能力较低地区的强震前中期和短临预测较好震例。本文梳理了中期和短期预测的主要依据及其预测效能,研究表明,震前中期异常主要有流动地磁、多方法组合、5.0级地震平静打破、6.0级地震的准周期活动等;短期异常有4.0级地震活动图像、中源地震影响、于田垂直摆倾斜EW、于田GNSS基准站EW位移、和田GNSS基准站EW位移等。在总结震前分析预测过程的基础上,提出针对地球物理观测密度低地区的地震危险区论证和短临跟踪的建议,为该类地区的地震危险区判定及跟踪工作提供宝贵经验。     

华南晋宁期造山运动──地质年代学和地球化学制约

综合了前人和作者最新的地质年代学和地球化学研究成果,对华南晚元古代晋宁期造山运动的演化提供了化学地球动力学制约晚元古代早期（0．97－1．0Ga）的皖南、赣东北和桂北蛇绿岩在元素地球化学上具有相似的岛弧特征,但它们的Nd同位素组成明显不同新获得的高精度结石U－Ph年龄资料表明,桂北地区的本洞、三防和元宝山等三个主要花岗岩岩体均形成于820-825Ma,排除了本区有中元古代晚期花岗岩的存在．扬子南缘中元古代到三叠纪各个时代地层中的泥质沉积岩的TDM在晚元古代早期从约1．8Ga急剧降低至约1．3Ga,反映了这个时期的沉积物源区有大量新生馒源物质的加入．根据研究资料,提出了华南和扬子块体晋宁期陆-弧-陆碰撞模式     

Calibration and identifiability analysis of a water quality model to evaluate the contribution of different processes to the short-term dynamics of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients in the surface water of a rural catchment

A method that combines calibration and identifiability analysis of a dynamic water quality model to evaluate the relative importance of various processes affecting the dynamic aspects of water composition is illustrated by a study of the response of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients to a flood hydrograph in a rural catchment area in the Netherlands. Since the water quality model simulates the observed concentrations of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients reasonably well, the most important processes during the observed flood hydrograph could be determined. These were erosion, exchange between dissolved phase and bed sediments and denitrification. It is concluded that the method is very useful for identifying the most significant model parameters and processes that are essential for water quality modelling. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The sediment delivery ratio in a small catchment in the black soil region of Northeast China

The black soil region of northeast China,which covers the Provinces of Heilongjiang,Jilin and the Inner Mongolia autonomous region with black soil,chernozem and meadow soil,has experienced soil erosion since intense agricultural reclamation began approximately 100 years ago.However,the sediment delivery ratio,defined as the fraction of gross erosion that is transported from a given area in a given time interval,is still unclear.In this study,we calculated the delivery ratio and analysed changes in erosive processes within Hebei catchment from 1977 to 2007 based on an analysis of sediments of the Liudui reservoir.The original vegetation layer clearly identified the bottom of the reservoir when it was constructed in 1977;thus,the reservoir sediments could be precisely dated.The delivery ratio,calculated by comparing the sediment deposition in the reservoir with the total soil erosion in the upstream catchment,was found to be exponentially correlated（r² = 0.95,P < 0.01） with decreasing grain size,except for the fraction <0.002 mm.The delivery ratio for the clays（<0.002 mm） was low,averaging 0.10 during the study period, which indicated partial removal of clays from the reservoir.The changes in the reservoir deposition rate reflected the temporal changes in the erosion processes.The exceptionally high rainfall in 1998 was confirmed by the distributions of ¹³⁷Cs,²¹⁰Pb,and the grain-size of the sediments.Beginning from the position of the original grass layer,we defined three periods from 1977 to 2007 based on deposition rates:2.40 cm year^-1 from 1977 to 1997,5.60 cm year^-1 in 1998 due to unusually high rainfall,and 1.55 cm year^-1 from 1999 to 2007.The overall average deposition rate for the entire period was 2.26 cm year^-1.Precipitation was found to be the main factor affecting the soil erosion of the study area.     

山东及邻区地震重新定位及其与活动构造的关系

Earthquakes taking place from 1975 to 2010 in and around Shandong Province are relocated using double-difference （HypoDD） and Hypoinvers 2000 （Hypo2000） methods, after correction of the onset times of seismic phases. The results show that the relocated seismicity is clearly associated with regional tectonics in space, and is also in agreement with the existence of deep faults imaged by wide-angle and deep seismic reflection profiling ; most of the focal depths are in the range of 5 - 25km, and there are clearly two predominant depths： 10km and 16km, which are inferred to be on the bottom of the upper crust and in the middle crust, respectively. The pattern of seismic activity indicates that moderate and strong earthquakes are likely to occur in the brittle-ductile transition zone between the upper and the lower crust, as the outcome of the deep tectonic dynamic process and the movement and deformation of faults in the upper and shallow crust under the regional stress field.     

CSAMT法三维分辨能力及其物理机制

随着CSAMT法探测应用需求的日益增多,其分辨能力及其物理机制的研究成为人们不得不面对的问题.在CSAMT勘探中,几何效应、电流效应和感应效应是引起电磁场变化的三种物理机制,本文详细介绍了与地下电性结构密切相关的电流效应和感应效应.首先,利用CSAMT法对100 m×100 m×100 m的异常体进行了探测,研究表明存在两个畸变区域.利用电流效应对存在的两个畸变区域进行了解释,进一步研究表明当收发距为10 km时电流效应占据主要地位,感应效应位居次要地位,当收发距增大时电流效应比重下降,感应效应比重增大.选取坐标原点位于电偶极子中心,x方向为电偶极矩方向,z轴垂直向下,随后,研究了CSAMT法对异常体沿x、y及z方向长度变化时的探测灵敏度,研究表明CSAMT法对异常体沿x方向的变化最为灵敏、y方向变化次之、z方向最为迟钝,最后对以上现象给出了解析.     

华北克拉通东部地壳与地幔盖层结构——长观测距深地震测深剖面结果

利用文登—阿拉善左旗长观测距地震宽角反射/折射剖面东段资料,辩识出4组地壳震相和3组地幔盖层震相.采用二维射线追踪走时反演和正演拟合交替计算方法,得到了包括鲁东隆起和华北裂陷盆地在内的地壳和地幔盖层二维速度结构.研究结果表明:华北裂陷盆地基底深达6km以上,研究区壳内界面C1埋深约15km,C2界面深约25km,Moho面平均埋深约35km.上地壳速度6.0~6.1km·s-1,且横向变化较大;中地壳速度相对均匀约为6.2~6.4km·s-1;下地壳速度为6.5~7.0km·s-1,速度梯度较大.地壳平均速度与隆起和坳陷构造相关.研究区岩石圈底界面一般为75~80km,西端接近太行隆起构造时深至90km左右,向西呈明显加深趋势,地壳厚度呈现相同的增厚特征.地幔盖层上部速度8.0~8.2km·s-1,具明显正梯度特征.岩石圈平均速度在郯庐断裂带附近显著偏低.PmP和PLP震相存在不同程度的复杂性,意味着在本地区Moho界面和岩石圈界面有较为复杂的结构,可能具有一定厚度或过渡带性质.结合其他研究结果认为,地幔盖层和下地壳速度梯度、界面性质差异与华北克拉通破坏相关,意味着破坏是一个渐变、缓慢和不均匀的过程.郯庐断裂带附近的低速应是其为软弱带的证据.     

2015年尼泊尔M_S8.1地震的地壳重力均衡背景与地表形变响应特征

对2015年尼泊尔MS8.1地震的地壳均衡背景及其引起的地表形变特征进行了研究,结果表明:(1)尼泊尔MS8.1地震震中以南的印度板块岩石圈有效弹性厚度大约为9km,加载主要来自地幔;地震以北的拉萨地块岩石圈有效弹性厚度大约为2km,加载主要来自地表.(2)尼泊尔MS8.1地震震中以南地区的地壳均衡异常大约为-100mGal(10-5 m·s-2),但其北部的地壳均衡异常则为300~400mGal,尼泊尔MS8.1地震发生在地壳均衡负异常向正异常过渡的高梯度带上.(3)尼泊尔MS8.1地震使震中周围地区的地壳整体向南运动,最大水平位移超过1.5m,分布在震中东南.震中以北的同震垂向位移总体为负值,最大下降幅度超过0.5m,同震重力变化总体为正值,最大超过60μGal(10-8 m·s-2);震中以南的垂向位移总体为正值,最大升幅超过0.7m,同震重力变化总体为负值,最大降幅超过-120μGal.(4)尼泊尔MS8.1地震使"世界屋脊"喜马拉雅山脉产生沉降,最大同震降幅超过120mm,震后松弛效应将使"世界屋脊"持续缓慢下降.该强震使世界最高峰珠穆朗玛峰降低了2~3mm,有可能被GPS、InSAR等现代大地测量工具检测到.     

景泰M_S4.7地震前的定点形变异常

2014年11月15日,在甘肃省白银市景泰县发生MS4.7地震,震源深度10km。在震中附近200km以内,甘肃省地震局共安装架设有14台各类形变观测仪器。本文通过对这些形变观测仪产出的分钟值观测资料做小波分析发现,在地震前1个月内共有11台(套)形变观测仪记录到了异常变化。其中:SSY、TJ、DSQ、SSQ型观测仪记录到异常的同步性非常好;CZB型观测仪记录到的异常比较乱,没有固定的规律。通过对这些异常变化的总结能够为地震预测提供一定的判断依据。