不同生计类型农户的土地利用——三峡库区典型村的实证研究

采用分层随机抽样、参与式农村评估、地块调查等方法,研究了重庆市涪陵区珍溪镇3 个典型村样本农户的土地利用和土地投入的差异。共调查了227 户,2250 个地块。结果发现：① 除了6.17%的非农户土地撂荒、退耕或出租外,纯农户、一兼户、二兼户的土地利用类型均以集约为主。纯农户因年龄结构老龄化,劳动力供应不足,相对粗放的耕地面积为48.95%。一兼户相对集约利用的面积比例为71.08%。二兼户相对集约利用的面积比例为67.20%。② 土地投入有明显差异。纯农户每公顷农业劳动力投入少,劳动力老龄化;由于缺乏资金,农业机械及省工性投入少,多选择农家肥及磷肥、碳铵等价格较低的传统肥料。一兼户劳动力投入的数量与质量都最高,有长期投资农业的意愿与动力,农业机械投资量最大,保持了较高的农家肥施用量,且各种化肥配合施用,用量适中;二兼户每公顷农业劳动力投入大,以老人与妇女为主;由于收入高,农业机械及省工性投入比纯农户多,首选价格高、省劳力的化肥。非农户无土地投入。`     

Effective typhoon characteristics and their effects on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting

This paper describes the identification of effective typhoon characteristics and the development of a new type of hourly reservoir inflow forecasting model with the effective typhoon characteristics. Firstly, a comparison of support vector machines (SVMs), which is a novel kind of neural networks (NNs), and back-propagation networks (BPNs) is made to select an appropriate NN-based model. The results show that SVM-based models are more appropriate than BPN-based models because of their higher accuracy and much higher efficiency. In addition, effective typhoon characteristics for improving forecasting performance are identified from all the collected typhoon information. Then the effective typhoon characteristics (the position of the typhoon and the distance between the typhoon center and the reservoir) are added to the proposed SVM-based models. Next, a performance comparison of models with and without effective typhoon characteristics is conducted to clearly highlight the effects of effective typhoon characteristics on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting. To reach a just conclusion, the performance is evaluated by cross validation, and the improvement in performance due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics is tested by paired comparison t-tests at the 5% significance level. The results confirm that effective typhoon characteristics do improve the forecasting performance and the improvement increases with increasing lead-time, especially when the rainfall data are not available. For four- to six-hour ahead forecasts, the improvement due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics increases from 3% to 18% and from 10% to 113% for Categories I (rainfall data are available) and II (rainfall data are not available), respectively. In conclusion, effective typhoon characteristics are recommended as key inputs for reservoir inflow forecasting during typhoons. The proposed SVM-based models with effective typhoon characteristics are expected to provide more accurate forecasts than BPN-based models. The proposed modeling technique is also expected to be useful to support reservoir operation systems and other disaster warning systems.     

Effects of a sill on selective withdrawal through a point sink in a linearly stratified fluid

Reservoir topography has significant effects on mechanism of selective withdrawal. We study selective withdrawal of a linearly stratified fluid through a point sink in a long rectangular reservoir with a sill at the bed experimentally and analytically. Experiments were conducted for various flow rates and sill heights to evaluate their effects on withdrawal layer in the inertial-buoyancy regime. Transition to the steady state is discussed in terms of dynamics of shear waves over the sill. The results show that in presence of a sill the withdrawal layer is thicker and higher in elevation. For flows controlled at the sill crest, the withdrawal layer thickness in the point-sink flow is almost equal to that in the similar line-sink flow. We propose an analytical relation for the withdrawal layer thickness in presence of a sill and confirm it by experiments.     

Discussion on the Abnormally Low Active Fault Slip Rate of the M_S 8. 0 Wenchuan Earthquake

Based on the collection of active fault slip rate data of large intra-continental shallow thrust earthquakes occurring in the triangular seismic region of the East Asia continent,a preliminary analysis has been performed with results showing that the Wenchuan,Sichuan, China earthquake ( MS = 8. 0) of May 12,2008 occurred on the Longmenshan Mountain active fault with an abnormally low slip rate.     

Research and Practice on the Crustal Deformation Mobile Monitoring Network Layout in the Hydropower Station Reservoir Area

According to the construction project of the crustal deformation mobile monitoring network in the cascade hydropower stations built in the lower reaches of Jinsha River,this paper analyzes the design ideas and layout principles of crustal deformation mobile monitoring used in the monitoring of reservoir induced earthquakes. This paper introduces three types of monitoring networks used in the Xiluodu reservoir and Xiangjiaba reservoir, as well as the work already undertaken,in order to provide a kind of reference for the related engineering construction and comprehensive monitoring of reservoir induced earthquakes.     

基于应急基础数据库的城市防震减灾能力评价指标研究

城市防震减灾能力是一个涉及因素众多的复杂体系,对它的评估也是涉及到地震科学、社会科学和经济科学的交叉学科问题。对城市承受地震灾害能力进行科学合理的评估并有针对性的加强其薄弱环节是减轻城市地震灾害的有效方法之一。在已有的防震减灾能力评价体系研究的基础上,利用现有的地震应急基础数据库数据项,提出一个简化的城市防震减灾能力指标体系,快速评估城市的防震减灾能力。     

抗震救灾过程中人才聚集效应探析——以汶川8.0级地震和玉树7.1级地震为例

人才聚集效应是人才聚集现象从量变到质变的过程,是在一定的时间和空间范围内,在和谐环境下,相关人才按照一定的相互联系相对集中在一起产生超过各自独立作用的效用。在汶川8.0级地震和青海玉树7.1级地震的抗震救灾过程中,人才聚集效应发挥了不可磨灭的作用,无数的生命被及时挽救,巨大的灾情得到有效的缓解。综合"物理空间"和"虚拟空间"两个角度,从人才规模、人才配置和激励因素等方面,就我国抗震救灾中人才聚集效应的发挥进行了研究,为人才聚集效应理论提供借鉴。     

南海北部第四系厚度分布图的编制与简要说明

收集南海北部大量多道地震和钻井资料,编制了该区域首幅第四系厚度分布图。第四系等厚线总体呈NEE向,特别是珠江口外大陆架最明显,莺歌海、琼东南呈NW-EW-NE向弧形,珠江口大陆架南部存在次一级NW向等厚线。第四系等厚线分布形态明显受到断裂构造控制。     

Late Quaternary Activity and Paleoearthquakes along the Nanyukou Segment of the Northern Piedmont Fault of Wutai Mountain

The northern piedmont fault of Wutai Mountain is located at the north of the Shanxi Graben system,which is the dominating fault of the south boundary of the Fanshi-Daixian depression. This paper discusses the fault activity and paleoearthquakes around the Nanyukou segment of the northern piedmont fault of Wutai Mountain during the late Quaternary through field investigation along the fault,measuring geomorphic deformation and excavating trenches at some important sites. From Nanyukou to the southwest of Shanhui,we find obviously dislocated alluvial fans,with strong neotectonic movement at these sites. Since nearly 20ka,the vertical average slip rate is 1. 55mm /a to 2. 0mm /a. However,since nearly 6ka,it has reached as high as 2. 3mm /a,which is twice that on other segments. 2 trenches were excavated around Nanyukou with 6 events discovered. The referenced ages of the events are before 7600a,6700a ～ 7600a,5321a ～ 5575a,4400a ～ 5400a,4200a ～ 4400a and after 1600a B. P. with approximate recurrence interval 1400a. The latest event is likely to be the earthquake occurring at 512 A. D. ,so it is necessary to do further work to verify this in the future.     

以2008年汶川8.0级地震为例分析地震触发的静态库仑应力计算的不确定性

人们常用地震产生的静态库仑应力变化解释地震的空间迁移和余震的空间分布规律,但是,在计算静态库仑应力场时,室内试验数据和观测资料往往无法对计算所涉及的参数进行足够的约束,而参数取值的不确定性会直接影响到静态库仑应力的计算结果。不同研究组得到的汶川地震产生的静态库仑应力变化结果并不一样,为研究不同计算模型和参数的选取对静态库仑应力计算的影响,我们通过建立模型并依次改变参数,分析比较了各个参数对计算结果的影响。结果表明:重力、接收断层位置和走向等的影响较小,其他参数均会对静态库仑应力变化量值和符号造成不同程度的影响,其影响在地震破裂面周边尤其明显,计算时参数敏感性分析不可忽略。